KyklosPub Date : 2025-04-16DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12460
Christopher Lalley
{"title":"Time to Graduate Level Employment for New Graduates in the United Kingdom","authors":"Christopher Lalley","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12460","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12460","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper estimates the time to graduate employment of new graduates from universities in the United Kingdom. Using data from the UK Graduate Outcomes Survey, survival functions are estimated to identify differences in time to graduate employment among different groups of graduates, stratified by institution. Differences in survival functions are confirmed across the different categories of university in the United Kingdom, with Russell Group universities holding a greater probability of employment at each time interval. A Cox Proportional Hazard model is estimated to identify the determinants of the differences in the time to graduate employment, with constant effects associated with secondary school performance, parental degree status, private school status and ethnicity. The remaining effects were shown to be time varying, including institution, degree classification and degree subject, with Russell Group graduates, graduates with high degree classifications and graduates of STEM displaying a persistent advantage in the early career labour market.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"1091-1104"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.12460","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2025-04-15DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12459
Alban Asllani, Eleftherios Goulas, Socrates Karidis
{"title":"Inside the ‘Black Box’ of the Nexus Between Economic Conditions and Crime: Can the Relationship Be Mitigated?","authors":"Alban Asllani, Eleftherios Goulas, Socrates Karidis","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12459","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines how the impact of economic conditions on criminal activity is mitigated by the presence of labour market policies and that of a sizeable shadow economy. The analysis reveals a positive relationship between economic downturns and property crime, supporting the well-documented idea that economic hardships intensify criminal activity. Most importantly, however, we find that the relationship is mitigated when active labour market policies, as well as labour training, are employed by enhancing skills and productivity, thus lowering incentives for criminal behaviour. Passive policies, on the other hand, also weaken the link, primarily through the income effect, with their effectiveness being increased in the presence of high levels of the shadow economy. High levels of both kinds of labour market policies and of the shadow economy significantly reduce crime, though additional investment in those shows different returns. These findings suggest that a comprehensive approach is required when effective crime reduction is considered during economic downturns, accounting for both formal and informal sector dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"1070-1090"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.12459","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2025-04-11DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12450
Christine Strong
{"title":"Forging Monetary Hawks: Early-Life Inflation Experiences and Government Debt in Africa","authors":"Christine Strong","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12450","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12450","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study uses a novel dataset to examine the impact of early-life inflation experiences on government debt across 30 African nations from 1980 to 2022. We propose that central bankers who encountered inflation crises during their formative years are more likely to develop preferences for hawkish monetary policies. However, for these preferences to influence fiscal outcomes, central bankers must operate within an environment of institutional independence. Indeed, our analysis reveals that past exposures to inflation crises, on their own, have no statistically significant impact on government debt. However, when central bank independence is accounted for, a significant negative relationship emerges, indicating that institutional autonomy enables central bankers to translate their early-life experiences into policies that curb debt accumulation. This relationship holds even after controlling for central bankers' expertise, highlighting the critical interplay between personal history and institutional design in shaping government debt dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"1021-1036"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.12450","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2025-04-11DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12457
Sergio Beraldo, Enrico Colombatto
{"title":"Beyond the Tax-the-Rich Narrative: How Italians Consider Taxing Wealth","authors":"Sergio Beraldo, Enrico Colombatto","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12457","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines public attitudes toward wealth taxation in Italy, drawing on a survey of 2400 individuals conducted in 2021. Moving beyond the conventional “tax-the-rich” narrative, it investigates people's views on wealth taxes as a potential alternative to income and consumption taxation. The analysis exploresthe role of self-interest, personal beliefs, and political orientation, and shows that support for wealth taxes does not necessarily stem from redistributive motives, but may also express a preference for a less intrusive tax system with moderate progressivity, an approach aligned with classical–liberal principles. Respondents prefer wealth taxes to consumption taxes. Notably, many support a proposal to replace all existing taxes with a single wealth tax. However, concerns emerge regarding potential increases in the overall tax burden and the inclusion of primary residences in the tax base. Contrary to expectations, political orientation plays a limited role in shaping attitudes, although an interaction effect between political views and economic status is observed. The earmarking of tax revenues does not significantly influence preferences.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"1037-1052"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.12457","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2025-04-11DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12458
Khusrav Gaibulloev, James A. Piazza, Todd Sandler
{"title":"Are Resident Terrorist Groups Productive in Weak States?","authors":"Khusrav Gaibulloev, James A. Piazza, Todd Sandler","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12458","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The current study shows that terrorist groups residing in weak states generate more domestic, transnational, and total terrorist attacks than their counterparts based in relatively stable countries during 1970–2016. At the group-year unit of analysis, the superior attack productivity of weak state terrorist groups is robust to alternative empirical specifications that include four different weak state metrics—territorial control losses, tax revenue challenge, bureaucratic weakness, and violence vulnerabilities. In addition, we find that terrorist groups in weak states are much more inclined to engage in kidnappings, which exploit state weakness, compared to their counterparts elsewhere. To bolster causal inference, we apply an instrument to account for potential endogeneity of state weakness when weakness concerns a lack of territorial control. The analysis herein indicates that weak states' terrorist groups pose a formidable risk not only at home but also abroad. Our comprehensive use of alternative measures of state weakness helps to settle the debate on how state weakness influences terrorism. By focusing on resident terrorist groups, our study links state weakness to the strategic behavior of such groups rather than merely illustrating how the state's wider environmental considerations affect terrorism.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"1053-1069"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2025-04-09DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12453
Michele Gubello
{"title":"Inherited Social Trust and Depression Among Second-Generation Immigrants","authors":"Michele Gubello","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12453","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper estimates the causal effect of culturally inherited social trust on the severity of depressive symptoms among second-generation immigrants. To isolate the impact of inherited social trust on depressive symptoms, I regress the depressive symptoms of second-generation immigrants against the average social trust in their parents' country of origin. Using a sample of second-generation immigrants residing in 22 European countries, I show that a one-standard-deviation increase in inherited social trust reduces the severity of depressive symptoms, as measured by the CES-D8 depression scale, by 6.5% of a standard deviation. Overall, this paper highlights a causal relationship between higher inherited social trust and less severe depressive symptoms among second-generation immigrants.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"1007-1020"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.12453","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2025-03-27DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12455
Raffaella Barone, Donato Masciandaro
{"title":"Green Grease: Environmental Crime, Corruption and Money Laundering","authors":"Raffaella Barone, Donato Masciandaro","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12455","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We offer a theoretical and empirical analysis that shows how corruption can be a ‘green grease’ that facilitates both environmental crimes and money laundering. Corruption can be an accelerator that amplifies the multiplier effect on illegal revenues. We model these relationships using a logistic function, which we calibrate to estimate overall environmental crime revenues using Italian regional data from 1995 to 2020.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"991-1006"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.12455","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2025-03-26DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12452
Tai-kuang Ho
{"title":"The Dawes Plan: A Centennial Retrospective and Re-Evaluation","authors":"Tai-kuang Ho","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12452","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12452","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The Dawes Plan was implemented in 1924 to address Germany's World War I reparations. Although it ended Germany's monetary chaos and hyperinflation in 1923, bringing short-term peace and prosperity to the nation, the foreign debt Germany accumulated during the plan worsened the economic impact of the Great Depression during the early 1930s. This article reviews the origins and contents of the Dawes Plan by surveying contemporaries' views and expectations when the plan started as well as Germany's actual economic developments during the plan. We also reflect upon the debates in the Dawes Plan literature. The literature has evolved from focusing on internal distribution conflict to international distributional conflict, connecting the fragile boom of the 1920s to the woes of the early 1930s. Finally, we compare the plan with two other war reparation plans to see what features a workable one should have. A workable war reparation plan must be effectively enforced and should address the transfer problem. The Dawes Plan fell short in both areas, suffering from a serious incentive-compatible problem that sealed its failure from the start.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"977-990"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2025-03-25DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12448
Michael Neugart, Izaskun Zuazu
{"title":"Women's Electoral Success and Female Voter Turnout: Evidence From Individual Voting Data for Germany","authors":"Michael Neugart, Izaskun Zuazu","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12448","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper brings individual-level evidence to the hypothesis that women holding political offices, that is, descriptive representation, affects the participation of women in politics. Specifically, using a regression discontinuity design, we analyze the role of close victories of directly elected female candidates in mixed-gender races at the federal elections in Germany in 2013 on individuals' decisions to turn out at the federal elections in Germany in 2017. We account for mediating channels such as changes in the pool of candidates, policy outcomes, policy interest, and knowledge that may all also affect voter turnout. The results indicate no effect of descriptive representation on female turnout in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"960-976"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.12448","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2025-03-24DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12454
Sunil Kanwar
{"title":"The Political Economy of Intellectual Property Piracy: Do the Special 301 Pressures Matter?","authors":"Sunil Kanwar","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12454","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We study the impact of the Special 301 process on global software piracy. US authorities use these legal provisions to goad countries considered as providing inadequate protection to US intellectual property, to strengthen their regimes. Estimating a panel vector autoregression, for the period 1994–2017, we find that piracy exhibits an insignificant response to Special 301 in the aggregate sample. The impulse response function reveals that the initial perturbation in piracy rates due to a shock in the Special 301 variable quickly damps out by the third period. The forecast error variance decomposition shows that the share of the change in Special 301 pressure is negligible in the total change in piracy rates. By contrast, intellectual property protection is strongly significant in curbing piracy. Exploring the heterogeneity of piracy response, a Special 301 shock reduces piracy in developed countries and countries with above-median state capacity; whereas developing countries, those with below-median state capacity, and those with below-median institutional quality, appear unable and/or unwilling to do so, increasing piracy in the short run. Countries with above-median trade dependence on the United States exhibit a counter-intuitively insignificant response to Special 301, because this group also contains some developed countries with close ties to the United States.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"934-959"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}