Review of Economic Dynamics最新文献

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Unmarried births: Accounting and equilibrium analysis, 1960-1995 未婚生育:核算与平衡分析,1960-1995 年
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.12.001
John Kennes , John Knowles
{"title":"Unmarried births: Accounting and equilibrium analysis, 1960-1995","authors":"John Kennes ,&nbsp;John Knowles","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The share of births to unmarried women in the U.S. rose well above 30% in the 1990s, despite unmarried women having greater access to abortion and improved birth control. We show that an equilibrium matching model in which unmarried couples behave co-operatively can explain 97% of the rise in the UMB ratio as the response to a combination of well-documented shocks: rising divorce rates, access to abortion, and improved contraception. Equilibrium interactions among these factors are important; had the marital surplus remained constant, very little change in unmarried births would have occurred. We also find that reforms reversing accessibility of birth control or abortion would on their own do little to reverse these social trends.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139053884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting speculative hyperinflations in monetary models: A rejoinder 重新审视货币模型中的投机性恶性通货膨胀:反驳
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.11.005
Behzad Diba , Olivier Loisel
{"title":"Revisiting speculative hyperinflations in monetary models: A rejoinder","authors":"Behzad Diba ,&nbsp;Olivier Loisel","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.11.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.11.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this note, we present a formal proof of <span>Obstfeld and Rogoff</span>'s (<span>1983</span>, <span>2021</span><span>) claim that their fractional-currency-backing scheme eliminates the inflationary equilibria in the money-in-utility model. To do so, we fully articulate the optimization problem of consumers who have the option to redeem (part or all of) their cash for a small amount of goods at any date. We also relate the scheme to the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138516128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reassessing trade barriers with global production networks 利用全球生产网络重新评估贸易壁垒
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2022.12.001
Yuko Imura
{"title":"Reassessing trade barriers with global production networks","authors":"Yuko Imura","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2022.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2022.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper develops a two-country general equilibrium<span> model with forward-looking participation decisions on exporting and multinational production, and examines the effects of final-goods tariffs and intermediate-input tariffs. I show that permanent unilateral tariffs lead to a recession in the policy-imposed country. In the policy-imposing country, investment experiences a short-run boom while consumption falls immediately and persistently, with intermediate-input tariffs resulting in a larger contraction. At the firm level, the least productive exporters exit from the policy-imposing country, while the most productive ones relocate production there. Relative to a model without multinational firms, this production relocation partially offsets the contractionary effects of tariffs. Crucial to the short-run investment expansion and firms' participation in multinational production in the policy-imposing country is the persistence of tariffs. When tariffs are temporary, investment falls immediately, driving an immediate recession there, in contrast to permanent tariffs. Further, temporary tariffs induce hysteresis in firms' participation in exporting and multinational production, which in turn diminishes the expansionary effects of multinational entry.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77083042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Identifying preferences when households are financially constrained 在家庭经济拮据的情况下确定偏好
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.06.001
Andreas Tryphonides
{"title":"Identifying preferences when households are financially constrained","authors":"Andreas Tryphonides","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.06.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper shows that utilizing information on the extensive margin of financially constrained households can narrow down the set of admissible preferences in a large class of macroeconomic models<span>. Estimates based on Spanish aggregate data provide further empirical support for this result and suggest that accounting for this margin can bring estimates closer to microeconometric evidence. Accounting for financial constraints and the extensive margin is shown to matter for empirical asset pricing and quantifying distortions in financial markets.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87961359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal income taxation: An urban economics perspective 最优所得税:城市经济学视角
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.08.006
Mark Huggett , Wenlan Luo
{"title":"Optimal income taxation: An urban economics perspective","authors":"Mark Huggett ,&nbsp;Wenlan Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.08.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.08.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We derive an optimal labor income tax rate<span> formula for urban models that nests the Mirrlees model as a limiting case. Optimal tax rates are determined by traditional forces plus a new term arising from urban forces: house price<span>, migration and agglomeration effects<span>. Based on the earnings distribution, housing costs and housing tenure in large and small US cities, we find that in a benchmark model (i) the optimal income tax rate schedule is U-shaped, (ii) urban forces raise the optimal tax rate schedule at all income levels and (iii) adopting an optimal tax system induces agents with low skill levels to leave large, productive cities.</span></span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135298562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intertemporal substitution in labor supply: A meta-analysis 劳动力供应的跨时空替代:荟萃分析
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.10.001
Ali Elminejad , Tomas Havranek , Roman Horvath , Zuzana Irsova
{"title":"Intertemporal substitution in labor supply: A meta-analysis","authors":"Ali Elminejad ,&nbsp;Tomas Havranek ,&nbsp;Roman Horvath ,&nbsp;Zuzana Irsova","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>The intertemporal substitution (Frisch) elasticity of labor supply governs how structural models predict changes in people's willingness to work in response to changes in economic conditions or government fiscal policy. We show that the mean reported estimates of the elasticity are exaggerated due to publication bias. For both the intensive and extensive margins the literature provides over 700 estimates, with a mean of 0.5 in both cases. Correcting for publication bias and emphasizing quasi-experimental evidence reduces the mean intensive margin elasticity to 0.2 and renders the extensive margin elasticity tiny. A total hours elasticity of about 0.25 is the most consistent with empirical evidence. To trace the differences in reported elasticities to differences in estimation context, we collect 23 variables reflecting study design and employ </span>Bayesian and frequentist model averaging to address model uncertainty. On both margins the elasticity is systematically larger for women and workers near retirement, but not enough to support a total hours elasticity above 0.5.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136009627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Bayesian DSGE approach to modelling cryptocurrency 用贝叶斯 DSGE 方法模拟加密货币
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.09.006
Stylianos Asimakopoulos , Marco Lorusso , Francesco Ravazzolo
{"title":"A Bayesian DSGE approach to modelling cryptocurrency","authors":"Stylianos Asimakopoulos ,&nbsp;Marco Lorusso ,&nbsp;Francesco Ravazzolo","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We develop and estimate a DSGE model to evaluate the economic repercussions of cryptocurrency. In our model, cryptocurrency offers an alternative currency option to government currency, with endogenous supply and demand. We uncover a substitution effect between the real balances of government currency and cryptocurrency in response to technology, preferences and monetary policy shocks. We find that an increase in cryptocurrency productivity induces a rise in the relative price of government currency with respect to cryptocurrency. Since cryptocurrency and government currency are highly substitutable, the demand for the former increases whereas it drops for the latter. Our historical decomposition analysis shows that fluctuations in the cryptocurrency price are mainly driven by shocks in cryptocurrency demand, whereas changes in the real balances for government currency are mainly attributed to government currency and cryptocurrency demand shocks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202523000583/pdfft?md5=7ce08c68ceb0ea09523388a9003cbbd2&pid=1-s2.0-S1094202523000583-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134995167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Invariance of unemployment and vacancy dynamics with respect to diminishing returns to labor at the firm level 失业和空缺动态与公司层面劳动力回报递减的不变性
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.09.002
Björn Brügemann
{"title":"Invariance of unemployment and vacancy dynamics with respect to diminishing returns to labor at the firm level","authors":"Björn Brügemann","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper shows analytically that introducing diminishing returns to labor at the firm level into the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model, followed by recalibration, does not change aggregate dynamics of unemployment and vacancies. This invariance result holds for several standard calibration strategies developed for the model with constant returns, alternative bargaining solutions for the setting with diminishing returns, and different sources of diminishing returns. Invariance makes precise in which sense the common practice of abstracting from diminishing returns is innocuous. It provides an analytical benchmark for quantitative findings obtained in models that do combine a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides labor market with diminishing returns at the firm level.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202523000546/pdfft?md5=292e7cb54fd004ea5e701035ed4269d4&pid=1-s2.0-S1094202523000546-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135389183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the black-white gaps in labor supply and earnings over the lifecycle in the US 关于美国生命周期中劳动力供给和收入的黑白差距
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.04.001
Christopher Rauh , Arnau Valladares-Esteban
{"title":"On the black-white gaps in labor supply and earnings over the lifecycle in the US","authors":"Christopher Rauh ,&nbsp;Arnau Valladares-Esteban","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the US economy, Black men, on average, receive lower wages than White men, and the difference increases over the working life. The employment rate and the number of hours worked are also lower for Blacks, but the gap is nearly constant. Together these facts suggest that on-the-job human capital accumulation might explain the diverging wages. However, the wage gap and its evolution over the lifecycle cannot be explained by differences in accumulated experience or educational attainment for the cohort we analyze. Instead, the combination of experience and test scores measured at ages 17-22 accounts for the wage gap and its growth. We propose an on-the-job human capital accumulation model with heterogeneity in the initial human capital endowment and the lifelong ability to accumulate human capital, and endogenous labor supply at the extensive and intensive margins to explain the evolution of the Black-White wage gap over the lifecycle. We discipline the distribution of the ability to accumulate human capital using the power of test scores to predict earnings growth in the data. We find that if the pre-market distributions were the same for Blacks and Whites, the racial gap in hourly earnings would be closed by 84%, with the remaining gap opening throughout life due to higher labor supply amongst White men. That is, the unequal conditions with which men in the two groups enter the labor market are likely to be the key determinant of the differences over the lifecycle.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202523000169/pdfft?md5=c9541f67ea8262fab9dc2457245d2902&pid=1-s2.0-S1094202523000169-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135519227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation gap persistence, indeterminacy, and monetary policy 通胀差距持续性、不确定性和货币政策
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.08.007
Yasuo Hirose , Takushi Kurozumi , Willem Van Zandweghe
{"title":"Inflation gap persistence, indeterminacy, and monetary policy","authors":"Yasuo Hirose ,&nbsp;Takushi Kurozumi ,&nbsp;Willem Van Zandweghe","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.08.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.08.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Empirical literature has documented that the persistence of the gap between inflation and its trend declined after the Volcker disinflation. Previous studies into the source of the decline in inflation gap persistence have offered competing views while sidestepping the possibility of equilibrium indeterminacy. We examine the source of the decline by estimating a medium-scale </span>dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model<span> using Bayesian methods that allow for indeterminacy. We show that the Fed's change from a passive to an active policy response to the inflation gap or a decrease in firms' probability of price change can fully account for the decline in inflation gap persistence by ruling out indeterminacy that induces persistent economic dynamics.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135200684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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