Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

{"title":"Patterns of subordination in the Global South between natural resources, foreign ownership and financial inflows","authors":"Samuele Bibi","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Peru and Kazakhstan have often been presented as success stories—respectively, in Latin America and Central Asia—due to their sustained economic growth since the early 2000s. Despite their distinct histories, geographies, and cultural contexts, both countries exhibit comparable economic features: a heavy reliance on natural resource exports, significant foreign ownership in strategic sectors, and persistent dependence on external financial inflows. These shared characteristics raise concerns about a common pattern of dependency and subordination. While the 2003–2014 commodity supercycle enabled both countries to reduce poverty and transition into upper-middle-income status, this growth was primarily driven by extractive sectors and fuelled by foreign capital. Beneath this apparent success lies a more troubling reality: structural current account deficits, driven by negative primary income balances despite strong trade surpluses. These deficits were increasingly financed through pro-market policies aimed at attracting foreign direct investment, particularly in copper extraction in Peru and oil in Kazakhstan. Although commodity prices have experienced partial revivals, long-term sustainability remains questionable—especially given rising social unrest and mounting geopolitical tensions. This paper explores the financial underpinnings of this subordination by analysing balance of payments dynamics and international investment position statistics for both countries and further contrasting it with Mexico as a third country. In doing so, it critically assesses the viability of development strategies based on natural resource extraction and foreign capital inflows, situating the analysis within broader geopolitical and historical frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 349-368"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Artificial Intelligence (AI), innovation, and economy","authors":"Zhifu Mi ,&nbsp;Mario Pianta","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming the landscape of our economy and society, significantly impacting industries such as automotive, finance, manufacturing, and healthcare. As a revolutionary innovation in computer science, AI is poised to become a central component of modern society in the coming decades, presenting both opportunities and risks to national and global economies. This virtual special issue features a selection of academic articles that examine the impact of AI on the economy and society from three key perspectives: employment, enterprise efficiency, and innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 996-997"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Robots and wages: A meta-analysis","authors":"Anne Jurkat ,&nbsp;Rainer Klump ,&nbsp;Florian Schneider","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the mixed empirical evidence, our meta-study aims to uncover the effect of industrial robots on wages and to identify the drivers of heterogeneity in the primary literature. We collected 55 papers containing 2,468 estimates through systematic literature research. The overall effect of industrial robots on wages is close to zero and statistically insignificant. We observe little evidence of a publication selection bias in general. However, we find evidence of a preferential selection of negative results when authors focus on the USA. Our multivariate meta-regression analysis suggests that the heterogeneity among primary estimations is mainly driven by the selection of countries and control variables, aggregation level, and functional form. Nevertheless, we do not find any economically significant wage effect for specific country groups, aggregation levels, or subsamples of workers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 541-567"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade liberalization and digital servitization: A study based on microdata from chinese manufacturing firms","authors":"Jie Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the era of global digital transformation, trade openness is vital for advancing digital servitization. This study employs microdata from China to investigate the effects of trade liberalization on the digital servitization of manufacturing firms. The findings are as follows: (1) The baseline results show that reducing trade barriers can enhance firms' digital servitization level. (2) Mechanism analysis reveals that trade liberalization promotes digital servitization by increasing digital service sales and decreasing other business sales, fostering product diversification and improving profits without leading to the \"service paradox\". (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that capital-intensive and technology-intensive firms are more likely to engage in digital servitization as a result of trade liberalization. (4) Further analysis shows that the combination of border and behind-the-border measures can further facilitate digital servitization. This study offers theoretical support for manufacturing firms aiming to implement digital servitization strategies in an open environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 654-675"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145332506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon dioxide emissions peaks depend on changes in economic scale and industrial structure","authors":"Zhiyuan Duan ,&nbsp;Haiyan Duan ,&nbsp;Siyan Chen ,&nbsp;Zhenhui Gao ,&nbsp;Lixiao Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reaching carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions peak is a prerequisite for achieving carbon neutrality. Most developing countries are puzzled about how to achieve CO₂ emissions peak, whereas other countries are uncertain whether the recent inflection points in CO₂ emissions represent genuine peaks. In this study, we identified the decisive factors and numerical ranges for peaking CO₂ emissions from a socioeconomic development perspective, and we further established the criteria for distinguishing between genuine and spurious CO₂ emissions peaks. By employing principal component analysis and the panel threshold regression model, in this study, we investigated the nonlinear dynamic impacts of socioeconomic factors on CO₂ emissions in 16 developed countries with peak emissions during the period from 1960 to 2016. The results demonstrate that a nonlinear threshold effect is exerted by the economic subsystem, characterized by economic scale and industrial structure, on CO₂ emissions, thus playing a predominant role in the peaking process of CO₂ emissions by shaping both the total amount and the timing of reaching the peak, and emerging as the key factor in distinguishing between genuine and spurious CO₂ emissions peaks. The identified criteria for this distinction are as follows: a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of between 1.20 % and 4.94 %, a GDP per capita ranging from USD 18,519 to USD 44,597, and the ratio of tertiary industry output value to the total GDP falling within 51–65 %. All three key indicators must be simultaneously satisfied to fulfill the criteria to achieve a genuine CO₂ emissions peak. The findings of this study not only facilitate the scientific and precise identification of the CO₂ emissions peak but also provide invaluable references for countries or regions that have not yet reached their peaks in formulating and refining economic development strategies to achieve CO₂ emissions peak.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 94-107"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144071547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global carbon emission implications of China’s demographic ageing","authors":"Yafei Wang ,&nbsp;Siyang Wu ,&nbsp;Lixiao Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s rapidly ageing exerts increasingly complex impacts on global carbon emissions. While most studies primarily examined domestic carbon of elderly, its global implications remain understudies. This study develops a novel provincial-global multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model, integrating Chinese Household Expenditure Surveys, to quantify carbon footprints of older adults. The results reveal that although the elderly show relatively lower per capita emissions (2.63 t per capita in 2020), their rising demographic share (from 8.8% in 2005 to 12.5% in 2020) and annual growth rate of emissions (11.77%) represent ageing as a significant driver of global emissions. Key sources, including food and residence, while emissions embodied in international trade, particularly from Brazil, Australia, and Russia, are increasingly prominent. At the sectoral level, power generation and agriculture dominate both domestic and imported emissions. The findings highlight the urgency of incorporating demographic ageing into carbon mitigation strategies and addressing foreign emissions embedded in elderly consumption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 767-781"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145424430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The changing drivers of inflation – the case of food: Macroeconomics, speculation, climate change and war","authors":"Bernardina Algieri ,&nbsp;Lukas Kornher ,&nbsp;Joachim von Braun","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The inflation surge in recent years has produced profound social, economic, and political consequences. Food price changes, being part of inflation, affect low-income segments particularly strongly. This is important to consider because macro-economic and central banks’ attention is mainly on core inflation, which excludes food. What makes this period so unusual is the breadth of price pressures that involve both developing and rich countries, meaning that inflation has been getting more synchronized across borders. This study examines the driving factors behind global food price hikes and their rates of change. Our analysis reveals that a complex mix of causes has led to the soaring food prices in 2021–2022. The spread of COVID-19 produced disruptions in the world’s supply chains, pushing the cost of producing and transporting food upward. The increase in fertilizer and energy prices has further exacerbated production costs for agricultural products. Adverse climatic phenomena (La Niña), generating droughts in parts of Africa, Asia, and the Americas, caused damage to harvests and fueled inflation. The war in Ukraine and the trade blockade of grain exports made things worse. Additional culprits were speculative activities in financial markets that were already underway before the Russia-Ukraine war. Soaring inflation increases inequality and makes vulnerable countries hungrier and poorer. At the same time, since global factors contribute to food price movements, implying that a crucial component of price inflation is exogenous to individual countries, the effectiveness of national monetary and fiscal policies could be limited. Instead, enhanced cooperation among nations with coordinated policy responses could be important to avoid the exacerbation of prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 782-800"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145424480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exporting violence? Migration and violent conflict in Africa","authors":"Nixon S. Chekenya ,&nbsp;Canicio Dzingirai","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change and demographic pressures are reshaping Africa’s security landscape. Extreme weather shocks disrupt livelihoods and often induce people to move, while many states face persistent violent conflict. Migration represents a potential connection between these two challenges, yet isolating its causal effect on conflict remains difficult due to endogeneity and measurement concerns. In this paper, we examine whether net international migration increases the incidence of violent conflict in Africa and assess if there are heterogenous effects across regions within Africa. We compile panel data for 54 African countries from 1997 to 2024, measuring net migration as the difference between inflows and outflows, and conflict incidence using geocoded event data. To address endogeneity, we instrument migration with historical rainfall variability (from 1901 to 1950), which shaped long-run settlement and mobility patterns but predates modern political institutions. Using a control function IV Poisson model suitable for equi-dispersed count data, we find that migration significantly increases conflict incidence, with effects concentrated in countries and regions in Africa with weak governance and economic stress. These results highlight the need for anticipatory governance strategies which address both mobility and fragility in contexts vulnerable to climate change and demographic pressure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 868-879"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145473616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“Increasing returns through circularity: a theory of production residuals for sustainable circular transitions”","authors":"Giovanni Tagliani","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The concepts of environmental sustainability and economic development, the former founded on the assumption of a planet with finite resources while the latter privileges growth driven by increasing returns, find their most difficult junction in the current era of climate change. Starting from the sustainable transition literature and structural dynamics models, this paper outlines a theory of production residuals showing how residuals are generated, their typology, and how to innovatively use them. The paper analyses the economic implications of residuals in the context of 'one way' and circular representations of production and contributes to the study of sustainable circular transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 913-925"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Natural resource curse: Mediating effects of fiscal policy","authors":"Linus Nyiwul ,&nbsp;Zhining Hu ,&nbsp;Niraj P. Koirala","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The ‘resource curse’ literature has predominantly focused on identifying causes and channels of the ‘curse’, while literature on how to mitigate it remains largely at the theoretical or analytical level. In this paper, we examine the role of fiscal policy in mitigating the negative effect of natural resource dependence on economic growth. Using a sample of 150 countries for the period of 1990-2021, we apply a panel instrumental variable (IV) estimation to identify the nature of the relationship between economic growth, resource dependence, and fiscal policy. We then apply a panel structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to examine the dynamics of this relationship. Our results yield a nuanced picture: while expansionary fiscal policy can mitigate the negative effect of resource dependence, it also entails adverse consequences, particularly a reduction in economic growth, which partially offset its benefits. These findings are robust across five different measurements of natural resource dependence and are further corroborated by the panel SVAR analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 568-589"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}