Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

{"title":"The impact of China’s carbon emissions trading system on energy justice","authors":"Yue-Jun Zhang ,&nbsp;Hao-Sen Cheng ,&nbsp;Xia Wang ,&nbsp;Jing-Yue Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy justice has become one of the global concerns, and carbon emissions trading system (CETS) is likely to have an impact on energy transition and energy justice therein. Therefore, this paper proposes the indicators for energy justice, and then develops a spatial difference-in-differences model to reveal the impact mechanism of China’s CETS on energy justice. The results indicate that China’s CETS does not cause injustice in cost distribution but in benefit distribution in and only in pilot regions. Specifically, China’s CETS has significantly reduced CO₂ emissions by an average of 95.0 million tons in the pilot regions but significantly exacerbated the urban-rural electricity consumption inequality in pilot regions from 2011 to 2021. Meanwhile, China’s CETS has no significant impact on energy justice in neighboring regions of pilots. Further analysis shows that promoting technological innovation and government intervention can ease this distributional injustice of benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 483-492"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143931892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon dioxide emissions peaks depend on changes in economic scale and industrial structure","authors":"Zhiyuan Duan ,&nbsp;Haiyan Duan ,&nbsp;Siyan Chen ,&nbsp;Zhenhui Gao ,&nbsp;Lixiao Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reaching carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions peak is a prerequisite for achieving carbon neutrality. Most developing countries are puzzled about how to achieve CO₂ emissions peak, whereas other countries are uncertain whether the recent inflection points in CO₂ emissions represent genuine peaks. In this study, we identified the decisive factors and numerical ranges for peaking CO₂ emissions from a socioeconomic development perspective, and we further established the criteria for distinguishing between genuine and spurious CO₂ emissions peaks. By employing principal component analysis and the panel threshold regression model, in this study, we investigated the nonlinear dynamic impacts of socioeconomic factors on CO₂ emissions in 16 developed countries with peak emissions during the period from 1960 to 2016. The results demonstrate that a nonlinear threshold effect is exerted by the economic subsystem, characterized by economic scale and industrial structure, on CO₂ emissions, thus playing a predominant role in the peaking process of CO₂ emissions by shaping both the total amount and the timing of reaching the peak, and emerging as the key factor in distinguishing between genuine and spurious CO₂ emissions peaks. The identified criteria for this distinction are as follows: a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of between 1.20 % and 4.94 %, a GDP per capita ranging from USD 18,519 to USD 44,597, and the ratio of tertiary industry output value to the total GDP falling within 51–65 %. All three key indicators must be simultaneously satisfied to fulfill the criteria to achieve a genuine CO₂ emissions peak. The findings of this study not only facilitate the scientific and precise identification of the CO₂ emissions peak but also provide invaluable references for countries or regions that have not yet reached their peaks in formulating and refining economic development strategies to achieve CO₂ emissions peak.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 94-107"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144071547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is environmental regulation an incentive or an obstacle to green innovation?","authors":"Chunyang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To investigate the validity of the Market Failure Theory and Porter Hypothesis, this paper utilizes a hand-collected novel dataset from manufacturing firms form 2010 to 2020, presenting empirical evidence on how different types of environmental regulations influence green innovation and assessing the moderating effect of government subsidies. The conclusions demonstrate that mandatory environmental regulation reduces green innovation, whereas voluntary environmental regulation stimulates it. Government subsidies mitigate the negative influences of mandatory environmental regulation on green innovation but cannot have an impact on the positive effect of voluntary environmental regulation on green innovation. Additionally, mandatory environmental regulation affects green innovation in the long term, whereas voluntary environmental regulation yields only transient impacts confined to the immediate subsequent year. Finally, the influences of environmental regulations are heterogeneous, varying according to firm age, industry, and region. The conclusions support the Porter Hypothesis and Market Failure Theory, providing policy implications for policymakers, firm managers, and investors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 52-68"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143931779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of household size and structure on carbon emissions in China","authors":"Kaitong Yang ,&nbsp;Jun Wu ,&nbsp;Ling Li ,&nbsp;Zhifu Mi ,&nbsp;Junai Yang ,&nbsp;Ling Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s household dynamics are shifting towards smaller household sizes and lower fertility rates, trends that significantly influence consumption patterns and carbon emissions. This study investigates the discrepancies in household consumption and carbon footprint among different household sizes and structures in China by utilizing an environmentally extended multiregional input‒output model and a China’s household consumption survey. The results reveal that the per capita household carbon footprint decreases with increasing household size. However, even within households of the same size, the per capita carbon footprint varies among different household structures, with households having fewer children typically generating lower emissions. We also found regional and urban‒rural disparities in the household carbon footprint, and these gaps narrow as household size expands. This paper underscores the importance of considering household size and structure when formulating policies aimed at mitigating climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 9-19"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143931795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Structural change in Morocco: Rethinking industrial policies” [Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 72 (2025), 412-426]","authors":"Wissal Sahel,&nbsp;Idriss El Abbassi","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Page 1045"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144841043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changing quantile distributive growth cycles","authors":"Jose Barrales-Ruiz ,&nbsp;Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the changes in the dynamic interactions between short-run economic growth (EG) and functional income distribution (ID) before and during contemporary neoliberal capitalism in the USA. We estimate structural quantile vector autoregression models, thus studying the dynamic changes that have occurred in all parts of the conditional probability distributions of both EG and ID. First, we find evidence of important reductions in the profit-led effect across the whole probability distribution of EG during neoliberalism. Second, we find that profit squeeze dynamics have decreased at most parts of the probability distribution of ID but have increased its effect in the left tail of the latter, thus becoming more heterogeneous across the probability distribution of ID. Although the underlying transmission mechanisms have remained unaltered across the two periods, our results highlight that the interactions between EG and ID have become a more complex phenomenon to study since the mid-1980s.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 441-456"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does Saudi Arabia's International Competitiveness Improve Due to Sanctions Imposed on Competitors? The case of two wars","authors":"Noha Razek ,&nbsp;Valentina Galvani ,&nbsp;Brian McQuinn ,&nbsp;Surya Rajan","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the early 1990s, Saudi Arabia ascended to the influential role of the lone swing producer in the global oil market by filling the output gap left by competitors displaced by sanctions and war (Iraq) or internal collapse (Soviet Union). Our question is whether the Kingdom similarly benefitted from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War and the Western sanctions on Russian petroleum exports. Building on Razek and McQuinn (2021), we rely on the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) to gauge Saudi Arabia's international competitiveness. We apply vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques to a 1986–2022 sample and compare the early 1990s and 2022 using historical decomposition. We allow for various shock transmission channels and employ the Brent-Urals spread and Russia's geopolitical risk index (GPR) to capture geopolitical risk affecting Russian petroleum exports. Our findings show that Saudi international competitiveness increased in the 1990s but decreased in 2022. In fact, the 2022 crisis – unlike the early 1990s– resulted in a new regime in which extreme oil backwardation regimes fail to reward Saudi competitiveness, with oil exports ceasing to be the primary determinant of Saudi Arabia's competitive advantage. We discuss the effects of the Kingdom's investment diversification strategy and draw some conclusions about global energy price volatility and U.S. global dominance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 457-482"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143928402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drivers of income inequality in OECD countries: Testing the Milanovic's TOP hypothesis","authors":"Danijela Lazović Vuković ,&nbsp;Jože P. Damijan","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the drivers of rising income inequality in OECD countries between 1980 and 2018. By testing Milanovic’s TOP hypothesis in our sample, we measure the extent to which these distributional outcomes have been driven by either technological progress or globalization and the extent to which they have been influenced or mitigated by policy choices. The results of our empirical analysis provide the basis for confirming the TOP hypothesis. We find evidence that a 10 percent increase in trade openness, financial globalization, and technological progress is on average associated with a 0.4 percent, 0.3 percent, and 0.9 percent change in market inequality, respectively. At the same time, policies such as public expenditure on education, employment protection legislation and direct income taxes promote a more equal distribution. Our most notable finding, however, is that policies not only have a direct equalizing effect, but also mitigate the effects of globalization and technological progress on income inequality. The results of our study suggest that there are reasonable alternatives to anti-globalization strategies and that redistributive and labor market policies can be tailored to control inequality in the era of globalization and technology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 416-440"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143881834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Balance of payments and currency policy in China’s development","authors":"Emilio Carnevali ,&nbsp;Marco Veronese Passarella ,&nbsp;Dongna Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper offers a summary and evaluation of China’s development strategy over the past four decades, focusing on its transition to an open economy. On the one hand, it underscores the role played by international trade and the shift from central planning to market-driven resource allocation. On the other hand, it highlights the role of active government intervention, particularly in managing the balance of payments and contributing to China’s success. The paper also addresses the controversies surrounding China’s exchange rate policy, including accusations of “currency manipulation”. The model presented suggests that the scope for a quick nominal revaluation of the Renminbi with respect to the US dollar during the initial stages of the reform era was limited. This finding contributes to a more informed and evidence-based discussion on international macroeconomic imbalances.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 405-415"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143864424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The economic and geostrategic role of LNG in EU energy transition","authors":"Sara Casagrande,&nbsp;Bruno Dallago","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since 2010s, the EU promotes decarbonization and energy security as strategic goals. However, a fundamental impetus came with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The EU promoted a drastic reduction of Russian gas import, massive import of liquefied natural gas (LNG), investments in the LNG value chain, reduction of energy demand, and green transition. This article analyses the rise of the LNG market, its contradictions and challenges. According to results, LNG rise has been determined more by geopolitical factors than economic ones, that can be traced back to the impact of the shale gas revolution on the EU-Russia relations. Indeed, LNG convenience compared to pipeline gas is threatened by market volatility and various costs peculiar to LNG. Currently, the massive import of LNG has not solved the problem of energy dependence and cost, does not fully compensate for the gas supply gap and threatens the credibility of the climate agenda.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 387-404"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}