Revisiting the resource curse: Does volatility matter?

Abstract

Countries with abundant natural resources often possess greater wealth, yet the impact of these resources on economic growth remains unclear. This paper examines how natural-resource abundance and its volatility impact economic growth. It questions whether natural resources themselves are a curse or if the negative growth effects are due to the volatility of natural-resource revenues. The study also investigates how volatility of natural resources affects key economic growth channels, such as investment, human capital, and institutional quality. Using the standard panel model and panel smooth transition regression (PSTR), the paper analyzes data from 125 countries (1988–2020). Results show that natural-resource abundance boosts economic growth, contradicting the resource-curse theory. However, the growth impact is non-linear and varies with natural-resource volatility. Countries with high volatility face up to a 22 percentage point annual GDP growth loss compared with those with low volatility, suggesting that volatility and poor government responses drive the resource-curse paradox, not the abundance of resources per se.