{"title":"The paradox of price flexibility in an open economy","authors":"Daeha Cho , Kwang Hwan Kim , Suk Joon Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Empirical evidence suggests that the degree of price stickiness is not uniform around the world. Heterogeneous price stickiness introduces a new propagation mechanism of global demand shocks that lead to a </span>liquidity trap<span> for all countries, which we call the open-economy paradox of flexibility. We show that the severity of the paradox increases with the degree of trade and capital market openness, when home and foreign goods are Edgeworth substitutes and when the more affected home country runs a trade deficit. This implies that highly open trade and financial linkages are not desirable in terms of world welfare. We show that the inefficiencies generated by heterogeneous price stickiness can be reduced through two types of international policy coordination: i) an arrangement in which the country with relatively sticky prices raises the interest rates or ii) a monetary union.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 370-392"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86739279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financial constraints and economic development: The role of firm productivity investment","authors":"Galina Vereshchagina","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper demonstrates that accounting for firms' endogenous productivity growth over lifecycle plays an important role in understanding the link between financial and economic development. It incorporates firm productivity investment into a span-of-control model, and compares the effects of firm financing constraints arising in this model to the effects of the same constraints in the model in which firm productivity growth is assumed to be exogenous. It finds that, depending on the severity of firm financing constraints, endogenizing firm productivity growth increases the adverse effects of the constraints on steady state output by 1.5-3 times, both due to a large decrease in average productivity and due to a bigger equilibrium effect on capital used in production.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 322-342"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75698664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamic bank capital regulation in the presence of shadow banks","authors":"Arsenii Mishin","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Regulated banks expand relative to shadow banks in recessions and when credit spreads are high, while regulated banks shrink relative to shadow banks in expansions and when credit spreads are low. Motivated by these facts, I build a quantitative general equilibrium model with endogenous risk taking to study how competitive interactions between regulated banks and shadow banks affect optimal dynamic capital requirements. Limited liability and deposit insurance can lead regulated banks to provide socially inefficient risky loans when the returns on safer loans decline. Competition for scarcer funding can further lower the net returns on safe loans, making it more attractive for regulated banks to exploit the shield of limited liability with risky loans. Higher capital requirements can reduce inefficient risk at the cost of lower liquidity provision and some migration of credit from regulated banks to shadow banks. Accounting for the interactions of regulated and shadow banks can change the magnitude and direction of the optimal response of capital requirements to shocks that drive the business cycle. Moreover, Basel-III style rules that differentiate between the type of bank loans are much better at mimicking the Ramsey optimal capital requirements than standard rules that aggregate loans. The performance of such dynamic rules can be further improved once they are combined with a small static capital buffer.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 965-990"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134914877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Capital and labor taxes with costly state contingency","authors":"Alex Clymo , Andrea Lanteri , Alessandro T. Villa","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We analyze optimal capital and labor taxes in a model where (i) the government makes noncontingent announcements about future policies and (ii) state-contingent deviations from these announcements are costly. With Full Commitment, optimal announcements coincide with expected future taxes. Costly state contingency dampens the response of both current and future capital taxes to government spending shocks and labor taxes play a major role in accommodating fiscal shocks. These features allow our quantitative model to account for the volatility of taxes in US data. In the absence of Full Commitment, optimal announcements are instead strategically biased, because governments have an incentive to partially constrain their successors. The cost of deviating from past announcements generates an endogenous degree of fiscal commitment, determining the average level of capital taxes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 943-964"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134918629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Welfare-enhancing inflation and liquidity premia","authors":"David Andolfatto , Fernando M. Martin","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate what principles should govern the evolution and maturity structure of the national debt when nominal government securities constitute an important form of exchange media. Even in the absence of government funding risk, we find a rationale for issuing nominal debt in different maturities, purposely mispricing long-term debt, and growing the nominal debt to support a strictly positive inflation target. The policy of discounting long-term debt and supporting a strictly positive inflation target provides superior risk-sharing arrangements for clienteles characterized by different degrees of patience. Pareto improvements are possible only if these policies are offered jointly.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 1036-1047"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134918633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The extent of downward nominal wage rigidity: New evidence from payroll data","authors":"Daniel Schaefer , Carl Singleton","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2022.11.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2022.11.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use over a decade of representative payroll data from Great Britain to study the nominal wage changes of employees who stayed in the same job for at least one year. We show that basic hourly pay drives the cyclicality of marginal labour costs, making this the most relevant measure of wages for macroeconomic models that incorporate wage rigidity. Basic hourly pay adjusts much less frequently than previously thought in Britain, particularly in small firms. We find that firms compress wage growth when inflation is low, which indicates that downward rigidity constrains firms' wage setting. We demonstrate that the empirical extent of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) can theoretically cause considerable long-run output losses. Combined, our results all point to the importance of including DNWR in macroeconomic and monetary policy models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 60-76"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202522000631/pdfft?md5=ea6f335194e247785b7f75cce15ce680&pid=1-s2.0-S1094202522000631-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88851639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"General equilibrium with multiple liquid assets","authors":"Lukas Altermatt , Kohei Iwasaki , Randall Wright","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper studies, analytically and numerically, economies with multiple liquid assets: fiat currency; fixed-supply real assets; and reproducible capital. Cases are considered where assets provide direct liquidity, and indirect liquidity via over-the-counter trade. The results shed new light on how monetary policy affects asset markets and investment. We also provide novel results on endogenous fluctuations (self-fulfilling prophecies), including coexistence of multiple equilibria with very different correlation and volatility patterns. Then we investigate if monetary policy can eliminate multiplicity. A calibration exercise assesses the impact on asset markets and on welfare of different policies, including changing </span>inflation, and eliminating currency altogether.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 267-291"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80954820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Wage dispersion with heterogeneous wage contracts","authors":"Cynthia L. Doniger","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2022.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2022.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I study a labor market in which identical workers search on- and off-the-job and heterogeneous firms employ using either an ex-ante posted wage or flexible wage contracts contingent on outside options. Firm level costs for contingent contracts generate a segmented equilibrium in which less productive firms post wages. The model with heterogeneous contracts can achieve wage dispersion, labor share, employment transitions, and flow value of unemployment that are simultaneously consistent with empirical observations while capturing information frictions and search externalities modeled by ex-ante wage posting. In contrast to well known results regarding pure wage posting models, a good fit to these data can be achieved even when the vast majority of firms post wages. Matching to moments for the U.S. economy in the 2010s implies roughly 58 percent of firms post wages and employ nearly 30 percent of workers under such contracts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 138-160"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138518155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Grey Gordon, John Bailey Jones, Urvi Neelakantan, Kartik Athreya
{"title":"Incarceration, employment, and earnings: Dynamics and differences","authors":"Grey Gordon, John Bailey Jones, Urvi Neelakantan, Kartik Athreya","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.06.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.06.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the dynamics of incarceration, employment, and earnings. Our hidden Markov model distinguishes between first-time and repeat incarceration, between persistent and transitory nonemployment and earnings risks, and accounts for nonresponse bias. We estimate the model via maximum likelihood using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, accounting for the large differences in incarceration rates by race, education level, and gender. First-time incarceration is associated with 33% (50%) lower expected lifetime earnings and 6 (10) fewer years of employment for Black (White) men with a high school degree. Among less-educated men, differences in incarceration and nonemployment can explain around half the Black-White lifetime earnings gap.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 677-697"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79314282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qingqing Cao , Paolo Giordani , Raoul Minetti , Pierluigi Murro
{"title":"Credit markets, relationship lending, and the dynamics of firm entry","authors":"Qingqing Cao , Paolo Giordani , Raoul Minetti , Pierluigi Murro","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the impact of credit relationships on firm entry, and the implications for aggregate investment and output. Exploiting Italian data, we find that relationship-oriented local credit markets feature fewer, larger entrants, and relatively more spinoff entrants. Relationship lending discourages de novo entry when banks' knowledge is incumbent-specific but promotes knowledge transfers to spinoffs. We explain these patterns in a dynamic general equilibrium model where banks accumulate information in credit relationships and can reuse information when financing entrants. Relationship lending raises output, as the larger investments and the credit reallocation from de novos to spinoffs outweigh the entry slowdown.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 343-369"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85433905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}