Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters最新文献_第3页

The increase in hot–dry events with a high risk of mortality in China associated with the phase transition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 中国高死亡率干热事件的增加与大西洋多年代际涛动的相变有关

IF 2.3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100609

Yuting Ma , Xinyong Shen , Liang Zhao , Zijia Wang , Huibin Wang , Yihui Ding , Jingsong Wang , Yanju Liu , Cunrui Huang

{"title":"The increase in hot–dry events with a high risk of mortality in China associated with the phase transition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation","authors":"Yuting Ma , Xinyong Shen , Liang Zhao , Zijia Wang , Huibin Wang , Yihui Ding , Jingsong Wang , Yanju Liu , Cunrui Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100609","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100609","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound extreme climate events involving multiple meteorological elements usually have a more severe impact on the environment and human health than single-element extreme events. However, the current definition of multi-element compound extreme events is proposed from meteorological and statistical perspectives, without integrating health data, making the conclusions less practical for guiding health risk prevention. This study identified the threshold for hot–dry compound extreme events with high mortality risks (HMHDs) in China, using daily mortality data and temperature–humidity data from 278 districts or counties, and explored the interdecadal change and driving mechanisms of HMHD frequency in China from 1979 to 2021. The results show a significant increase in annual HMHD frequency in China after 2000, mainly occurring in summer (June, July, August). The northwestern to western regions of China (Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu), and from the southwestern to the areas south of the Yangtze River (Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Yunnan), experience an increase of >10 days. The authors find that the interdecadal abrupt change in HMHD frequency can be attributed to the shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a negative to a positive phase by affecting the Silk Road teleconnection.</div><div>摘要</div><div>目前对复合极端事件的定义主要从气象和统计学角度出发, 未能结合健康数据, 使相关研究在指导健康风险预防方面的实用性较差. 本研究利用中国死亡数据和温湿度数据, 识别了中国高死亡风险的复合极端干热事件 (HMHDs) 的阈值, 并探讨了HMHD频率的年代际变化及其驱动机制. 结果显示, 中国西北地区, 西南地区和江南地区的HMHD频率平均每年都超过10 天. 2000年后, 中国HMHD频率显著增加, 主要发生在夏季. 驱动机制分析表明, HMHD频率的年代际变化可以归因于大西洋多年代际振荡由负相位转变为正相位. 本研究可为气候变化导致的健康风险防控提供参考依据.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 4","pages":"Article 100609"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144169701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global fire PM2.5 during 2000–2023 El Niño-Southern振荡对2000-2023年全球火灾PM2.5的影响

IF 2.3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100597

Yonghang Hu, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian

{"title":"Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global fire PM2.5 during 2000–2023","authors":"Yonghang Hu, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global climate variability, profoundly influencing regional fire activities and associated pollutant emissions. This study investigates the impacts of ENSO on global fire emissions and fire-induced PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations in 2000–2023. During El Niño events, global fire emissions increase by 5.9 %–20.0 % with regional hotspots in Indonesia, North America, and Australia, driven by anomalous warming and rainfall deficits. In contrast, La Niña events result in a 3.2 %–9.9 % reduction in global fire emissions, with regional variability depending on the fire inventories used. In response, fire-induced PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations increase substantially during El Niño, rising by 27.5 %–71.0 % in Indonesia, 49.2 %–116.5 % in North America, and 17.5 %–42.6 % in Australia. Conversely, La Niña events lead to decreases of 26.6 %–52.5 %, 19.4 %–37.3 %, 14.5 %–24.4 % in these regions, respectively. These findings highlight the critical role of ENSO in shaping fire emissions and air pollution from regional to global scales, providing valuable insights for mitigating the impacts of climatic extremes on air quality.</div><div>摘要</div><div>厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 是全球气候变化的主要驱动因素, 对区域火灾活动及其相关污染物排放有深远影响. 本研究分析了2000–2023年期间ENSO对全球火灾排放及火灾引起的PM<sub>2.5</sub>浓度的影响. 在厄尔尼诺事件期间, 由于异常增温和降水不足, 全球火灾排放增加5.9 %−20.0 %, 其中印度尼西亚, 北美和澳大利亚为火排放增幅最显著地区. 相比之下, 拉尼娜事件期间全球火灾排放减少3.2 %−9.9 %, 具体变化取决于所使用的火灾排放清单.在此背景下, 火灾引起的PM<sub>2.5</sub>浓度在厄尔尼诺事件期间显著增加, 印度尼西亚增加27.5 %−71.0 %, 北美增加49.2 %−116.5 %, 澳大利亚增加17.5 %−42.6 %; 而在拉尼娜事件期间, 这些地区的PM<sub>2.5</sub>浓度分别减少26.6 %−52.5 %, 19.4 %−37.3 %和14.5 %−24.4 %. 研究结果表明, ENSO从区域到全球尺度上深刻影响着火排放和空气污染物浓度, 相关结论为减缓极端气候事件对空气质量的影响提供了重要的科学依据.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 3","pages":"Article 100597"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A non-ENSO driver of the South China Sea winter monsoon: North Pacific sea ice 南海冬季风的非enso驱动因素：北太平洋海冰

IF 2.3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100593

Chang Kong , Xiaodan Chen , Zhiping Wen , Yuanyuan Guo

{"title":"A non-ENSO driver of the South China Sea winter monsoon: North Pacific sea ice","authors":"Chang Kong , Xiaodan Chen , Zhiping Wen , Yuanyuan Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The South China Sea winter monsoon (SCSWM), an integral component of the East Asian winter monsoon, connects extratropical and tropical regions. Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis and PAMIP simulations, the relationship between Arctic sea ice and the SCSWM is investigated. The authors reveal that its strongest relationship with Arctic sea ice occurs in the North Pacific sector, i.e., the Sea of Okhotsk and western Bering Sea. This link persists throughout the cold season, peaks when sea ice precedes the SCSWM by one month, and is independent of ENSO. North Pacific sea-ice loss weakens the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) and vertical wind shear in midlatitudes, reducing baroclinic eddy formation. Given the reduced zonal wind according to the thermal wind relation, the reduced wave activity flux in the upper troposphere must be balanced by equatorward wind based on the quasi-geostrophic momentum equation. This generates an anomalous meridional overturning circulation with descent and low-level divergence around 30°N, which intensifies the divergent component of the SCSWM. The divergent northerly anomalies also lead to cold advection and subtropical cooling. The enhanced MTG due to the subtropical cooling and weakened MTG due to high-latitude warming closely tied to reduced North Pacific sea ice displace the westerly jet southward, creating cyclonic shears over the North Pacific and intensifying the rotational component of the SCSWM. These findings establish North Pacific sea ice as a non-ENSO driver of the SCSWM, holding substantial implications for the predictability of the SCSWM.</div><div>摘要</div><div>南海冬季风作为东亚冬季风系统的重要组成部分, 在热带与热带外地区的相互作用中发挥着重要作用. 使用大气再分析数据和环流模式试验, 本研究探讨了北极海冰与南海冬季风之间的关系. 研究表明, 影响南海冬季风的北极海冰关键区在鄂霍次克海. 以鄂霍次克海和西白令海为主的北太平洋海冰减少, 可通过调节垂直经向环流和副热带急流, 显著增强南海冬季风的辐散分量和旋转分量. 这一联系不受ENSO影响, 对南海冬季风的预测以及理解北极与热带之间的联系具有重要的科学意义.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 5","pages":"Article 100593"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144696947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Subseasonal impact of extreme Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the local atmosphere in summer 青藏高原夏季极端积雪对局地大气的亚季节影响

IF 2.3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100591

Yuanyan Xu, Wenkai Li

{"title":"Subseasonal impact of extreme Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the local atmosphere in summer","authors":"Yuanyan Xu, Wenkai Li","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to the high elevation and cold climate of the Tibetan Plateau, the western region retains extensive snow cover during the summer, which can exhibit rapid variability over the course of just a few days. This study utilizes numerical experiments to investigate the atmospheric response to extreme Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TPSC) events on a subseasonal timescale during summer. The results indicate that the subseasonal variations in TPSC exert limited impact on nonlocal atmospheric circulation and temperature during this period. Nevertheless, local surface energy and atmospheric temperature exhibit rapid cooling responses to increased snow cover. Specifically, an increase in snow cover over the western Tibetan Plateau leads to a sharp rise in surface albedo, resulting in a reduction in land surface energy and a negative response in the diabatic heating rate from the surface to 350 hPa locally. This negative diabatic heating response subsequently causes a decline in both surface and overlying atmospheric temperatures. The temperature response is confined to the western Tibetan Plateau and extends vertically from the surface to approximately 350 hPa. These extreme TPSC events and their associated atmospheric impacts occur within a two-week timescale.</div><div>摘要</div><div>青藏高原海拔高, 气候寒冷, 其西部地区在夏季仍有积雪覆盖, 且积雪变化可能在数日内迅速发生. 本文通过数值试验研究了大气对夏季青藏高原极端积雪事件的次季节响应. 结果表明, 尽管极端积雪事件对非局地大气环流及温度的影响有限, 但局地地表能量收支和大气温度对积雪增加表现出快速的冷却响应. 具体而言, 青藏高原西部积雪增加会导致地表反照率迅速上升, 从而减少地表能量输入. 此变化引发了局地地表至350 hPa高度的非绝热加热率的负异常响应, 进而导致地表及上空大气温度下降. 气温响应主要局限于青藏高原西部, 并且从地表垂直延伸至约350 hPa高度. 上述夏季青藏高原极端积雪事件及其大气影响发生在两周时间内.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 5","pages":"Article 100591"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144696477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Skillful bias correction of offshore near-surface wind field forecasting based on a multi-task machine learning model 基于多任务机器学习模型的海上近地面风场预报灵巧偏差校正

IF 2.3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100590

Qiyang Liu , Anboyu Guo , Fengxue Qiao , Xinjian Ma , Yan-An Liu , Yong Huang , Rui Wang , Chunyan Sheng

{"title":"Skillful bias correction of offshore near-surface wind field forecasting based on a multi-task machine learning model","authors":"Qiyang Liu , Anboyu Guo , Fengxue Qiao , Xinjian Ma , Yan-An Liu , Yong Huang , Rui Wang , Chunyan Sheng","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100590","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate short-term forecast of offshore wind fields is still challenging for numerical weather prediction models. Based on three years of 48-hour forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System global model (ECMWF-IFS) over 14 offshore weather stations along the coast of Shandong Province, this study introduces a multi-task learning (MTL) model (TabNet-MTL), which significantly improves the forecast bias of near-surface wind direction and speed simultaneously. TabNet-MTL adopts the feature engineering method, utilizes mean square error as the loss function, and employs the 5-fold cross validation method to ensure the generalization ability of the trained model. It demonstrates superior skills in wind field correction across different forecast lead times over all stations compared to its single-task version (TabNet-STL) and three other popular single-task learning models (Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost). Results show that it significantly reduces root mean square error of the ECMWF-IFS wind speed forecast from 2.20 to 1.25 m s<sup>−1</sup>, and increases the forecast accuracy of wind direction from 50 % to 65 %. As an explainable deep learning model, the weather stations and long-term temporal statistics of near-surface wind speed are identified as the most influential variables for TabNet-MTL in constructing its feature engineering.</div><div>摘要</div><div>目前, 数值业务预报模式对沿海站点短期风场的准确预报仍存在挑战. 本研究基于欧洲中期天气预报中心ECMWF-IFS的高分辨率模式未来48小时的预报数据, 构建适用于沿海风场订正的热动力特征, 关键变量的短期和长期统计特征, 引入多任务深度学习模型 (TabNet-MTL) 对山东省14个沿海气象站的风向和风速预报同时进行订正. 相比于多个单任务学习模型 (随机森林, LightGBM, XGBoost和TabNet-STL) , TabNet-MTL模型具有显著的偏差订正优势, 风速预报的均方根误差从2.20 m s<sup>−1</sup>降低到 1.25 m s<sup>−1</sup>, 风向预报准确率从50 %提高到65 %.此外, TabNet-MTL模型具有可解释性, 特征重要性表明气象站点和近地面风速统计特征对风场订正的改善具有较大贡献.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 5","pages":"Article 100590"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144696476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimizing the key parameter to accelerate the recovery of AMOC under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing 优化关键参数，在温室气体强迫迅速增加的情况下加速恢复 AMOC

IF 2.3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100509

Haolan Ren , Fei Zheng , Tingwei Cao , Qiang Wang

{"title":"Optimizing the key parameter to accelerate the recovery of AMOC under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing","authors":"Haolan Ren , Fei Zheng , Tingwei Cao , Qiang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100509","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100509","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports, which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in climate models. Previous studies have suggested that the deviation of model parameters is one of the major factors in inducing inaccurate AMOC simulations. In this work, with a low-resolution earth system model, the authors try to explore whether a reasonable adjustment of the key model parameter can help to re-establish the AMOC after its collapse. Through a new optimization strategy, the extra freshwater flux (FWF) parameter is determined to be the dominant one affecting the AMOC's variability. The traditional ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) data assimilation and new machine learning methods are adopted to optimize the FWF parameter in an abrupt 4×CO<sub>2</sub> forcing experiment to improve the adaptability of model parameters and accelerate the recovery of AMOC. The results show that, under an abrupt 4×CO<sub>2</sub> forcing in millennial simulations, the AMOC will first collapse and then re-establish by the default FWF parameter slowly. However, during the parameter adjustment process, the saltier and colder sea water over the North Atlantic region are the dominant factors in usefully improving the adaptability of the FWF parameter and accelerating the recovery of AMOC, according to their physical relationship with FWF on the interdecadal timescale.</div><div>摘要</div><div>大西洋经向翻转环流 (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, AMOC) 通过其经向的热量和水团输送, 在气候变化中起着关键作用. 然而, 气候模式模拟未来AMOC在温室气体强迫下的变化存在较大不确定性. 模式参数的不确定性是导致AMOC产生不确定性的主要因素之一. 因此, 本文采用简化的海气耦合模式首先探寻出模式中AMOC的最敏感参数为淡水通量系数 (Freshwater Flux, FWF), 再基于集合最优插值 (Ensemble Optimal Interpolation, EnOI) 探讨通过参数优化减小温室气体强迫下AMOC模拟不确定性的可行方案. 理想试验揭示了, 北大西洋海表温度和海表盐度在温室气体强迫下的增量可以有效地优化FWF, 进而使得AMOC相比默认参数能快速收敛, 减小其在未来气候预估中的不确定性.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 1","pages":"Article 100509"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140758227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Interannual variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the northwestern Pacific influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode 受太平洋经向模式影响的西北太平洋北方夏季季内振荡的年际变化

IF 2.3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100492

Haoyu Zhou, Pang-Chi Hsu, Lin Chen, Yitian Qian

{"title":"Interannual variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the northwestern Pacific influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode","authors":"Haoyu Zhou, Pang-Chi Hsu, Lin Chen, Yitian Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100492","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During the boreal summer, intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions: the central-western equatorial Pacific (5°S–5°N, 150°E–150°W) and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific (10°–20°N, 130°E–175°W). The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO, while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), as suggested by partial correlation analysis results. To elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced (weakened) intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm (cold) PMM years, the authors employed a moisture budget analysis. The findings reveal that during warm PMM years, there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern Pacific. This increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region, leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective instability. Such a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection anomalies. The observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.</div><div>摘要</div><div>在北半球夏季, 西北太平洋地区的季节内振荡在两个主要区域呈现出显著的年际变率: 一个区域是赤道太平洋中西部 (5°S–5°N, 150°E–150°W), 另一区域为副热带西北太平洋 (10°–20°N, 130°E–175°W). 通过偏相关分析, 揭示了前者受到厄尔尼诺–南方涛动 (ENSO) 的影响, 而后者与太平洋经向模态 (PMM) 有关. 利用水汽方程诊断, 探讨了在PMM暖 (冷) 年期间, 副热带西北太平洋季节内对流活动增强 (减弱) 的物理过程. 结果表明, 在PMM暖年, 副热带西北太平洋地区的季节平均水汽增加与季节内垂直扰动的增强相互作用, 导致了对流层低层水汽垂直输送的增加, 进而引发对流不稳定性的增强, 促使季节内对流活动增强. 这一发现在以PMM海温为驱动的全球环流模式试验中也得到了验证.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 1","pages":"Article 100492"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140399719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Satellite remote sensing reveals overwhelming recovery of forest from disturbances in Asia 卫星遥感揭示了亚洲森林受干扰后的巨大恢复力

IF 2.3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100511

Yiying Zhu , Hesong Wang , Anzhi Zhang

{"title":"Satellite remote sensing reveals overwhelming recovery of forest from disturbances in Asia","authors":"Yiying Zhu , Hesong Wang , Anzhi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100511","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100511","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forest ecosystems play key roles in mitigating human-induced climate change through enhanced carbon uptake; however, frequently occurring climate extremes and human activities have considerably threatened the stability of forests. At the same time, detailed accounts of disturbances and forest responses are not yet well quantified in Asia. This study employed the Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend method—an abrupt-change detection method—to analyze the Enhanced Vegetation Index time series in East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. This approach allowed us to detect forest disturbance and quantify the resilience after disturbance. Results showed that 20 % of forests experienced disturbance with an increasing trend from 2000 to 2022, and Southeast Asian countries were more severely affected by disturbances. Specifically, 95 % of forests had robust resilience and could recover from disturbance within a few decades. The resilience of forests suffering from greater magnitude of disturbance tended to be stronger than forests with lower disturbance magnitude. In summary, this study investigated the resilience of forests across the low and middle latitudes of Asia over the past two decades. The authors found that most forests exhibited good resilience after disturbance and about two-thirds had recovered to a better state in 2022. The findings of this study underscore the complex relationship between disturbance and resilience, contributing to comprehension of forest resilience through satellite remote sensing.</div><div>摘要</div><div>目前对于亚洲森林在应对气候变化和人类活动干扰方面的研究相对较少. 本研究利用BFAST突变检测方法, 分析了东亚, 南亚和东南亚的增强植被指数 (EVI) 长时间序列中检测到的森林扰动和恢复情况. 结果显示, 2000年至2022年期间, 约20%的森林经历了扰动, 且受到扰动的森林面积呈增加趋势, 东南亚国家受扰动的影响更为严重. 在扰动事件发生后, 95%的森林具有较好的恢复能力, 能够在受到扰动后的一段时间后恢复过来, 其中约有三分之二的森林在2022年时已经恢复到了较扰动前更好的状态.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 1","pages":"Article 100511"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140764371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the 2014/15 marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean 海洋数据同化对东北太平洋 2014/15 年海洋热浪季节性预报的影响

IF 2.3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100498

Tiantian Tang, Jiaying He, Huihang Sun, Jingjia Luo

{"title":"Impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the 2014/15 marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean","authors":"Tiantian Tang, Jiaying He, Huihang Sun, Jingjia Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100498","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100498","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A remarkable marine heatwave, known as the “Blob”, occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016, which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m. This study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science (NUIST-CFS 1.0) to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine heatwave. The sea surface temperature (SST) nudging scheme assimilates SST only, while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep ocean. The latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies, especially at the depth of 100–300 m (the lower layer), outperforming the SST nudging scheme. It excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer, contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the Blob. These improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data, which are important in predicting the upper-ocean conditions. The results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.</div><div>摘要</div><div>2013年底至2016年初, 东北太平洋上发生了历史上罕见的极端海洋热浪事件 (称为“Blob”事件) , 形成了从海表延伸至海洋深处300m的强烈且持续的海温暖异常. 本文利用南京信息工程大学全球气候预测系统1.0版本 (NUIST-CFS 1.0) , 采用两种海洋资料同化方案, 探究海洋资料同化差异对这一极端海洋热浪事件季节预测的影响. 本文采用的一种同化方案为仅同化海表面温度 (Surface sea temperature, SST) 的SST-nudging方案, 而另一种方案为在前一种方案的基础上加入确定性集合卡尔曼滤波 (Deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter, DEnKF) , 同化更多海洋观测数据的EnKF方案. 主要结论为, 利用EnKF方案可显著提高对“Blob”期间次表层温度异常预测的准确性, 这主要源于EnKF方案在预测次表层的水平和垂直热传输方面表现出色. 该研究有助于更好地理解海洋热浪事件潜在物理机制及其季节预测水平.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 1","pages":"Article 100498"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140771707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impacts of the annual cycle of background SST in the tropical Pacific on the phase and amplitude of ENSO 热带太平洋背景海温年周期对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动相位和振幅的影响

IF 2.3 4区地球科学

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100496

Song Jiang , Congwen Zhu , Ning Jiang

{"title":"Impacts of the annual cycle of background SST in the tropical Pacific on the phase and amplitude of ENSO","authors":"Song Jiang , Congwen Zhu , Ning Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100496","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100496","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode, which explains 83.4% total variance, and serves as a background of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of ENSO. Based on data during 1982–2022, results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback, in which the positive (negative) phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño (La Niña) in boreal winter via an earlier (delayed) seasonal cycle transition and larger (smaller) annual mean. The magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than ±0.3℃, regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity analysis. Results reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO, which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.</div><div>摘要</div><div>基于1982–2022年资料分析, 本文发现, 热带太平洋海温年循环的主导模态为反对称模式, 是ENSO发展的背景场. 然而, 其对ENSO相位和振幅的异常影响尚未可知. 反对称模态异常可以通过Bjerknes反馈影响ENSO的年际变化, 其正 (负) 异常可以通过更早 (更晚) 的季节循环转变时间和更大 (更小) 的年平均值增强冬季El Niño (La Niña) 的强度. 根据随机敏感性实验分析, 与反对称模态变化有关的赤道中东太平洋海温异常可达±0.3℃以上. 研究结果为背景海温年循环对ENSO的影响提供了新的见解, 这可能对ENSO的预测具有重要意义.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 1","pages":"Article 100496"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140781271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0