KyklosPub Date : 2026-07-03Epub Date: 2026-04-30DOI: 10.1111/kykl.70057
Matthias Collischon, Florian Zimmermann
{"title":"Is Your Career Determined by the Stars? Western Zodiac Signs and Labor Market Outcomes in Germany","authors":"Matthias Collischon, Florian Zimmermann","doi":"10.1111/kykl.70057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.70057","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An increasing share of people believes that zodiac signs predict life outcomes, like career trajectories, even though there is no scientific basis for this claim. Using German administrative data covering more than 11 million observations from 1 million individuals, we investigate whether Zodiac signs determine labor market outcomes. Since Zodiac signs are supposed to affect personality, and personality is associated with wages, Zodiac signs might shape an individual's labor market success in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Descriptively, we find that Capricorns (born mid-December to mid-January) earn, on average, slightly lower wages compared to individuals with other Zodiac signs. When applying a causal regression discontinuity design comparing only individuals born 7 days around the respective cutoffs, we find zero effects of Zodiac signs on wages, education, and managerial status. Given the considerable sample size, the zero effects are likely not caused by low statistical power but show that Zodiac signs do not determine individuals' labor market outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"79 3","pages":"796-805"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.70057","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148387029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2026-07-03Epub Date: 2026-04-14DOI: 10.1111/kykl.70054
Michele Giuseppe Giuranno, Mauro Sebastian Manni
{"title":"The Impact of TikTok on Elections: (Mis)information and Regulatory Challenges","authors":"Michele Giuseppe Giuranno, Mauro Sebastian Manni","doi":"10.1111/kykl.70054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.70054","url":null,"abstract":"<p>TikTok's algorithm-driven feed is reshaping electoral communication, yet a clear understanding of its effects is lacking. This study synthesizes and appraises evidence on how the platform's design and governance shape political (dis)information and may affect electoral dynamics. Based on a systematic review of 140 studies published between 2021 and 2025, the paper identifies several recurring patterns. The literature suggests that the platform's algorithms tend to amplify sensational content and may increase youth exposure to political messaging. National security concerns over data sovereignty have prompted platform bans, and opaque “visibility moderation” policies may hinder efforts to correct misinformation. Current research is often limited by small samples and restricted data access, which affects the generalizability of findings. We conclude that TikTok functions as a fast-moving marketplace for political ideas in which algorithmic incentives may shape conditions relevant to electoral integrity. Therefore, transparent data access and continued cross-disciplinary research are important for addressing these challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"79 3","pages":"724-742"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.70054","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2026-07-03Epub Date: 2026-02-22DOI: 10.1111/kykl.70050
Ryan H. Murphy
{"title":"Pronoun Drop as an Instrumental Variable","authors":"Ryan H. Murphy","doi":"10.1111/kykl.70050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.70050","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A growing literature in comparative economics uses linguistic structure in empirical work to explain differences in culture and economic behavior, through the theoretical mechanism of linguistic relativity (or the “Sapir–Whorf hypothesis”). This paper explores the usage of one of these variables, pronoun drop, which denotes whether or not a language makes the first-person subject pronouns optional, and its application as an instrument for culture. It ultimately argues that, even though this application is now common, it clearly violates the independence assumption because culture can affect language just as language can affect culture. It speculates further on the implications for other linguistic variables, both as instruments and when used as explanatory variables.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"79 3","pages":"629-635"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.70050","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2026-07-03Epub Date: 2026-04-24DOI: 10.1111/kykl.70055
Alessandro Cascavilla
{"title":"Is Individual Tax Compliance a Matter of Meritocracy? The Role of Perceived Social Mobility on Tax Morale","authors":"Alessandro Cascavilla","doi":"10.1111/kykl.70055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.70055","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the relationship between perceived social mobility (PSM), proxied by the belief that success depends on personal effort rather than luck, and tax morale, defined as individuals' intrinsic willingness to pay taxes. While prior research widely analyzes the determinants of tax compliance, the role of subjective perceptions of mobility remains underexplored. Employing data from the seventh wave of the World Values Survey, which covers citizens belonging to 63 countries, this paper provides empirical evidence about the relationship between PSM and individual tax preferences. Individuals who perceive society as meritocratic tend to express greater willingness to comply with fiscal duties, while subjects who attribute personal success to luck show lower tax morale. The relationship is strongest among upwardly mobile respondents and weakest among those who experienced downward mobility. These results are robust across multiple econometric strategies, including instrumental variables estimation. Beyond this baseline relationship, which has been confirmed across different world's macro-regions, the analysis of interactions shows that the positive impact of PSM on tax morale is complemented by social trust while, conversely, PSM acts as a partial substitute for redistributive preferences. In fact, while support for redistribution is generally associated with higher tax morale, its marginal effect weakens as individuals increasingly perceive the social system as meritocratic. This evidence highlights how individual fiscal preferences can be based on citizens' perception of the society as meritocratic and that not only the actual but also the perceived social mobility may strengthen tax morale and encourage greater voluntary compliance.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"79 3","pages":"743-768"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2026-07-03Epub Date: 2026-04-10DOI: 10.1111/kykl.70052
Verónica Amarante, Marisa Bucheli, Tatiana Pérez
{"title":"Ideology and Economist's Views on Inequality and Discrimination: Evidence From Uruguay","authors":"Verónica Amarante, Marisa Bucheli, Tatiana Pérez","doi":"10.1111/kykl.70052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.70052","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper investigates how the ideological profiles of Uruguayan economists relate to their opinions regarding inequality and discrimination. Based on survey data, we explore the links between three ideological dimensions—political orientation, sexist attitudes (benevolent and hostile), and pro-market beliefs—and their opinions. We find that right-wing political ideology, hostile sexism, and pro-market attitudes are consistently associated with lower agreement that income distribution should be more equitable, lower recognition of gender and racial discrimination, and reduced support for redistributive and antidiscrimination policies. By contrast, benevolent sexism exhibits weaker and more inconsistent associations with economists' views. We further show that whereas diagnostic assessments mediate the relationship between ideology and policy preferences, ideological orientations continue to exert direct effects on policy views even after controlling for diagnoses. These findings reveal that disagreements among economists about inequality and discrimination reflect not only different interpretations of evidence but also distinct normative commitments shaped by ideology. Our results challenge the notion of economics as a value-neutral discipline and highlight the need for greater reflexivity about how personal beliefs influence economic analysis and policy recommendations.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"79 3","pages":"700-723"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2026-07-03Epub Date: 2026-05-12DOI: 10.1111/kykl.70060
Sara Casagrande, Bruno Dallago
{"title":"An Empirical Analysis of Institutional Coevolution in the European Union","authors":"Sara Casagrande, Bruno Dallago","doi":"10.1111/kykl.70060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.70060","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Institutional effectiveness is widely considered an important factor for the success of the European integration process. The article investigates how the coevolution of formal and informal institutions influenced economic performance within the European Union from 1980 to 2019. Results indicate that all countries have achieved strong formal institutional frameworks but still diverge mostly in terms of informal institutional development. Cluster analysis reveals how many Eastern European member countries experienced a fast and asymmetric institutional development to the advantage of political and judicial formal ones with modest economic effects. The opposite happened among many Central and Northern European member countries, which improved mostly their informal institutions through their interaction with robust formal institutional frameworks. Bootstrap panel Granger causality test and panel data analysis suggest that economic performance is positively influenced by informal institutions while the formal ones seem to be a necessary but not sufficient condition for economic progress. As the level of economic development increases, causality tends to reverse in favor of informal institutions. The analysis of institutional development trajectories reveals how better economic performance can be achieved when formal and informal institutions keep pace with one another. These insights are important to design European policies and reforms.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"79 3","pages":"842-857"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.70060","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2026-07-03Epub Date: 2026-01-27DOI: 10.1111/kykl.70048
Christian Gunadi
{"title":"E-Verify Mandates and Voting Behavior of Naturalized Citizens in the United States","authors":"Christian Gunadi","doi":"10.1111/kykl.70048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.70048","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In recent decades, there has been a toughening of immigration enforcement in the United States. One of the major initiatives is E-Verify mandates, which require some or all employers to check the work eligibility of new hires. This study examines the impact of E-Verify mandates on the voting propensity of naturalized citizens. Using a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the temporal and geographical variation in the implementation of the mandates across US states, the results of the analysis indicate a temporary rise in the likelihood of a naturalized citizen reporting that they voted in the most recent November election. This finding suggests that immigration enforcement policies directed at undocumented migrants may generate political responses from other migrant groups who are not directly targeted by them.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"79 3","pages":"599-607"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2026-07-03Epub Date: 2026-02-06DOI: 10.1111/kykl.70041
Gregory Clark, Christian Alexander Abildgaard Nielsen
{"title":"The Returns to Education: A Meta-Study","authors":"Gregory Clark, Christian Alexander Abildgaard Nielsen","doi":"10.1111/kykl.70041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.70041","url":null,"abstract":"<p>There have been many studies estimating the causal effect of an additional year of education on earnings. The majority employ administrative changes in the minimum school-leaving age as the mechanism allowing identification. Here, we survey 79 such estimates. However, remarkably, while the majority of these studies find substantial gains from education, a number of well-grounded studies find no effect. The average return from these studies still implies substantial average gains from an extra year of education: an average of 8.2%. But the pattern of reported returns shows clear evidence of publication biases: omission of studies where the return was not statistically significantly above 0, and where the estimated return was negative. Correcting for these omitted studies, the implied average causal returns to an extra year of schooling will be only in the range 0%–3%.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"79 3","pages":"608-628"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.70041","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2026-07-03Epub Date: 2026-02-27DOI: 10.1111/kykl.70049
Pál Czeglédi
{"title":"Why Do Prosocial People Dislike Markets in Some Countries and Like Them in Others?","authors":"Pál Czeglédi","doi":"10.1111/kykl.70049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.70049","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Based on the <i>doux commerce</i> thesis, which suggests that people in market-oriented societies hold stronger prosocial values than those in less market-oriented ones, one can expect prosocial and pro-market values to be positively associated. The fact that the association holds for cross-country observations but does not universally hold for cross-individual observations within countries is a puzzle, the paper argues, and it explains this by assuming that market preferences are expressive. It argues that this assumption implies that the link between prosocial and pro-market values should vary with national institutions because the latter reflect prevailing beliefs about markets. The prediction is tested by individual-level regressions that use post-materialism and generalised trust as indicators of prosocial values and ownership preferences as an indicator of pro-market values from the International Values Survey. The regressions support the prediction by showing that the within-country association between these values can be either positive or negative, depending on institutional context and political identity. The moral consequences of markets, therefore, are a key part of the argument for them.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"79 3","pages":"636-654"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.70049","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
KyklosPub Date : 2026-07-03Epub Date: 2026-04-28DOI: 10.1111/kykl.70056
Christian Bjørnskov, Martin Rode
{"title":"Capitalism and Femicide: an Empirical Inquiry","authors":"Christian Bjørnskov, Martin Rode","doi":"10.1111/kykl.70056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.70056","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the claim that capitalism (or neoliberal reforms) is associated with higher rates of femicide, which is often identified as an outcome of the capitalist exploitation of women in parts of the feminist literature. Employing a panel of 163 countries observed between 1990 and 2023, we find no significantly positive relationship between the Economic Freedom of the World index and different measures that approximate the concept of femicide. If anything, we partially find a significantly negative effect, particularly when not conditioning on income, which likely constitutes an important long-run transmission channel of the impact of pro-market institutions for reducing deadly violence against women. Even for countries with a large textile exporting sector—an industry that is heavily associated with the economic exploitation of women—more economic freedom is not significantly related to comparatively higher rates of femicide.</p>","PeriodicalId":47739,"journal":{"name":"Kyklos","volume":"79 3","pages":"769-787"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/kykl.70056","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148386515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}