Arabian Journal of Geosciences最新文献

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Research on selection and deployment of monitoring equipment based on local stability analysis model of slope 基于边坡局部稳定分析模型的监测设备选择与配置研究
IF 1.827
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2026-07-21 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-026-12554-9
Bangxin Zhang, Zongling Yan, Feng Xu, Lin Tan, Dongming Peng, Hong Dai
{"title":"Research on selection and deployment of monitoring equipment based on local stability analysis model of slope","authors":"Bangxin Zhang,&nbsp;Zongling Yan,&nbsp;Feng Xu,&nbsp;Lin Tan,&nbsp;Dongming Peng,&nbsp;Hong Dai","doi":"10.1007/s12517-026-12554-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12517-026-12554-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To improve the scientific basis and rationality of equipment selection and deployment in the slope monitoring schemes, this study proposes a monitoring scheme development framework based on a local slope-stability analysis model, examines the relationship between overall and local slope stability, and evaluates the feasibility and reliability of the resulting scheme. First, a fault tree for slope instability was constructed to prioritize the monitoring variables, and the key monitoring area was then identified by combining the risk-analysis results with the site conditions. Next, a local stability analysis model was developed to assess both the overall stability of the slope and the stability of the key monitoring area; Monitoring equipment was selected through performance, cost-effectiveness, and measurement-repeatability evaluations and was deployed in accordance with the relevant technical standards. Finally, the feasibility and reliability of the proposed scheme were evaluated by comparing it with a conventional experience-based monitoring scheme in an engineering case study. The study shows that: (1) slope risk fault tree analysis allows for rapid identification of priority monitoring areas; (2) Local stability analysis determined that the stability coefficient for the key monitoring area is 0.90, a 22% decrease compared to the overall slope stability coefficient of 1.15; (3) Compared with traditional monitoring schemes, this process-based scheme involves a 66.7% increase in the number of monitoring devices deployed. The comprehensive performance scores of the selected devices all exceed 60% of the total score, with benefit-to-cost ratios all greater than 1.0. The scheme meets accuracy requirements and offers broader monitoring coverage and greater specificity; (4) The results of the study can provide important technical ideas for the development of slope monitoring schemes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"19 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.827,"publicationDate":"2026-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148613941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Event-scale variability and uncertainty in curve number-based runoff modelling under data-scarce conditions 数据稀缺条件下基于曲线数的径流模型的事件尺度变异性和不确定性
IF 1.827
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2026-07-16 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-026-12559-4
Murari Lal Gaur, Nirav K. Butani
{"title":"Event-scale variability and uncertainty in curve number-based runoff modelling under data-scarce conditions","authors":"Murari Lal Gaur,&nbsp;Nirav K. Butani","doi":"10.1007/s12517-026-12559-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12517-026-12559-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding rainfall–runoff dynamics in data-scarce regions remains a critical challenge under increasing hydro-climatic variability. This study investigates event-scale runoff behaviour across four gauged watersheds (212–1878 km²) in semi-arid to sub-humid western India using long-term hydro-meteorological observations (2005–2016). Watershed characteristics and rainfall patterns were analysed to estimate Curve Numbers (CN) and assess runoff response under varying antecedent moisture conditions (AMC I–III). Runoff volumes were computed using the SCS–Curve Number approach, while hydrograph timing and peak discharge were simulated through the SCS dimensionless unit hydrograph. Model performance showed satisfactory to high agreement with observations (NSE = 0.63–0.98) across diverse events and watershed scales. A total of 91 screened storm events from four gauged watersheds (212–1878 km²) formed the basis for calibration, validation and sensitivity assessment. The results indicate pronounced temporal variability in CN, strong non-linear dependence of runoff generation on antecedent moisture, and systematic attenuation of peak discharge with increasing catchment size. The study demonstrates that event-specific Curve Numbers cannot be reliably represented by a single watershed value, with runoff sensitivity increasing markedly under wetter antecedent conditions and across larger catchments. Comparative analysis across four natural watersheds further reveals that watershed structure and antecedent moisture jointly govern runoff uncertainty and hydrograph response. These findings provide practical guidance for uncertainty-aware application of the SCS-CN method in data-scarce, monsoon-dominated basins and contribute new evidence on the transferability of event-scale runoff modelling across contrasting watershed scales.</p><h3>Graphical abstract</h3><p>Note: Event-scale analysis across four monsoon-dominated watersheds demonstrates that runoff generation is governed by dynamic curve number variability, antecedent moisture conditions, and watershed structure rather than rainfall magnitude alone. The study highlights the non-linear sensitivity of runoff response and supports the use of uncertainty-aware, parsimonious modelling approaches for reliable hydrological prediction in data-scarce environments</p><div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"19 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.827,"publicationDate":"2026-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148466301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Imaging shallow velocity structure and major stratigraphic layers using microtremor surveys: a case study from the northern Cambay Rift 用微震测量成像浅层速度结构和主要地层:以北坎贝裂谷为例
IF 1.827
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2026-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-026-12553-w
Harsh Limbachiya, Sumer Chopra
{"title":"Imaging shallow velocity structure and major stratigraphic layers using microtremor surveys: a case study from the northern Cambay Rift","authors":"Harsh Limbachiya,&nbsp;Sumer Chopra","doi":"10.1007/s12517-026-12553-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12517-026-12553-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Cambay Rift Basin of western India is an asymmetric rift formed during Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary rifting and has been extensively studied for hydrocarbon exploration. It is bounded by ENE-WSW to E-W trending normal faults that define horst–graben geometries, and it remains tectonically active, as reflected in moderate seismicity. In this study, 52 microtremor measurements were carried out along two E–W profiles in the Patan and Mehsana regions to investigate shallow subsurface structure. Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) analyses provided 1D shear-wave velocity and fundamental frequency estimates at each site. Predominant frequencies range from 0.11 to 5 Hz in Patan and 0.12–1.5 Hz in Mehsana, indicating strong lateral variations in sediment thickness. The 1D shear-wave velocity models identify 3–4 major stratigraphic layers, with velocities increasing with depth and maximum values of 1150–1500 m/s occurring in the thick sedimentary zones. Bedrock is shallow near basin margins but deepens towards the central graben due to faulted blocks. Major stratigraphic layers, including the Cambay Shale, were mapped up to ~ 1800 m depth, consistent with magnetotelluric and gravity studies. The derived V<sub>S30</sub> values from 1D velocity models lie between 285 and 480 m/s. Overall, the study highlights the potential of microtremor surveys as a rapid and cost-effective tool for subsurface characterization in complex tectonic settings such as the Cambay Rift Basin. While the HVSR-based modelling provides robust first-order constraints on site resonance characteristics, the inferred subsurface models remain inherently non-unique and represent geologically plausible solutions constrained by the available ambient noise data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"19 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.827,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148433617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geospatial approach to morphometric and hypsometric analysis for subwatershed prioritization: a case study from the Chalakudy River basin 地理空间方法对小流域优先排序的形态计量和假设分析:以Chalakudy河流域为例
IF 1.827
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2026-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-026-12543-y
Kathriguppe Venkatesh Murali, Srinivasan Korappath, Gopakumar Sukumaran, Ajith Balakrishnan, Rema KP, Amol Pandurang Jarag
{"title":"Geospatial approach to morphometric and hypsometric analysis for subwatershed prioritization: a case study from the Chalakudy River basin","authors":"Kathriguppe Venkatesh Murali,&nbsp;Srinivasan Korappath,&nbsp;Gopakumar Sukumaran,&nbsp;Ajith Balakrishnan,&nbsp;Rema KP,&nbsp;Amol Pandurang Jarag","doi":"10.1007/s12517-026-12543-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12517-026-12543-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Watershed parameters significantly influence hydrological availability and water scarcity in a given region through geomorphological processes. Hence, an accurate assessment of the geometric parameters is vital for understanding the resulting hydrological impacts, such as floods and droughts. A precise and efficient decision-making approach relies on relevant geospatial techniques. Therefore, morphometric and hypsometric analyses were prioritised for the sub-watersheds of the Chalakudy River Basin. Seven subwatersheds were defined for the watershed. A morphometric analysis was conducted for each subwatershed, focusing on relief, linear and areal features via the Strahler method. The final prioritization was determined by employing PCA. Among the subwatersheds, SW2 and SW4 achieved the highest rankings in the morphometric analysis. The elevation-relief ratio technique was used to determine the hypsometric integral values for every subwatershed. SW2 and SW6 were prioritized in the hypsometric analysis, whereas SW2 remained consistently high in both cases. The results of this study highlight the need to prioritize subwatersheds for land and water management programs according to levels of degradation susceptibility. This study introduces a novel dual-criteria framework that integrates PCA-based morphometric analysis with hypsometric evaluation, enhancing the robustness of watershed prioritization. The proposed methodology offers a reproducible and scientifically sound model for integrated watershed assessment in diverse geomorphic settings.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"19 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.827,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148433614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Simulation and measurement of pile settlement: a comparative study of pressure metric and numerical approaches 桩沉降的模拟与测量:压力测量与数值方法的比较研究
IF 1.827
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2026-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-026-12549-6
Mohcene Serrai, Samir Djenba, Abdelhamid Khedidja, Moufida El May
{"title":"Simulation and measurement of pile settlement: a comparative study of pressure metric and numerical approaches","authors":"Mohcene Serrai,&nbsp;Samir Djenba,&nbsp;Abdelhamid Khedidja,&nbsp;Moufida El May","doi":"10.1007/s12517-026-12549-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12517-026-12549-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the settlement behavior of pile foundations under service and ultimate loads through an integrated approach combining field investigations, pressuremeter analyses, and three-dimensional finite element modeling (FEM). Settlement predictions from the Menard pressuremeter method, based on Ménard and Rousseau (1962) and Fascicule 62 – Title V, are systematically compared with MIDAS GTS NX simulations. Parametric analysis shows that variations in clay layer thickness and stiffness significantly influence pile settlement, with soft to medium upper layers dominating deformation. Comparative results indicate that pressuremeter-based estimates generally underestimate settlement by 10–25% relative to FEM predictions, reflecting soil nonlinearity, three-dimensional stress redistribution, and pile–soil interaction effects more accurately captured by the numerical model. Calibration with field and laboratory data enhances result reliability. Optimization of pile geometry demonstrates effective control of differential settlements and serviceability compliance. Limitations include uncertainties in empirical approaches and the restricted availability of long-term field data. The proposed comparative framework highlights the added value of integrating empirical and process-based modeling for improved foundation design in clayey soils.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"19 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.827,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148433613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of urban growth on seasonal thermal patterns in a tropical India City 评估印度一个热带城市的城市增长对季节性热模式的影响
IF 1.827
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2026-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-026-12552-x
Dikshika Mahapatra, Debadatta Swain
{"title":"Assessing the impact of urban growth on seasonal thermal patterns in a tropical India City","authors":"Dikshika Mahapatra,&nbsp;Debadatta Swain","doi":"10.1007/s12517-026-12552-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12517-026-12552-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rapid urbanization is changing the land use and land cover in many parts of the world, dramatically increasing the land surface temperature (LST). This work highlights the seasonally varying influence of various surface biophysical characteristics on the LST of Bhubaneswar, a rapidly urbanizing tropical city in eastern India, from 2003 to 2024. Since the city is mainly dominated by urban land covers, with abundant vegetation and waterbodies scattered throughout, normalized difference indices of built-up, vegetation, water, moisture, bareness, impervious surfaces, and surface albedo were considered for the analysis. Urban indices were found to be most correlated with LST during winter and pre-monsoon. In contrast, water and bareness indices had the highest correlation during the post-monsoon seasons. Overall, averaged LSTs in winter and pre-monsoon were observed to have decreased, while post-monsoon LSTs have increased over the study area. Five statistical and machine learning models (multiple linear, stepwise, random forest, support vector, and neural network) were also used to examine the impact of changing land surface characteristics on LST. The random forest regression model best estimated seasonal variability of LST, as assessed from the low root mean squared error and high R<sup>2</sup> compared to the others. Inferences from this study would help in better understanding the seasonal variability of LST in response to various urban forces in tropical cities under rapid urbanization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"19 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.827,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148433610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geochemical characterization of mangrove sediments in Campo (SW-Cameroon): implications for redox conditions and depositional environment 喀麦隆Campo红树林沉积物的地球化学特征:氧化还原条件和沉积环境的意义
IF 1.827
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2026-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-026-12550-z
Ngo Maïh Bahoya Marie Priscille, Belinga Belinga Cédric, Ashukem Ethel Nkongho, Fralick Philip, Bokanda Ekoko Eric, Ekomane Emile
{"title":"Geochemical characterization of mangrove sediments in Campo (SW-Cameroon): implications for redox conditions and depositional environment","authors":"Ngo Maïh Bahoya Marie Priscille,&nbsp;Belinga Belinga Cédric,&nbsp;Ashukem Ethel Nkongho,&nbsp;Fralick Philip,&nbsp;Bokanda Ekoko Eric,&nbsp;Ekomane Emile","doi":"10.1007/s12517-026-12550-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12517-026-12550-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The morpho-physical and geochemical aspects of the sediments of the tropical mangrove ecosystem of southern Cameroon were studied to reconstruct the sedimentary environment and associated redox conditions. A total of 23 sediment samples retrieved from four cores in the Campo mangrove were subjected to detailed facies characterization (including texture, color, and grain size) alongside geochemical analyses via ICP-AES for trace elements and ICP-MS for rare earth elements. Morpho<b>-</b>physical characterization revealed a high textural diversity comprising sands, silts, and clays interspersed with fine laminar structures. These features indicate a low<b>-</b>energy depositional setting characterized by quiescent hydrodynamic conditions and intense biological activity. The chromatic variability of the deposits reflects alternating redox conditions as, corroborated by geochemical analyses (ICP<b>-</b>AES, ICP<b>-</b>MS) that show light rare earth element (LREE) enrichment, positive Gd and Eu anomalies, and diagnostic trace-element ratios (Th/U, Ni/Co, and V/Cr). The consistency of the Y/Ho ratios (26.94–29.38), alongside these supporting data, indicates that sediment accumulation occurred within a fluvio-deltaic system subject to marine incursions. This depositional environment was characterized by fluctuating redox states, oscillating between oxic and anoxic conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"19 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.827,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148433611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An objective-driven framework for hydrological model selection in data-scarce tropical regions: integrating LULC projection and uncertainty analysis 数据稀缺的热带地区水文模式选择的目标驱动框架:整合LULC预测和不确定性分析
IF 1.827
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2026-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-026-12546-9
Ekundayo A. Adesina, Hassan M. Suraj
{"title":"An objective-driven framework for hydrological model selection in data-scarce tropical regions: integrating LULC projection and uncertainty analysis","authors":"Ekundayo A. Adesina,&nbsp;Hassan M. Suraj","doi":"10.1007/s12517-026-12546-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12517-026-12546-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Hydrological model selection in data-scarce tropical basins often prioritizes software accessibility or aggregate statistical performance over empirical suitability, leading to misapplication and suboptimal water governance. This study introduces a paradigm-shifting, transferable framework arguing that alignment with specific water management objectives, not universal metrics, should dictate hydrological model choice in data-scarce tropical basins. We develop an integrated methodology combining Markov Chain-Cellular Automata LULC projection with Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, statistical residual-based model comparison, and a three-step decision guide. Applied to Nigeria’s Chanchaga River Basin (171.6% built-up expansion, 2000-2020), urbanization drove a 25.1% increase in peak discharge and 19.5% reduction in baseflow). Validation of the LULC projection yielded a Kappa index of 0.84 and an overall accuracy of 89.2%. HEC-HMS demonstrated superior peak-flow capture (high-flow NSE = 0.78), whereas SWAT better represented baseflow (low-flow NSE = 0.61). A paired t-test confirmed HEC-HMS’s statistically significant superiority in reducing simulation error (t = 3.42, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001; Cohen’s d = 0.68). A cross-calibration experiment confirmed that performance differences are structural rather than calibration-driven. Projections indicate a 37.1% total increase in peak discharge by 2027 under a business-as-usual scenario, and 18.5% (low-growth) and 9.2% (green infrastructure) under alternative scenarios. The resultant objective-driven decision framework recommends HEC-HMS for flood mitigation and SWAT for water-resource planning, providing a transferable methodology with explicit application guidelines.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"19 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.827,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148433615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predictability of summer rainfall over the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea using the monsoon intensity in the preceding winter 利用前一个冬天的季风强度对朝鲜民主主义人民共和国夏季降雨的可预测性
IF 1.827
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2026-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-026-12523-2
Sang-Il Jong, Hyon-U. Kim, Un-Sim Paek, Ryu-Gyong Pak, Sim-Hae Ri
{"title":"Predictability of summer rainfall over the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea using the monsoon intensity in the preceding winter","authors":"Sang-Il Jong,&nbsp;Hyon-U. Kim,&nbsp;Un-Sim Paek,&nbsp;Ryu-Gyong Pak,&nbsp;Sim-Hae Ri","doi":"10.1007/s12517-026-12523-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12517-026-12523-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, the anomaly indices of the winter sea surface temperature and climatic variables and the unified winter monsoon index to predict summer rainfall as accurately as possible are found, and the predictability of summer rainfall over the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (SR-DPRK) is quantitatively evaluated. The linear trend of SR-DPRK and abrupt shift are investigated. The summer monsoon index in the study region is newly defined and the validity of its definition is explained. Through the one-point lagged correlation analyses, the 14 anomaly indices and winter monsoon intensity index for the prediction of SR-DPRK are obtained, and the possible physical mechanism favorable for the enhancement of SR-DPRK is revealed. Seasonal prediction experiments for the SR-DPRK are conducted using the index which represents comprehensively the monsoon intensity in the preceding winter and two sets of predictors obtained through the lagged correlation analysis and their results are analyzed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"19 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.827,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148433616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimization of rainfall threshold models for shallow soil landslides in Shangrao, South China: a Pearson correlation-guided parametric calibration and physical validation study 上饶浅层滑坡降雨阈值模型优化——基于Pearson相关的参数定标与物理验证研究
IF 1.827
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Pub Date : 2026-07-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-026-12540-1
Jianjun Gan, Qing Liu, Yu Kaining, Liu Fangzhou, Yanwen Xin, Hao Chen
{"title":"Optimization of rainfall threshold models for shallow soil landslides in Shangrao, South China: a Pearson correlation-guided parametric calibration and physical validation study","authors":"Jianjun Gan,&nbsp;Qing Liu,&nbsp;Yu Kaining,&nbsp;Liu Fangzhou,&nbsp;Yanwen Xin,&nbsp;Hao Chen","doi":"10.1007/s12517-026-12540-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12517-026-12540-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The rainfall-induced probability threshold for shallow landslides is typically established through statistical analysis and the application of comparable rainfall threshold models, such as rainfall intensity–duration (<i>I</i>–<i>D</i>), cumulative rainfall–duration (<i>E</i>–<i>D</i>), and cumulative rainfall–intensity (<i>I</i>–<i>E</i>). In this study, 311 rainfall-triggered soil landslides in Shangrao City were analyzed to statistically characterize their rainfall conditions. To address the limitation of conventional studies and enhance threshold reliability, an integrated optimization framework was further proposed, combining Pearson correlation-guided parametric calibration, statistical model comparison, and physical simulation validation. First, Pearson correlation analysis confirmed R₃ (R = 0.575) and α = 0.8 as the optimal parameters for the study area. Then, comparative evaluation of the three threshold models showed the <i>I</i>–<i>D</i> model had the highest predictive accuracy. Finally, GeoStudio seepage-stability simulation validated the <i>I</i>–<i>D</i> threshold, ensuring it aligns with the hydromechanical processes governing slope instability.The critical threshold curves were delineated via the ordinary least squares (OLS) method, and quantitative analysis was employed to identify the optimal model for landslide early warning in Shangrao. The results indicate that: (1) The parameter <i>R</i><sub>e</sub> in the threshold model, derived from landslide events in the study area, showed the strongest correlation with the 3-day antecedent cumulative rainfall (<i>R</i><sub>3</sub>). This suggests that the 3-day rainfall accumulation can serve as a key indicator for defining landslide early warning criteria, with optimal performance achieved when the effective rainfall model parameter reaches 0.8; (2) Among the three rainfall threshold models, the <i>I-D</i> model demonstrated superior accuracy and is considered more suitable for landslide monitoring and early warning in the study area; (3) A three-level early warning system was developed: Alarm Level (<i>I</i> &gt; 71.287<i>D</i><sup>−0.770</sup>), Alert Level (39.286<i>D</i><sup>−0.770</sup> &lt; <i>I</i> &lt; 71.287<i>D</i><sup>−0.770</sup>), and Attention Level (15.355<i>D</i><sup>−0.770</sup> &lt; <i>I</i> &lt; 39.286<i>D</i><sup>−0.770</sup>). Corresponding expressions for each warning level were formulated, and a methodology for optimizing rainfall threshold parameters was proposed to enhance landslide monitoring and early warning capabilities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":476,"journal":{"name":"Arabian Journal of Geosciences","volume":"19 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.827,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148433612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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