Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献_第10页

Is agricultural productivity a prerequisite for structural transformation? Evidence on the role of trade openness 农业生产力是结构转型的先决条件吗？关于贸易开放作用的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.016

Arnaud Daymard

{"title":"Is agricultural productivity a prerequisite for structural transformation? Evidence on the role of trade openness","authors":"Arnaud Daymard","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A high agricultural productivity is usually seen as a precondition for the development of industry and services, but this idea relies crucially on the assumption of an economy closed to international trade. In a globalized world, can a country industrialize or tertiarize without prior agricultural development? There is still little practical knowledge of this possibility. In this paper, I assess the relevance of closed- versus open-economy models of structural transformation using data on the sectoral productivity levels of developed and developing countries over the 1950–2018 period. The empirical findings suggest that most countries behave approximately as closed economies. Therefore, except for small city-state countries, the emphasis on agricultural development to achieve industrialization and tertiarization is justified. Nonetheless, the results reveal that in Latin America and Africa, a high agricultural productivity causes tertiarization with little development of the industrial sector. This “premature deindustrialization” hints at the influence of specific barriers to the creation of industrial jobs: an adverse business environment for large manufacturing firms and a downward trend in the world prices of manufacturing goods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 828-848"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145424483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The acceleration and attenuation: Internet infrastructure and employment adjustment patterns 加速与衰减：互联网基础设施与就业调整模式

IF 5.5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.003

Li Yu , Siyuan Zhao , Chen Liu , Fenglan Chen

{"title":"The acceleration and attenuation: Internet infrastructure and employment adjustment patterns","authors":"Li Yu , Siyuan Zhao , Chen Liu , Fenglan Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How does the arrival of broadband Internet affect firms’ employment adjustment patterns? Understanding this relationship is crucial, particularly given the challenges of employment recovery following major economic shocks such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine this question using China’s broadband infrastructure expansion in the early 2000s. Using establishment-level data, we find that Internet access increases employment adjustment rates, reduces the probability of inaction, and increases the likelihood of smooth adjustments. Internet access also alters the distribution of adjustment types: firms transition more quickly from spike to smooth adjustments, while maintaining smooth adjustment periods longer before reverting to inaction. By alleviating search frictions, lowering fixed hiring costs, and reducing firm-level uncertainty, these shifts in adjustment patterns improve firms’ responsiveness to economic shocks: cities with better Internet infrastructure show stronger employment responses to positive demand shocks from WTO and faster recovery from the 2008-09 crisis. The changes in distribution of adjustment types not only promote employment growth but also generate significant efficiency gains: micro-level improvements explain 44 percent of the reduction in firm-level labor misallocation, while cities with better digital infrastructure exhibit lower dispersion in labor’s marginal product, though the magnitude depends on local labor mobility institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 726-743"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145424568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A model of maximum employment growth with a one-third profit share 一个以三分之一的利润份额实现最大就业增长的模型

IF 5.5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.013

Alain Villemeur

{"title":"A model of maximum employment growth with a one-third profit share","authors":"Alain Villemeur","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The economies of the European Union and the United States have been predominantly wage-driven in recent decades, according to most empirical studies on the <span><span>Bhaduri–Marglin model (1990)</span></span>. Nevertheless, since the 1980s, European governments have operated under the neoclassical belief that full employment can be achieved by reducing labour costs and increasing the profit share of income, a strategy that has proven effective, though the reasons remain a mystery (Storm and Naastepad, 2017). How could this happen? To explain these developments, the proposed new model of growth and distribution integrates the principles of chain reaction, creative destruction, effective demand, and the significance of income distribution, as outlined by Kaldor, Schumpeter, Keynes, and Ricardo, respectively. It has been theoretically demonstrated that employment growth reaches its maximum when profit share accounts for one-third of income. This relationship is illustrated by the evolution of the U.S. economy throughout the 20th century and by 17 advanced economies since 1961, the earliest year for which precise data is available. Thus, wages drive output and productivity growth, while employment growth is driven by the profit share when it is below the one-third threshold, and by the wage share when it exceeds that point.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 403-422"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Is environmental regulation an incentive or an obstacle to green innovation? 环境法规对绿色创新是激励还是阻碍？

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.003

Chunyang Wang

{"title":"Is environmental regulation an incentive or an obstacle to green innovation?","authors":"Chunyang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To investigate the validity of the Market Failure Theory and Porter Hypothesis, this paper utilizes a hand-collected novel dataset from manufacturing firms form 2010 to 2020, presenting empirical evidence on how different types of environmental regulations influence green innovation and assessing the moderating effect of government subsidies. The conclusions demonstrate that mandatory environmental regulation reduces green innovation, whereas voluntary environmental regulation stimulates it. Government subsidies mitigate the negative influences of mandatory environmental regulation on green innovation but cannot have an impact on the positive effect of voluntary environmental regulation on green innovation. Additionally, mandatory environmental regulation affects green innovation in the long term, whereas voluntary environmental regulation yields only transient impacts confined to the immediate subsequent year. Finally, the influences of environmental regulations are heterogeneous, varying according to firm age, industry, and region. The conclusions support the Porter Hypothesis and Market Failure Theory, providing policy implications for policymakers, firm managers, and investors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 52-68"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143931779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

International cost-push inflation and monetary policy in Brazil 巴西的国际成本推动型通货膨胀和货币政策

IF 5.5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.003

Guilherme Spinato Morlin

引用次数: 0

Can labor policies reduce precarization? The case of youth employment in Italy 劳工政策能减少不稳定现象吗？以意大利青年就业为例

IF 5.5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.003

Nicola Caravaggio

{"title":"Can labor policies reduce precarization? The case of youth employment in Italy","authors":"Nicola Caravaggio","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The so-called Dignity Decree (DD), which came into force in summer 2018, represents one of the most significant legislative interventions in employment protection within the Italian labor market. This study examines the role of DD in shaping the career paths of young workers (aged 15-29) who recently entered the labor market. Specifically, we focus on their probability of being employed one year or more after the reform’s implementation and their likelihood of securing an open-ended contract within the same time frames. The analysis relies on an exclusive database of Compulsory Communications data and employs a Propensity Score Matching estimation. The findings suggest a modest improvement in the persistence of the labor market, with the probability of remaining employed increasing by approximately 1.5% one year after DD implementation. The result is more evident for open-ended contracts, with the probability of being employed in a permanent position rising to almost 4.5% after one year and half. Additionally, the DD is associated with a slight reduction in the number of contract activations and an increase in working days, reaching an additional 11 days 1.5 years after the reform’s introduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 163-187"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144722128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Different specifications and implications of the supermultiplier model 超乘数模型的不同规格和含义

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.012

José A. Pérez-Montiel , Andreu Sansó

{"title":"Different specifications and implications of the supermultiplier model","authors":"José A. Pérez-Montiel , Andreu Sansó","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze, compare, and discuss two distinct econometric specifications of the supermultiplier model. Specifically, we contrast the empirical strategy that examines the relationship between output (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>y</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) and autonomous demand (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>z</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) with the specification that focuses on the relationship between induced demand (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>x</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) and <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>z</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>. Although both specifications are theoretically valid from a macroeconomic standpoint, we use econometric theory to show that they may lead to different conclusions regarding cointegration and causality. This paper challenges the findings of existing empirical research based on the <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>y</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>–<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>z</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> specification, which should be interpreted with caution, particularly those suggesting unidirectional Granger causality from autonomous demand to output.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 963-969"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144572460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global value chains, structural change and growth dynamics in South Korea and Spain: Costs and benefits of globalization 韩国和西班牙的全球价值链、结构变化和增长动态：全球化的成本和收益

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.017

Keun Lee , Isabel Álvarez , Ángel Valarezo

{"title":"Global value chains, structural change and growth dynamics in South Korea and Spain: Costs and benefits of globalization","authors":"Keun Lee , Isabel Álvarez , Ángel Valarezo","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper revisits structural change, economic complexity, and Global Value Chain (GVC) participation in long-term growth dynamics of South Korea and Spain. The findings reveal both similarities and differences in their growth patterns, despite comparable economic size and income levels. First, we confirm the importance of capital formation, along with structural change at different intensities across the two countries. Second, we confirm the heterogeneous effects of economic complexity across two countries, which is because Korea exports high-tech and high complexity goods whereas Spain exports a mix of complex manufactured goods and low-complexity agricultural products. Third, and most importantly, we find a negative effect of forward GVC participation on economic growth, particularly in certain industries, highlighting the perils of globalization. Lastly, while some positive effects of backward GVC participation are observed in specific Spanish subsectors, negative effects on growth and structural change persist in Korea, underscoring the variability in growth outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 517-537"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Employee compensation in European regions: A spatial analysis of short- and long-term effects 欧洲地区雇员薪酬：短期和长期影响的空间分析

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.03.019

Antonio Garofalo , Emma Bruno , Maria D'Avino , Aniello Ferraro , Gennaro Punzo

{"title":"Employee compensation in European regions: A spatial analysis of short- and long-term effects","authors":"Antonio Garofalo , Emma Bruno , Maria D'Avino , Aniello Ferraro , Gennaro Punzo","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.03.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.03.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Some European countries have recently experienced stagnation or decline in employee compensation, highlighting the need to investigate its causes to develop policies that support economic well-being and competitiveness.</div><div>Using a dynamic spatial Durbin panel model and data from 242 European regions from 2008 to 2020, this study explores key socio-demographic, economic, and institutional factors affecting employee compensation. The estimation approach accounts for both spatial and temporal dimensions, allowing the assessment of short- and long-term direct and spillover effects associated with each predictor.</div><div>The results show significant spatial dependencies, with GDP per capita positively influencing compensation in the short-run, while education negatively due to skill mismatches. Institutional quality contributes to higher compensation levels both in the short- and long-term, highlighting effective governance's role. Statutory minimum wages have negative direct effects in the short-run and positive spillovers in the long-run.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 303-314"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143785700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fintech and absolute intergenerational mobility: Evidence from digital finance development in China 金融科技与绝对代际流动性：来自中国数字金融发展的证据

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.004

Chenxuan Chen

引用次数: 0