Analytic Methods in Accident Research最新文献

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Short-term conflict-based crash risk forecasting: A Bayesian conditional peak-over-threshold approach 基于短期冲突的崩溃风险预测:贝叶斯条件峰值超过阈值方法
IF 12.5 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2025.100385
Depeng Niu, Tarek Sayed
{"title":"Short-term conflict-based crash risk forecasting: A Bayesian conditional peak-over-threshold approach","authors":"Depeng Niu,&nbsp;Tarek Sayed","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100385","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100385","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forecasting short-term crash risks is crucial for real-time road safety management, yet this research area remains largely underexplored. Classical Extreme Value Theory (EVT) models assume independent observations, limiting their ability to capture the clustering behavior in occurrence times and magnitudes of extreme traffic conflicts. To overcome this limitation, we introduce conditional peak-over-threshold (POT) models that incorporate time-varying parameters to simultaneously capture the dynamics of extreme traffic conflicts and enable forecasting for crash risk. Within the framework of marked point process (MPP) and EVT, we develop the conditional POT models based on two observation-driven approaches (self-exciting and score-driven) through Bayesian inference. A dynamic risk measure, Value-at-Risk (VaR), is employed to assess the performance of these conditional POT models for crash risk forecasting. Empirical analysis of rear-end conflict data collected from a signalized intersection across two separate days demonstrates that both self-exciting and score-driven POT models effectively characterize the clustering behavior of extreme traffic conflicts. Furthermore, backtesting confirms that conditional POT models provide more accurate crash risk forecasts than classical POT models, which tend to underestimate crash risk by ignoring temporal dependence in extreme traffic conflicts. Among the examined model specifications, score-driven POT models demonstrate superior forecasting performance. Our proposed Bayesian conditional POT approach provides probabilistic forecasting that enables direct uncertainty quantification and dynamic monitoring of crash risk, thereby supporting informed safety decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100385"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143901998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling economic loss associated with fishing vessel accidents: A Bayesian random-parameter generalized beta of the second kind model with heterogeneity in means 渔船事故经济损失建模:具有均值异质性的第二类贝叶斯随机参数广义贝塔模型
IF 12.5 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2025.100384
Yun Ye , Pengjun Zheng , Qianfang Wang , S.C. Wong , Pengpeng Xu
{"title":"Modeling economic loss associated with fishing vessel accidents: A Bayesian random-parameter generalized beta of the second kind model with heterogeneity in means","authors":"Yun Ye ,&nbsp;Pengjun Zheng ,&nbsp;Qianfang Wang ,&nbsp;S.C. Wong ,&nbsp;Pengpeng Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The distribution of economic loss associated with vessel accidents typically exhibits non-negative, continuous, positively skewed, and heavy-tailed characteristics. Another challenge in analyzing fishing vessel accidents is the absence of relevant factors. Ignoring such heterogeneity caused by unobserved factors potentially leads to inaccurate inferences. In the present study, a novel Bayesian random-parameter generalized beta of the second kind (GB2) model with possible heterogeneity in means and variances was developed. The flexible GB2 distribution was harnessed to model the skewed and heavy-tailed response variable, while the random parameters were specified to capture the unobserved heterogeneity. The proposed method was validated using an insurance claim dataset with 3448 fishing vessel accidents within Ningbo waters during 2018–2022. The proposed model successfully identified significant influential factors, including fixed parameters, random parameters, and covariates influencing the means of the random parameters. Specifically, offshore and inevitable accidents, fishing transport vessels, double-trawl vessels with mechanical failures, wide-hulled vessels, and favorable sea conditions were associated with greater economic loss. Special attention should also be paid to nighttime accidents involving steel-hulled fishing transport vessels, as this accident type emerged to result in greater loss during the pandemic lockdown period. Our approach can accommodate the abnormality, skewness, and heavy-tail of vessel accident loss data, adjust for the bias introduced by unobserved factors, and uncover the interactive relationship among covariates. Targeted countermeasures were proposed to mitigate economic loss resulting from fishing vessel accidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100384"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of vehicle age as a contributor to temporal shifts in single-vehicle driver injury severities 评估车辆年龄对单一车辆驾驶员损伤严重程度时间变化的影响
IF 12.5 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2025.100383
Emmanuel Kofi Adanu , Richard Dzinyela , Dustin Wood , Steven Jones
{"title":"Assessment of vehicle age as a contributor to temporal shifts in single-vehicle driver injury severities","authors":"Emmanuel Kofi Adanu ,&nbsp;Richard Dzinyela ,&nbsp;Dustin Wood ,&nbsp;Steven Jones","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vehicle age plays a crucial role in crash occurrence and occupant injury severity, with older vehicles historically associated with more severe injury outcomes compared to newer models. This study investigates the temporal instability of specific injury-contributing factors for single-vehicle, single-occupant crashes involving vehicles equal or less than 3 years old at the time of the crash, using data from Alabama’s Critical Analysis Reporting Environment (CARE) system. The analysis spans four time points: 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022. Preliminary data analysis indicates a reduction in new vehicle severe injury crashes from 7.25% in 2010 to 4.05% in 2022. Random parameters multinomial logit models with heterogeneity in means were developed to identify crash factors significantly related to injury outcomes. Key findings highlight the consistent trend of higher severity crashes in which drivers fail to use a seatbelt and airbags are deployed. However, there was a notable decrease in severe injuries for 3-year-old vehicles involved in crashes in 2022 compared to previous years. Model results revealed that this benefit is particularly evident in the reduced likelihood of severe injury among drivers older than 65 years where airbags were deployed over the years, except for 2010. The study indicates the importance of advancements in vehicle technology in enhancing occupant safety. It also emphasizes the need for ongoing research into driver behavior, road conditions, and the evolution of safety standards to fully leverage these technological improvements. The findings suggest that continuous updates to driver education and awareness programs are essential to reflect new technologies and changing driving environments, ensuring drivers can effectively utilize advanced safety features.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100383"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143776588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A physics-informed risk force theory for estimating pedestrian crash risk by severity using artificial intelligence-based video analytics 使用基于人工智能的视频分析,通过严重程度估计行人碰撞风险的物理知情风险力理论
IF 12.5 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2025.100382
Saransh Sahu , Yasir Ali , Sebastien Glaser , Md Mazharul Haque
{"title":"A physics-informed risk force theory for estimating pedestrian crash risk by severity using artificial intelligence-based video analytics","authors":"Saransh Sahu ,&nbsp;Yasir Ali ,&nbsp;Sebastien Glaser ,&nbsp;Md Mazharul Haque","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pedestrians are a vulnerable road user group, and assessing their crash risk at critical locations, such as signalized intersections, is crucial for developing targeted countermeasures. While conflict-based safety assessments using traffic conflict measures effectively estimate crash risk, they often overlook the heterogeneity of different motorized and non-motorized road users. Conversely, field-based theories account for road user heterogeneity, yet their application in crash risk assessment, specifically evaluating pedestrian crash risk, and particularly by severity level using real-world data, remains underexplored. This study introduces a novel application of physics-informed risk force theory for assessing pedestrian crash risk by injury severity, utilizing facility-based video data at signalized intersections. The study derives risk forces that encompass pedestrian and vehicle heterogeneity as a nearness-to-collision component and vehicle impact speed as a severity component. Stationary and non-stationary extreme value models, incorporating exogenous traffic parameters at the signal cycle level, were applied to 72 h of video data collected from three signalized intersections in Queensland, Australia. The non-stationary univariate extreme value model with risk force as a measure of nearness-to-collision reliably estimated total crash frequency compared to historical crash records. In addition, the bivariate extreme value model with risk force and impact speed reasonably predicted pedestrian crashes by severity levels. The results also indicate that an increased volume of interacting pedestrians and left-turning vehicles elevates the likelihood of total and severe crashes. The proposed pedestrian crash risk assessment framework offers a unified and efficient proactive approach that can enhance automated safety analysis of traffic facilities, thereby assisting road authorities in real-time safety management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100382"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143591645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is there an emotional dimension to road safety? A spatial analysis for traffic crashes considering streetscape perception and built environment 道路安全是否涉及情感层面?考虑街景感知和建筑环境的交通事故空间分析
IF 12.5 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2025.100374
Yiping Liu , Tiantian Chen , Hyungchul Chung , Kitae Jang , Pengpeng Xu
{"title":"Is there an emotional dimension to road safety? A spatial analysis for traffic crashes considering streetscape perception and built environment","authors":"Yiping Liu ,&nbsp;Tiantian Chen ,&nbsp;Hyungchul Chung ,&nbsp;Kitae Jang ,&nbsp;Pengpeng Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100374","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100374","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Modern streetview image data provide two types of valuable information: the objective built environment and humans’ subjective perception of the streetscape. In the road safety domain, the built environment has been identified as playing a significant role while indicators of human perception are commonly used to evaluate street quality in urban planning. However, studies examining the association between humans’ perceptions of the streetscape and traffic crashes remain limited. This study aims to address this question and to inform safety considerations at the micro level in the planning process for the targeted streets. To answer the question, this study integrates databases on motor vehicle crashes, points of interest, street view images, and road networks for the urban area of Daejeon city in South Korea in 2019. A deep learning model was employed to calculate six perceptual indicators–wealthy, lively, boring, depressing, safety, and beautiful–based on a crowdsourcing dataset. Furthermore, a Bayesian multivariate Poisson-lognormal model with spatial-varying coefficients was introduced to simultaneously account for spatial random effect and the shared unobserved effect across crash severity levels. Results indicate that four of the six perceptual variables significantly affect the number of slight injury crashes, showing spatially heterogeneous effects. Based on the values of human perception indicators and their impacts on traffic crashes, we identified road segments which need special attention to objective safety performance when considering street renovation. Additionally, built environment factors such as the proportion of vegetation, the presence of sidewalks and fences, and points of interest (including educational, health service, and commercial establishments) were found to reduce the number of motor vehicle crashes. Overall, the findings are expected to facilitate the safety-enhanced street planning project, and contribute to the development of human-centric cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100374"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143508637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A note on data segmentation, sample size, and model specification for crash injury severity modeling 关于碰撞损伤严重程度建模的数据分割、样本量和模型规范的说明
IF 12.5 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2025.100373
Qinzhong Hou , Jinglun Zhuang , Chenrui Zhai , Xiaoyan Huo , Fred Mannering
{"title":"A note on data segmentation, sample size, and model specification for crash injury severity modeling","authors":"Qinzhong Hou ,&nbsp;Jinglun Zhuang ,&nbsp;Chenrui Zhai ,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Huo ,&nbsp;Fred Mannering","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100373","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100373","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the statistical assessment of crash injury severity data has increasingly begun to segment the available crash data into observational groups to explore the possibility that such groups may share the same estimated parameters. This method is commonly used to account for parameters that may shift over time, where the data is often segmented into groups based on observational year. Unfortunately, such data segmentation can lead to small samples within each group, which has caused some concern about decreasing sample size. However, concerns about diminishing sample size are often misplaced and not well understood. In this paper, the impact of data segmentation is assessed by estimating models that address the possibility of temporally shifting parameters. Starting with a large 80,000 observation sample, the process involves randomly segmenting the data into groups with sample sizes varying from 1000 to 40,000, and then assessing the difference between the estimated data-segmented models and the overall model (using all available data) using likelihood ratio tests. The results indicate that: 1) model specification is extremely important, regardless of sample size, 2) statistical tests should be used to determine the suitability of simple versus complex models, not sample size, and 3) the variance/covariance structure of the data being considered determines model specification and sample size effects, which means sample-size requirements are data-specific, and that general statements regarding minimum sample size requirements for specific model types cannot be made.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100373"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How do drivers manage speed at tunnel entrances? Insights from uncorrelated grouped random parameters duration models for model invalidation and performance recovery times 司机如何管理隧道入口的车速?从不相关的分组随机参数持续时间模型中了解模型失效和性能恢复时间
IF 12.5 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2025.100371
Yunjie Ju , Shi Ye , Tiantian Chen , Guanyang Xing , Feng Chen
{"title":"How do drivers manage speed at tunnel entrances? Insights from uncorrelated grouped random parameters duration models for model invalidation and performance recovery times","authors":"Yunjie Ju ,&nbsp;Shi Ye ,&nbsp;Tiantian Chen ,&nbsp;Guanyang Xing ,&nbsp;Feng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100371","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100371","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Human drivers must quickly adjust to perturbations at tunnel entrances (i.e., the rapid switching of cross-sections, abrupt longitudinal changes in the driving environment, and changes in visual illumination, denoted “tunnel transition perturbations”) to regain control of their vehicles, especially when managing speed to prevent motor overshoot. Previous research has assessed drivers’ visual adaptation rather than variations in vehicle control under tunnel transition perturbations. In this study, a sample entropy method was used to measure the safety–critical duration of speed control events at tunnel entrances and thereby reveal the participants’ speed adaptation and recovery performance under tunnel transition perturbations. Two key metrics—model invalidation time and performance recovery time—were introduced, and an uncorrelated grouped random parameters hazard-based duration model was developed. Road grade, road curvature, income, and time having held a license were positively associated with model invalidation time, while a history of accidents in the past 12 months was negatively associated with model invalidation time. In addition, road grade, road curvature, and income had heterogeneous effects on model invalidation time. Moreover, a history of accidents in the past 12 months moderated the relationship between road grade and model invalidation time. Furthermore, road curvature, average annual mileage, and sleep deprivation significantly influenced performance recovery time, while road grade and non-fatigue condition had heterogeneous effects on performance recovery time. Overall, this study demonstrated that the participants’ personal characteristics and experiences significantly shaped the development of their internal models, and that their current status and perception had a substantial influence on their performance recovery under tunnel transition perturbations. These insights enhance understanding of the mechanisms of drivers’ motor control under tunnel transition perturbations and will therefore enable improvement of road traffic design and safety management at tunnel entrances.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100371"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143103716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding the effects of underreporting on injury severity estimation of single-vehicle motorcycle crashes: A hybrid approach incorporating majority class oversampling and random parameters with heterogeneity-in-means 了解漏报对单辆摩托车碰撞伤害严重程度估计的影响:一种结合多数类过抽样和随机参数的混合方法
IF 12.5 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2025.100372
Nawaf Alnawmasi , Apostolos Ziakopoulos , Athanasios Theofilatos , Yasir Ali
{"title":"Understanding the effects of underreporting on injury severity estimation of single-vehicle motorcycle crashes: A hybrid approach incorporating majority class oversampling and random parameters with heterogeneity-in-means","authors":"Nawaf Alnawmasi ,&nbsp;Apostolos Ziakopoulos ,&nbsp;Athanasios Theofilatos ,&nbsp;Yasir Ali","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100372","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100372","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The underreporting of crash data is a well-documented issue in road safety literature, but few studies have focused on addressing this problem in the context of analyzing crash injury severities. This paper aims to provide an empirical assessment of the impact of underreporting issue using a hybrid approach in estimating injury severity for single-vehicle motorcycle crashes. Unlike traditional machine learning methods that oversample the minority class (the category with the fewer observations such as fatal and severe injuries), the present study oversamples the majority class (i.e. minor injuries), which are often underreported in crash datasets, thus providing a fresh perspective on this issue. Afterwards, random parameter models with heterogeneity in means and variances were applied. The results of this study, as supported by the likelihood ratio tests, indicate that the key variables influencing motorcyclists’ injury severities remain consistent across both original and oversampled data models. Specifically, crashes occurring during slowing down or stopping are associated with lower injury severity, whereas negotiating a right turn increases the probability of severe injuries. Interestingly, crashes that occur on dry pavements are associated with higher injury severity when compared to wet pavements, likely due to rider behavior adjustments in adverse weather conditions to compensate for the risk. Overall, the oversampled models have a significantly lower marginal effects values compared to the original model’s marginal effects. This study provides a foundation for further examination of underreporting issue in crash injury severity modelling and also highlights the need to capture the dynamics of crash injuries suggesting that alternative approaches could improve the understanding and hence road safety management. Future studies are encouraged to replicate this methodology to validate the findings as well as utilize other advanced machine learning algorithms, like tree-based models to assess underreporting mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100372"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143103711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Time-dependent effect of advanced driver assistance systems on driver behavior based on connected vehicle data 基于车联网数据的高级驾驶辅助系统对驾驶员行为的时变影响
IF 12.5 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2025.100370
Yuzhi Chen , Yuanchang Xie , Chen Wang , Liguo Yang , Nan Zheng , Lan Wu
{"title":"Time-dependent effect of advanced driver assistance systems on driver behavior based on connected vehicle data","authors":"Yuzhi Chen ,&nbsp;Yuanchang Xie ,&nbsp;Chen Wang ,&nbsp;Liguo Yang ,&nbsp;Nan Zheng ,&nbsp;Lan Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100370","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2025.100370","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a novel functional data analysis approach to investigate the time-dependent effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), specifically forward collision warnings, on driver speed reduction behavior. Existing aggregate measures compress temporal information within driver behavior profiles and fail to explicitly reveal the temporal dependency of such effect. With the proposed approach, the functional representation method is adopted to capture the underlying driver behavior in response to warning messages and address issues of irregularly spaced observations and measurement errors; the results of the functional principal component analysis with the bootstrap-enhanced Kaiser-Guttman method reveal important patterns in driver response behaviors; and a nonparametric functional varying coefficient regression model, considering vehicle initial motions and drivers’ acceleration styles, is established. This regression model utilizes coefficient functions to estimate the time-dependent effect of ADAS. The proposed approach is evaluated based on the New York City connected vehicle dataset using forward collision warning event records. The results suggest that the treatment effect of the warning messages is time-dependent, initially increasing before progressively decreasing over time. Driver responses can be decomposed into several phases at the 95 % confidence level, including reaction time (1.3 s), brake adjustment time (1.3 s), progressive braking duration (2.7 s), and effective treatment duration (4.0 s). The time-dependent bootstrap confidence interval confirms driver heterogeneity in these distinct phases. The proposed functional data analysis approach can serve as a paradigm for quantifying the treatment effect of other ADAS applications. The findings can support the improvements of ADAS design and the development and calibration of driver behavior models accounting for ADAS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100370"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143103715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A unified probabilistic approach to traffic conflict detection 交通冲突检测的统一概率方法
IF 12.5 1区 工程技术
Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2024-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2024.100369
Yiru Jiao , Simeon C. Calvert , Sander van Cranenburgh , Hans van Lint
{"title":"A unified probabilistic approach to traffic conflict detection","authors":"Yiru Jiao ,&nbsp;Simeon C. Calvert ,&nbsp;Sander van Cranenburgh ,&nbsp;Hans van Lint","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100369","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100369","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traffic conflict detection is essential for proactive road safety by identifying potential collisions before they occur. Existing methods rely on surrogate safety measures tailored to specific interactions (e.g., car-following, side-swiping, or path-crossing) and require varying thresholds in different traffic conditions. This variation leads to inconsistencies and limited adaptability of conflict detection in evolving traffic environments, particularly as the integration of autonomous driving systems adds complexity. Consequently, there is an increasing need for consistent detection of traffic conflicts across interaction contexts. To address this need, we propose a unified probabilistic approach in this study. The proposed approach establishes a unified framework of traffic conflict detection, where traffic conflicts are formulated as context-dependent extreme events of road user interactions. The detection of conflicts is then decomposed into a series of statistical learning tasks: representing interaction contexts, inferring proximity distributions, and assessing extreme collision risk. The unified formulation accommodates diverse hypotheses of traffic conflicts and the learning tasks enable data-driven analysis of factors such as motion states of road users, environment conditions, and participant characteristics. Jointly, this approach supports consistent and comprehensive evaluation of the collision risk emerging in road user interactions. We demonstrate the proposed approach by experiments using real-world trajectory data. A unified metric for indicating conflicts is first trained with lane-change interactions on German highways, and then compared with existing metrics using near-crash events from the U.S. 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study. Our results show that the unified metric provides effective collision warnings, generalises across distinct datasets and traffic environments, covers a broad range of conflict types, and captures a long-tailed distribution of conflict intensity. In summary, this study provides an explainable and generalisable approach that enables traffic conflict detection across varying interaction contexts. The findings highlight its potential to enhance the safety assessment of traffic infrastructures and policies, improve collision warning systems for autonomous driving, and deepen the understanding of road user behaviour in safety–critical interactions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100369"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143103714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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