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Perceptions, Contagion, and Civil Unrest 观念、传染和内乱
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12443
Christophe Abi-Nassif, Asif Mohammed Islam, Daniel Lederman
{"title":"Perceptions, Contagion, and Civil Unrest","authors":"Christophe Abi-Nassif,&nbsp;Asif Mohammed Islam,&nbsp;Daniel Lederman","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12443","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper investigates the impact of citizens' perceptions of economic and political conditions on nonviolent uprisings. For a global sample of high-income (Europe) and developing economies (Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East and North Africa), on average, negative perceptions of political conditions have a significant positive effect on the number of anti-government protests and general strikes while negative perceptions of economic conditions do not, even after accounting for actual economic conditions and the quality of governance. This holds for European and high-income countries but not for developing economies where both economic and political perceptions matter. The international contagion of protests attenuates this regional heterogeneity, possibly implying that in Europe, the incidence of uprisings in nearby countries tends to generate protests at home through its effect on political perceptions. This invites the possibility of countries perennially facing vicious cycles of protests. Overall, the effects of political perceptions and protest contagion are robust to the inclusion of numerous control variables, seemingly valid instrumental variables, alternative count-data estimators, and sample composition.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"822-851"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Spillover Effects of Corruption Controls: Focusing on the Public Sector in Vietnam 腐败控制的空间溢出效应：以越南公共部门为例
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12445
Nhan Thanh Trinh, Khoa Anh Trinh
{"title":"Spatial Spillover Effects of Corruption Controls: Focusing on the Public Sector in Vietnam","authors":"Nhan Thanh Trinh,&nbsp;Khoa Anh Trinh","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12445","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study contributes to the literature on corruption by exploring the impact of corruption controls in one region on corruption in other regions within a country, known as the spatial spillover effect. Specifically, using spatial econometric models and a panel dataset from all 63 provinces in Vietnam during the 2011–2023 period, the study finds that the spatial spillover effect of corruption controls on corruption can function through three main channels: (1) Corruption controls directly impact corruption within a province, subsequently affecting corruption in neighbouring provinces through the spatial spillover effect of corruption; (2) corruption control practices directly affect corruption in neighbouring provinces; and (3) corruption control practices in the given province affect corruption control practices in neighbouring provinces, changing corruption there. However, this effect is primarily generated by the adjacent provinces and dramatically diminishes corresponding to the increase in distance between provinces. The results also suggest that the effect of current corruption control efforts is more potent than the past efforts. These findings offer valuable information to policymakers enacting anticorruption initiatives.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"787-806"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of Teaching Practices on Life Satisfaction and Test Scores: Evidence From the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 教学实践对生活满意度和考试成绩的影响：来自国际学生评估项目（PISA）的证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12441
Kelsey J. O'Connor, Stefano Bartolini
{"title":"Effects of Teaching Practices on Life Satisfaction and Test Scores: Evidence From the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA)","authors":"Kelsey J. O'Connor,&nbsp;Stefano Bartolini","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12441","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Schools present an ideal setting for intervention. We demonstrate that a greater prevalence of group discussion used in schools positively affects students' life satisfaction and noncognitive skills, and has no negative impact on test scores, based on a sample from the 2015 PISA, which includes more than 35 thousand students from approximately 1500 schools in 14 countries. We perform regressions of student life satisfaction on school-level group discussion and lecturing, including a battery of controls and random intercepts by school. For robustness, we use instrumental variables and methods to account for school-selection. The impact of group discussion is meaningful—a one-standard-deviation increase leads to an increase in life satisfaction that is about one-half of the negative-association with grade repetition. In contrast, lecturing does not have any effects. We are the first to show group discussion improves student life satisfaction and noncognitive skills, and thereby likely positively affects later-life outcomes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 3","pages":"749-774"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On a Transformation of the Gini Coefficient into a Well-Behaved Social Welfare Function 论基尼系数转化为一个规整的社会福利函数
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12420
Oded Stark
{"title":"On a Transformation of the Gini Coefficient into a Well-Behaved Social Welfare Function","authors":"Oded Stark","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12420","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12420","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Following Sen’s (1973) characterization of the Gini coefficient as a ratio between a measure of aggregate income-based stress (“depression” in Sen’s terminology) and aggregate income, we transform the Gini coefficient into a social welfare function rather than having the Gini coefficient feature as an input in a social welfare function as in Sen (1973 and 1997), Sen (1976), and Sen (1982). The “Gini social welfare function” assigns weights that reflect preferences to aggregate income and to aggregate income-based stress (income inequality), a desirable property that a social welfare function in which the Gini coefficient features as an input does not have. The transformation bears on the formation of public policy and on the welfare analysis of policy interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 2","pages":"301-304"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.12420","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143787098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Early Evidence of “Finance for Normal People” in the First Era of Globalization 第一次全球化时代“普通人金融”的早期证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12439
Maxime Merli, Antoine Parent
{"title":"Early Evidence of “Finance for Normal People” in the First Era of Globalization","authors":"Maxime Merli,&nbsp;Antoine Parent","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12439","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we unearth a forgotten study of Pierre Des Essars, the director of research at the Banque de France in the late 19th century, enriched with comments from contemporary financial analysts. Des Essars provides the first and only existing example of the actual composition of French individual portfolios during the <i>Belle Époque</i>. By revisiting what is generally taught, our analyses show that many of the intuitions of “finance for normal people” were already present in the financial analysts' writings during the <i>Belle Époque</i>. Specifically, we show in an unprecedented way that these writings prefigure behavioral portfolio theory word for word a century before its emergence. In addition, our findings highlight that this popular science of investment was born from observations of individual portfolios and the objective of providing financial education for the masses. Finally, we reveal strong invariants in the construction of behavioral finance versus standard finance a century apart.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 2","pages":"718-728"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.12439","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143786739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Serial Position Bias Among Experts: Evidence From a Cooking Competition Show 专家的连续立场偏差：来自烹饪比赛节目的证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-01-19 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12436
Maira Emy Reimão, Rachel Sabbadini, Eric Rego
{"title":"Serial Position Bias Among Experts: Evidence From a Cooking Competition Show","authors":"Maira Emy Reimão,&nbsp;Rachel Sabbadini,&nbsp;Eric Rego","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12436","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p><i>The Great British Bake Off</i> is a popular amateur cooking competition show, and its design offers an opportunity for analyzing serial position bias among expert rankings. In this paper, we use the technical challenge portion of the show to assess whether experts—in this case, the judges in the show—are susceptible to primacy or recency effects. We find that expert judges favor the first dish tasted in a blind test and that this pattern holds not only among judges of the British version of the show but also in other English-speaking versions. We do not find evidence of a recency effect. Our results indicate that expert assessments, regularly used in markets, are vulnerable to bias even when there are no financial incentives.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 2","pages":"701-717"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143787339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Indirect Consequences of Locally Observed Corruption on Taxpayers' Motivation to Cheat on Taxes 地方观察腐败对纳税人偷税动机的间接影响
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12435
Abu Bakkar Siddique
{"title":"Indirect Consequences of Locally Observed Corruption on Taxpayers' Motivation to Cheat on Taxes","authors":"Abu Bakkar Siddique","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12435","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Corruption undermines the fiscal agreement between governments and taxpayers, thereby reducing the motivation to fulfill tax obligations and leading to a rise in dishonest behavior among citizens. To examine the effects of corruption, this study utilizes the locally observed corruption question, which provides a new measure of corruption at the local level, in contrast to corruption measures offered by the typical national corruption perception question. Employing a multilevel hierarchical mixed-effect modeling approach, the analysis reveals that locally observed corruption substantially diminishes tax morale, a metric that assesses individuals' willingness not to cheat on taxes. Additionally, this paper identifies various factors that mediate the effects of corruption, including fairness in the tax system, ethnic diversity, and public policies. Furthermore, the study conducts several hypothesis tests to eliminate potential alternative explanations, such as the influence of peers and reduced expected costs of cheating resulting from exposed corruption.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 2","pages":"648-681"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143786996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Little Lies, Sweet Little Lies: Motivations for Municipal Financial Statement Misclassification 小谎言，甜蜜的小谎言：市政财务报表分类错误的动机
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12432
Fabio Fiorillo, Federico Quaresima
{"title":"Little Lies, Sweet Little Lies: Motivations for Municipal Financial Statement Misclassification","authors":"Fabio Fiorillo,&nbsp;Federico Quaresima","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12432","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper aims at shedding light on the plausible motivations for misclassification of a public accounting report. This issue has not been studied by scholars as much as misreporting. We will analyze misclassification errors which occurred in Italy from 2008 to 2010. In 2008, the municipal tax on main houses (Imposta comunale sugli immobili, ICI) was substituted with an intergovernmental grant of an equal amount. About 38% of municipalities did not register the compensatory grants in the correct budget line. Our analysis suggests that misclassification errors respond to a willingness to reduce external stakeholders' pressure on local governments decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 2","pages":"607-630"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.12432","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143786992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do Inconsistent Public Opinions Explain Inconsistent Policies? 不一致的民意能解释不一致的政策吗？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12433
Danko Tarabar
{"title":"Do Inconsistent Public Opinions Explain Inconsistent Policies?","authors":"Danko Tarabar","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12433","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper examines whether inconsistent public sentiments on capitalism may lead governments to adopt incoherent economic liberalization packages characterized by uneven attention to different policy areas. We propose that inconsistent sentiments obstruct political consensus-building on reform trajectory within governing coalitions. These questions are explored empirically using a sample of up to 25 postsocialist countries during the initial phase of their market transition (1991–2001). We present evidence that ideological inconsistency of the median voter—defined as the standard deviation of median capitalism-related sentiments among likely voters—is associated with more fractionalized governing coalitions along party lines and that, in turn, higher government fractionalization increases the dispersion of promarket policies. Countries with greater economic policy dispersion have historically experienced lower income growth rates, highlighting the importance of maintaining balanced reform paths.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 2","pages":"631-647"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143786993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Distributional Effects of Expansionary Monetary Policy 扩张性货币政策的分配效应
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Kyklos Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12438
Robert Gmeiner
{"title":"The Distributional Effects of Expansionary Monetary Policy","authors":"Robert Gmeiner","doi":"10.1111/kykl.12438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12438","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Monetary expansion can lead to inflation. Using economy-wide measures, such as the all item CPI or the GDP deflator, these effects can be quantified, but this leaves open the question of which prices are inflating more, and thus whether monetary expansion is more harmful to the rich or poor, depending on their respective consumption patterns. This paper constructs quarterly consumer price indices specific to each income quintile in the United States from 1990 to 2022. Using transfer function autoregressive moving average models with exogenous regressors (ARMAX), significant inflationary effects of monetary expansion CPIs for the lowest income quintile are observed that are independent of changes in the CPI for higher income quintiles. More generally, households that are likely to spend a higher proportion of income on goods with inelastic demand experience higher inflation rates. These effects, which are robust to specification, are caused by monetary expansion from Federal Reserve purchases of government debt, but not other assets.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"78 2","pages":"587-606"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143786676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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