The formation mechanism of China's energy transition pattern based on the analysis of the “dynamics-efficiency-quality” ternary system

Abstract

This paper introduces the "E-DEQ" theoretical framework for analyzing energy transition patterns and establishes an evaluation system to assess the dynamics, efficiency, and quality of energy transitions. It examines the evolving trends within this "dynamics-efficiency-quality" ternary system across various provinces in China from 2000 to 2019. We employ the coordinated development model and the panel vector error correction model to investigate the coordinated evolution of energy transition patterns. The findings reveal that energy transition system exhibits a phased and fluctuating growth trend characterized by significant regional disparities; the eastern region displays the strongest performance, while the central and western regions lag. The coordinated development of this system is reinforced by a consistently rising development effect, with dynamics serving as the primary driving factor, reflecting a trend of "virtuous resonance and highly coordinated." This system reveals short-term interactive enhancement, a notable long-term equilibrium trend, and a distinct circular cumulative causal effect. This paper methodically constructs the "E-DEQ" theoretical framework for energy transition from the evolutionary economics perspective, with China serving as a case study. The framework is designed to offer decision-making support for developing economies aiming to regulate dynamics, enhance efficiency, and improve the quality of their energy transition.