KyklosPub Date : 2021-06-23DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12276
Trung V. Vu
{"title":"Are genetic traits associated with riots? The political legacy of prehistorically determined genetic diversity*","authors":"Trung V. Vu","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12276","DOIUrl":"10.1111/kykl.12276","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper establishes that the worldwide distribution of political instability has its deep historical roots in genetic diversity, predetermined over the prehistoric course of the exodus of <i>Homo sapiens</i> from East Africa tens of thousands of years ago. It proposes that the relationship between prehistorically determined genetic diversity and contemporary political instability follows a U-shaped pattern. More specifically, genetic diversity at first reduces the persistence of political instability by increasing the opportunity cost of engaging in riots and revolts. However, genetically fragmented societies tend to suffer from interpersonal mistrust and the under-provision of public goods, which plausibly undermine the establishment of politically stable regimes. Using an ancestry-adjusted index of predicted genetic diversity, this paper consistently finds precise estimates that genetic diversity imparts a U-shaped influence on different measures of political instability and the probability of observing the occurrence of riots and revolts across 141 countries. Furthermore, the contribution of genetic diversity to political instability is at least partially mediated through income/productivity levels, the provision of public goods, income inequality and social trust.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12276","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77419863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2021-06-21DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12268
John O’Hagan
{"title":"Top graduate programmes in economics: Historical evolution and recent evidence","authors":"John O’Hagan","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12268","DOIUrl":"10.1111/kykl.12268","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The first part of the paper provides a novel overview narrative of the historical evolution of PhD programmes in economics from 1880, drawing on multiple sources. The second part is empirical, and, also novel in terms of the data constructed. It attempts to bring the narrative up to date by looking at the cohorts of winners of the main young economist awards in economics in the US and Europe over the last twenty years or so and to chart at which universities they obtained their doctorates and undergraduate degrees. The total number of young (at the time of the award) economists so involved exceeds 350.</p><p>The evolution of the American-style PhD programme of today is traced to the emigration of European economists to the US from Nazi-occupied Europe in the 1930s, and its subsequent spread first to Britain and then Continental Europe documented. What is new in the last twenty years or so is the emergence of many Top-50 economics departments in Europe, with corresponding highly regarded PhD programmes. However, in relation to the recent elite young award-winning economists the position in terms of PhD education of Harvard and MIT particularly remains largely unchallenged, in both the US and Europe.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12268","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76890609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2021-06-15DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12267
Maqsood Aslam, Etienne Farvaque, Franck Malan
{"title":"A disaster always rings twice: Early life experiences and central bankers' reactions to natural disasters","authors":"Maqsood Aslam, Etienne Farvaque, Franck Malan","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12267","DOIUrl":"10.1111/kykl.12267","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyze the impact of natural disasters experienced in the early life of central bankers to assess their reaction to present-day similar events. We use a panel dataset covering 68 (developed and developing) countries, for the period 2000 Q1 to 2017 Q4, to examine how the very-short-run dynamics of inflation is affected by the (actual) natural disasters, and how past experiences affect the immediate reaction of central bankers to these shocks. Our results reveal that the effect of early-life experiences is significant: central bankers who have been exposed to disasters in early life tend to manage inflation in a more conservative way in the very-short-run. The effect disappears over the course of one year, and central bankers with superior voting power have a larger influence on outcomes. Younger central bankers are more conservative than older ones, which may reveal that the early-life disasters' impact decays over time. The European Central Bank (ECB) appears immune to such influences, in conformity with expectations given the ECB's federal architecture and the size of the area it administers. The behavior revealed by our results thus signifies that central banks tend, on average to avoid any inflationary bias, inducing that the long-run impact of a disaster suffered in the formative years of an individual can bring socially positive consequences, when such an individual becomes governor of her country's central bank.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12267","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78715453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2021-06-15DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12275
M. Amelia Gibbons, Tommy E. Murphy, Martín A. Rossi
{"title":"Confinement and intimate partner violence†","authors":"M. Amelia Gibbons, Tommy E. Murphy, Martín A. Rossi","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12275","DOIUrl":"10.1111/kykl.12275","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The effect of confinement on intimate partner violence is hard to assess, partly because of usual endogeneity problems, but also because the often-used report calls poorly measure that violence. We exploit self-reported survey data from Argentina to study the extent to which the coronavirus pandemic quarantine had unintended consequences on intimate partner violence. The quarantine decree established clear exceptions for heterogeneous subsets of the population and, for reasons plausibly exogenous to the prevalence of intimate partner violence, only <i>some</i> individuals were forced to spend more time with their partners. Using this variability in exposure we find that the lockdown led to an increase between 12% and 35% in intimate partner violence, depending type of violence (emotional, physical or sexual). Given the Argentinian government imposed the full national lockdown when few people felt threatened by the virus, these effects are likely to have been triggered by the actual confinement.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12275","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91237875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2021-05-10DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12265
Pi-Han Tsai, Yongzheng Liu, Xin Liu
{"title":"Collusion, political connection, and tax avoidance in China","authors":"Pi-Han Tsai, Yongzheng Liu, Xin Liu","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12265","DOIUrl":"10.1111/kykl.12265","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Our paper is the first to examine the impact of government-firm collusion on firm tax avoidance in China by applying an instrumental variable approach. We take political turnover of local leaders as an external shock to the existing collusion and investigate firms' tax avoidance activities during local leadership transition. By using data on political turnover of prefectural leaders and listed firms from 2007 to 2014, we find that political turnover leads to the instability of existing collusion, and consequently a decrease in firm tax avoidance. This provides evidence of the pre-existing collusion between government and firms. We then rule out the possibility that such change is driven by the effect of political uncertainty or tax competition by considering the heterogeneous effect of firms and cities. Finally, we show that firms' political connections, captured by political ties and ownership of firms, stabilize the existing collusion and help firms maintain their advantage while facing external political shocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12265","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77577653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2021-05-10DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12266
Stelios Roupakias, Spiridoula Dimou
{"title":"Immigration, diversity and institutions","authors":"Stelios Roupakias, Spiridoula Dimou","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12266","DOIUrl":"10.1111/kykl.12266","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the relationship between immigration and host countries' institutional quality, using international migration data for a sample of 130 countries over the 1990–2015 period. We employ two composite metrics of political institutions, encompassing multiple dimensions of governance. To reduce endogeneity concerns, related to immigrant settlement patterns, we employ pseudo-gravity-based instruments in a 2SLS setting. Overall, our findings withstand several robustness checks and suggest that immigration has a negative and statistically significant impact on the level of institutional development of the countries analyzed in this study. However, there is substantial heterogeneity, since the impact of migrants appears to be somewhat stronger in less developed host countries. Interestingly, these findings are entirely driven by migrants stemming from countries displaying low institutional development.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12266","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81493348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2021-04-12DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12264
Dario Maimone Ansaldo Patti, Alba Marino, Pietro Navarra
{"title":"Freedom, diversity and the taste for revolt","authors":"Dario Maimone Ansaldo Patti, Alba Marino, Pietro Navarra","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12264","DOIUrl":"10.1111/kykl.12264","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Do freedom and social diversity affect individual preferences for revolutionary action? In this paper, we study the interplay between subjective freedom, defined as autonomy in decision-making, and social diversity, measured through the extent of religious and/or ethno–linguistic fractionalization. Our paper is based on three hypotheses about the impact of the above two variables and their interaction on individual preferences for revolt. Our hypotheses are tested using a dataset containing information on about 44,000 individuals and covering 51 different countries during the 1990–2003 period. Our research suggests that people that define themselves as free individuals are less likely to support revolutionary actions, while the extent of fractionalization mildly affects such a probability. Interestingly, subjective freedom moderates the impact of diversity on the individual preferences for revolt if the extent of fractionalization is below a certain threshold. Instead, when above, subjective freedom enhances the impact of diversity on the taste for revolt.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12264","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89041250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2021-02-26DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12258
Geert Jennes
{"title":"Interregional fiscal transfers resulting from central government debt: New insights and consequences for political economy","authors":"Geert Jennes","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12258","DOIUrl":"10.1111/kykl.12258","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The political geography of central government debt has hardly been investigated. We propose a method for calculating implicit interregional transfers stemming from central government debt.</p><p>We apply this method to Belgium over the 1970-2016 period. The share of poorer Francophone Belgium in debt-financed central government <i>spending</i> was persistently larger than its share in central government <i>revenue</i> used to pay the resulting interest bills. The opposite holds for richer Flanders. Also, a primary deficit in <i>one particular year</i> leads to an interest bill in <i>each of the following years</i> as long as debt caused by that primary deficit is not repaid. All the above caused debt-related transfers from Flanders to Francophone Belgium of over 7% of Flemish GDP during many years.</p><p>Interregional interest transfers may also be large in the many other democracies suffering from both high central government debt and considerable geographic income disparities.</p><p>The size of these transfers may <i>in turn explain</i> the size and persistence of central government deficits. This is also because poorer, less densely populated regions such as Francophone Belgium tend to be overrepresented within central governments. This strengthens their ability to cause deficits.</p><p>We recommend more fiscal decentralisation or at least smaller central government deficits.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12258","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83241643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2021-01-28DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12260
Giuseppe Albanese, Emma Galli, Ilde Rizzo, Carla Scaglioni
{"title":"Transparency, civic capital and political accountability: A virtuous relation?","authors":"Giuseppe Albanese, Emma Galli, Ilde Rizzo, Carla Scaglioni","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12260","DOIUrl":"10.1111/kykl.12260","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Our paper investigates the intertwined relation among transparency, civic capital and political accountability in a large sample of Italian municipalities using a new indicator of institutional transparency. Firstly, we test the hypothesis that civic capital affects transparency of public administrations; secondly, we verify whether in municipalities where civic capital is high, citizens’ attention toward government accountability is also high, making it politically unfeasible to disregard the demand for transparency. We find that civic capital positively affects transparency and the latter, in turn, is politically rewarding for the local administrators only conditional to the level of civic capital. Our findings are robust to different samples and endogeneity concerns.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12260","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86881505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2021-01-28DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12263
Bruno S. Frey
{"title":"Backward-oriented economics","authors":"Bruno S. Frey","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12263","DOIUrl":"10.1111/kykl.12263","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nowadays, academic journals of high standing rarely accept a conceptual idea in a paper not instantly accompanied by econometric estimates. The idea would almost certainly get rejected. Empirical validation based on past statistical data has produced an unfortunate backward orientation in economics. While one can learn from the past, this approach fails when the underlying conditions strongly change.</p><p>The paper suggests various possibilities to overcome the intense publication pressure in so-called top journals and the overemphasis on instant empirical evidence. Academia is, however, unlikely to adapt. As economics is too backward oriented, other disciplines or cranks may well dominate future economic policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/kykl.12263","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90686114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}