{"title":"Family policies and child skill accumulation","authors":"Emily G. Moschini , Monica Tran-Xuan","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the economic effects of two major family policies in the United States, the Child Tax Credit and the Child Care and Development Fund childcare subsidy, in an overlapping generations framework where altruistic parents invest in their child's skill using their own time and purchased childcare time. The model incorporates differences in the design of these policies and endogenizes low rates of childcare subsidy receipt by including application costs and subsequent rationing. We compare the effects of a recent child tax credit expansion with a spending-equivalent expansion of the childcare subsidy implemented by reducing access frictions. Across steady states, the childcare subsidy expansion generates a larger increase in average adult skill, which leads to larger welfare gains behind the veil of ignorance compared to the tax credit expansion. However, the two policies yield similar average welfare gains for adults who know their own skill level, and the tax credit benefits a larger share of this group.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101270"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A multisector perspective on wage stagnation","authors":"L. Rachel Ngai , Orhun Sevinc","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101269","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101269","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Low-skill workers are concentrated in sectors experiencing fast productivity growth, yet their real wages have stagnated and lagged behind aggregate productivity. We provide evidence demonstrating the importance of a multisector perspective. Central to our mechanism is the decline in the relative price of the low-skill intensive sector driven by its faster productivity growth. This dampens wage gains for low-skill workers by lowering the price of their output relative to their consumption basket, which is further reinforced by shifting them into the sector where less weight is placed on their labor. We calibrate the two-sector model to the 1980–2010 U.S. economy and find this mechanism to be quantitatively important. Our counterfactual analysis reveals that low-skill real wage growth would have nearly doubled if the observed aggregate productivity growth had been evenly distributed across sectors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101269"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Capitalization of intellectual property products does not explain the decline in the labor share","authors":"Simcha Barkai , Suresh Nallareddy , Maria Ogneva","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101268","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101268","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We reevaluate the role of the capitalization of Intellectual Property Products (IPP) in the decline in the labor share. Using the same aggregate U.S. data as <span><span>Koh et al. (2020)</span></span>, we show that the labor share has clearly declined in recent decades and that this decline does not depend on the capitalization of IPP. The approach of KSLZ, which estimates a linear time trend for the period 1929–2018, conflates a gradual and long-run increase in IPP investment with a decline in the labor share in recent decades. In addition, in both aggregate and industry data, we show that the increase in the rate of IPP investment is nearly fully offset by depreciation. As a consequence, the labor share of net value added and its decline in recent decades are insensitive to IPP capitalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101268"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monetary policy stabilization in a new Keynesian model under climate change","authors":"George Economides , Anastasios Xepapadeas","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We address the question of whether monetary policy is affected by the detrimental impact of climate change on an economy's productivity and, if so, whether policymakers should take it into account when designing policies to stabilize the business cycle. To do this, we develop a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a closed economy which incorporates a climate module that interacts with the economy. In this framework, monetary authorities choose the nominal interest rate on government bonds. The model is solved numerically using parameter values calibrated to the US economy. Our results, which are robust to both extensions and a large number of sensitivity checks, suggest non-trivial implications for the design of optimal monetary policy irrespectively of whether the shocks hitting the economy are standard economic shocks, climate shocks, or shocks to the price of energy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101260"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Aggregate fluctuations and the role of trade credit","authors":"Lin Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101258","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101258","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the aggregate implications of trade credit in a dynamic, general equilibrium model where heterogeneous entrepreneurs choose their lending and borrowing of trade credit in the presence of financial frictions. Motivated by empirical evidence, the model shows how trade credit flows from less constrained firms to more constrained ones, both in the cross-sectional distribution and in firms' response to heterogeneous financial shocks. In the face of an aggregate financial shock, entrepreneurs reduce their trade credit lending, further tightening their customers' borrowing constraints, resulting in an amplification of the initial shock. In contrast, when the financial shock only affects some, but not all, entrepreneurs, trade credit facilitates the flow of financing to entrepreneurs in financial distress, thereby mitigating its negative impacts. This mechanism, however, is only effective when the shock affects a sufficiently small number of entrepreneurs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unconventional monetary and fiscal policy","authors":"Jing Cynthia Wu , Yinxi Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101259","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101259","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We build a tractable New Keynesian model to jointly study four types of monetary and fiscal policy. We find quantitative easing (QE) and tax-financed fiscal transfers or government spending have similar effects on the aggregate economy. Compared with these three policies, conventional monetary policy is more inflationary. QE and transfers have redistribution consequences, whereas others do not. Ricardian equivalence breaks: tax-financed fiscal policy is more stimulative than debt-financed policy. Finally, we study optimal policy coordination and find that adjusting two types of policy instruments can stabilize three targets simultaneously: inflation, the aggregate output gap, and cross-sectional consumption dispersion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101259"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142659286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Means-tested programs and interstate migration in the United States","authors":"Álvaro Jáñez","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101256","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101256","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper quantifies the impact of means-tested programs – in particular, Medicaid and Public Housing – on the interstate mobility of their beneficiaries. Simulations from a structural model with heterogeneous workers and locations show that beneficiaries' mobility falls by 17.2 percent, with the greatest reduction occurring among the poorest beneficiaries. Around half of this effect stems from the lack of federal coordination in the programs' administrations, namely, the possibility that a moving beneficiary loses transfers despite being eligible for them. A policy that eliminates this risk raises overall welfare, with 5 percent of low-income households enjoying a welfare gain of 1.1 percent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101256"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142653737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Home construction financing and search frictions in the housing market","authors":"Miroslav Gabrovski , Victor Ortego-Marti","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the effects of financial frictions in construction on housing market dynamics. To this end, we build a search-theoretic model of the housing market in which there is endogenous entry of buyers and developers face credit constraints. We capture credit frictions by assuming that developers must search for financing before building a home à la <span><span>Wasmer and Weil (2004)</span></span>. Our model explores a novel channel that links credit frictions faced by developers to the housing market. We calibrate the model to quantify the size of the credit channel during the 2012–2019 housing market recovery. Through a series of counterfactuals, our model predicts that the credit channel had a large impact on housing liquidity, construction, and the vacancy rate. Furthermore, it accounts for around half of the rise in prices during the 2012-2019 housing market recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101253"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142654363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A job ladder model of executive compensation","authors":"Bo Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101257","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101257","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of managerial labor market competition on executive incentive contracts. I develop a dynamic contracting model that incorporates moral hazard, search frictions, and poaching offers. The model generates a job ladder along which executives can either use outside offers to renegotiate with the current firm or transition to outside firms. I show that poaching offers generate a new source of incentives, which explains a novel empirical finding whereby larger firms give executives a higher proportion of incentive compensation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101257"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Migration spillovers within families: Evidence from Thailand","authors":"Travis Baseler","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101255","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101255","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When a person migrates, are their family members more likely to migrate too? I estimate the causal impact of family migrant network size on migration decisions using household survey data from rural Thailand. Large but temporary labor demand shocks in a nearby city—originating from a national infrastructure program—provide plausibly exogenous variation in family members' migration decisions based on their ages at the time of the program. Among those too young to be directly impacted by the program, I find that each older family migrant increases their migration probability by about 5 percentage points. Further analysis suggests a role for better information about the destination in driving this impact. My findings imply that the short-run benefits of relieving migration constraints can underestimate the long-run benefits due to spillovers within the household.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101255"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142540230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}