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Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates 预期与利率中性
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.04.004
John H. Cochrane
{"title":"Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates","authors":"John H. Cochrane","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.04.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2024.04.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Our central banks set interest rates, and do not even pretend to control money supplies. How do interest rates affect inflation? We finally have a complete economic theory of inflation under interest rate targets and unconstrained liquidity. Its long-run properties mirror those of monetary theory: Inflation can be stable and determinate under interest rate targets, including a peg, analogous to a k-percent rule.</p><p>Uncomfortably, stability means that higher interest rates eventually raise inflation, just as higher money growth eventually raises inflation. Sticky prices generate some short-run non-neutrality: Higher nominal interest rates can raise real rates and lower output. A model in which higher nominal interest rates temporarily lower inflation, without a change in fiscal policy, is a harder task. I exhibit one such model, but it paints a more limited picture than standard beliefs. Generically, without a change in fiscal policy, monetary policy can only move inflation from one time to another.</p><p>The last decade has provided a near-ideal set of natural experiments to distinguish the principal theories of inflation. Inflation did not show spirals or indeterminacies at the long zero bound. The large monetary-fiscal expansion of the covid era produced a temporary spurt of inflation. The same money unleashed in quantitative easing had no such effect.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"53 ","pages":"Pages 194-223"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140924625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal unemployment insurance in a THANK model THANK 模型中的最优失业保险
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.04.003
Stéphane Auray , Aurélien Eyquem
{"title":"Optimal unemployment insurance in a THANK model","authors":"Stéphane Auray ,&nbsp;Aurélien Eyquem","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.04.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2024.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We characterize optimal unemployment insurance (UI) in a heterogeneous-agent model with unemployment risk and sticky prices. In the long run, the optimal reform calls for a lower replacement rate that raises vacancies and lowers unemployment. In the short run, the optimal reform <em>raises</em> the replacement rate initially to smooth real wage adjustments along the transition and attenuate short-run welfare losses. Once at its optimal level, the replacement rate should vary counter-cyclically in response to demand shocks. Productivity shocks generate quasi-efficient fluctuations and call for a quasi-constant replacement rate. The aggregate welfare gains from an optimal reform are large, around 1% of equivalent consumption. The aggregate welfare gains from an optimal UI policy over the business cycle are smaller, around 0.2%, and essentially vanish with flexible prices because the aggregate demand stabilization motive is muted.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"53 ","pages":"Pages 173-193"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140818216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bubbly booms and welfare 泡沫繁荣与福利
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.02.001
Feng Dong , Yang Jiao , Haoning Sun
{"title":"Bubbly booms and welfare","authors":"Feng Dong ,&nbsp;Yang Jiao ,&nbsp;Haoning Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We show the competing effects of a housing bubble on the real economy by developing a multi-sector dynamic model with housing production. On the one hand, firms can sell or collateralize their housing, so a housing bubble helps firms obtain credit to finance their investment and expand production. On the other hand, a boom in the housing sector crowds out labor in the non-housing sector. We show that housing booms can reduce social welfare both in the steady state and in the transitional dynamics only when the production externalities in the non-housing sector are sufficiently large. We quantitatively evaluate our model and demonstrate its robustness with model extensions. Policies that target labor, housing transactions and output generate different welfare implications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"53 ","pages":"Pages 71-122"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139926722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are zero-Covid policies optimal? 零科维德政策是否最优？
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.01.002
Andrew B. Abel , Stavros Panageas
{"title":"Are zero-Covid policies optimal?","authors":"Andrew B. Abel ,&nbsp;Stavros Panageas","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.01.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2024.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We analyze the impact of public health policy on the spread of a disease using a version of the SIR model that includes vital statistics, waning immunity, and vaccination. This model is rich enough to accommodate endemic steady states and disease-free steady states. We derive social distancing and vaccination policies that maximize an objective function that penalizes lost output resulting from social distancing, deaths resulting from the disease, and the cost of vaccination. Even though a disease-free steady state is attainable, optimal policy leads to an endemic steady state, albeit with a small number of deaths and negligible loss of output.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"53 ","pages":"Pages 47-70"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202524000024/pdfft?md5=ef11e2c6a9fe28ebec5f4b7f8b334fde&pid=1-s2.0-S1094202524000024-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139737653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Input delays, firm dynamics, and misallocation in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲的投入延迟、企业动态和分配不当
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.04.001
Idossou Marius Adom , Immo Schott
{"title":"Input delays, firm dynamics, and misallocation in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Idossou Marius Adom ,&nbsp;Immo Schott","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.04.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2024.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We quantitatively analyze the macroeconomic consequences of border delays in Sub-Saharan Africa. Delays of imported intermediate inputs lower aggregate output because of factor misallocation and due to an inefficiently low number of firms that uses foreign inputs in production. Our model economy features heterogeneous firms that endogenously differ in the degree to which foreign inputs are used. The model is calibrated to micro-level data from Sub-Saharan Africa. Reducing border delays can increase aggregate output by up to 9.4%. The gains are mainly due to a reallocation of economic activity towards more productive firms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"53 ","pages":"Pages 147-172"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140621021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unmarried births: Accounting and equilibrium analysis, 1960-1995 未婚生育：核算与平衡分析，1960-1995 年
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.12.001
John Kennes , John Knowles
{"title":"Unmarried births: Accounting and equilibrium analysis, 1960-1995","authors":"John Kennes ,&nbsp;John Knowles","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The share of births to unmarried women in the U.S. rose well above 30% in the 1990s, despite unmarried women having greater access to abortion and improved birth control. We show that an equilibrium matching model in which unmarried couples behave co-operatively can explain 97% of the rise in the UMB ratio as the response to a combination of well-documented shocks: rising divorce rates, access to abortion, and improved contraception. Equilibrium interactions among these factors are important; had the marital surplus remained constant, very little change in unmarried births would have occurred. We also find that reforms reversing accessibility of birth control or abortion would on their own do little to reverse these social trends.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"52 ","pages":"Pages 84-109"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139053884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Blocking patents, rent protection and economic growth 阻止专利、租金保护和经济增长
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.11.003
Michael A. Klein , Yibai Yang
{"title":"Blocking patents, rent protection and economic growth","authors":"Michael A. Klein ,&nbsp;Yibai Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.11.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2023.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We develop a Schumpeterian growth model to analyze the interaction between patent policy and firms' internal strategies to capture value from innovations. We consider two dimensions of patent policy: backward protection against imitation and forward protection, also known as blocking patents, against subsequent innovation that builds on a patented technology. Incumbent patent holders endogenously invest resources to protect their monopoly rents by impeding market entry of innovative competitors. We show that patent policy impacts economic growth through its influence on both the ex ante R&amp;D incentives of potential innovators and the post-innovation rent protection incentives of incumbent firms. Most importantly, our analysis formalizes a novel growth-promoting role of forward protection; by guaranteeing previous innovators a share of future innovators' profits, forward protection reduces the incentive to actively obstruct follow-on innovations. We identify conditions under which the selective use of forward protection can stimulate economic growth through this mechanism.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"52 ","pages":"Pages 1-20"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138466485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal taxation in the life cycle with human capital investment 考虑人力资本投资的生命周期最优税收
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.11.004
Been-Lon Chen, Fei-Chi Liang
{"title":"Optimal taxation in the life cycle with human capital investment","authors":"Been-Lon Chen,&nbsp;Fei-Chi Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.11.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2023.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper studies optimal taxes in a lifecycle model with unverifiable </span>human capital investment inseparable from regular consumption. The planner faces asymmetric information regarding agents’ exogenous abilities and endogenous human capital. Agents deviate in two ways: misreporting ability and mis-investing in human capital. We characterize the distortions in a model with i.i.d. shocks and full human capital depreciation. Distortions are characterized by capital wedges that are positive over the life cycle, labor wedges that are negative early and positive later in the life cycle, and net human capital wedges that are positive in the life cycle. These wedges serve as mechanisms to eliminate the distortion to consumption due to inseparability from education expenditure. Calibrate to U.S. data, we show numerically that these results apply in a richer model with persistent shocks and non-full human capital depreciation. Simulation suggests that average capital wedges are positive in all working periods, with progressive capital wedges in contemporary skills, average labor wedges are negative in early and positive in later periods, with hump-shape in skills and nonzero at the top and the bottom of the skill distribution, and net human capital wedges are positive and regressive in skills, indicating that human capital subsidies are in favor of the high skilled.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"52 ","pages":"Pages 21-45"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138472534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changing marital transitions and homeownership among young households 年轻家庭婚姻转变和住房所有权的变化
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.11.002
Minsu Chang
{"title":"Changing marital transitions and homeownership among young households","authors":"Minsu Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper shows that the evolving likelihood of marriage and divorce is an important factor that helps account for the changes in homeownership rates among young single households and married couples from 1970 to the mid 1990s. To investigate potential mechanisms behind these observed changes, I develop and estimate a life-cycle model that incorporates housing decisions and age-dependent shocks associated with marriage and divorce. The findings indicate that the declined likelihood of marriage, along with increased returns on non-housing assets, helps generate the observed rise in homeownership among singles aged 25-44 years. Conversely, the increased likelihood of divorce, in addition to higher house prices<span> and labor market volatility, contributes to the decrease in homeownership among young couples.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"52 ","pages":"Pages 46-63"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138516127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting speculative hyperinflations in monetary models: A rejoinder 重新审视货币模型中的投机性恶性通货膨胀:反驳
IF 2 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2023.11.005
Behzad Diba , Olivier Loisel
{"title":"Revisiting speculative hyperinflations in monetary models: A rejoinder","authors":"Behzad Diba ,&nbsp;Olivier Loisel","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.11.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.11.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this note, we present a formal proof of <span>Obstfeld and Rogoff</span>'s (<span>1983</span>, <span>2021</span><span>) claim that their fractional-currency-backing scheme eliminates the inflationary equilibria in the money-in-utility model. To do so, we fully articulate the optimization problem of consumers who have the option to redeem (part or all of) their cash for a small amount of goods at any date. We also relate the scheme to the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"52 ","pages":"Pages 64-69"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138516128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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