基于cma - tram和LICOM的区域海-气耦合模式:南海北部热带气旋大风预报的初步结果

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Ling Huang , Chunxia Liu , Yongqiang Yu , Liwei Zou
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文比较分析了高分辨率区域海洋-大气耦合模式在预测南海北部热带气旋大风方面的性能。耦合系统的大气和海洋部分分别由中国气象局南海热带区域大气模式(CMA-TRAMS)和 LASG/IAP 气候系统海洋模式(LICOM)表示。这两部分之间的动量、热量和淡水通量交换采用了海洋大气海冰土壤 3 版(OASIS3)软件。对耦合模式三天内预测的五次热带气旋大风进行了评估。初步研究结果表明,与预测的热带气旋强度相比,预测的热带气旋路径对海洋影响的敏感性较低。通过与海洋模式的耦合,在预测地面热气旋大风方面取得了显著的改进。这种改进归因于较暖的海洋对热气旋增强的影响,抵消了冷醒的冷却效应。总之,耦合增强了模式对热带气旋大风的预测能力。本文摘要对一个具有我国自主知识产权的高分辨率区域海气耦合模式在南海北部台风大风预报性能进行对比分析。该耦合模式的大气和海洋部分分别为中国气象局南海台风模式 (cma-trams) 和中国科学院大气物理研究所的海洋模式 (licom), 并用oasis耦合器实现海气界面动量, 热量和淡水通量的交换.本文对海气耦合模式预报 5 个台风的 24, 48 和 72 小时大风的性能进行了检验评估。初步结果表明,预报的台风路径对海洋影响的敏感性低于台风强度。耦合模式使预报台风大风的准确性得到显著提高, 这一改进归结于海气耦合模式更为准确的海表温度对台风增强的影响, 从而抵消了冷尾流的降温效应。总而言之, 耦合模式增强了模式对台风大风的预报能力。关于海气耦合模式在其他热带天气中的预报能力评估将在未来工作中展示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

A regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model using CMA-TRAMS and LICOM: Preliminary results for tropical cyclone gale prediction over the northern South China Sea

A regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model using CMA-TRAMS and LICOM: Preliminary results for tropical cyclone gale prediction over the northern South China Sea
This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone (TC) gales over the northern South China Sea. The atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled system are represented by the China Meteorological Administration's Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS) and the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model (LICOM), respectively. The Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil VersionH 3 (OASIS3) software has been utilized for the exchange of momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes between these two components. An assessment of the coupled model's three-day predictions for five TCs’ gales was conducted. Preliminary findings indicate that the predicted TC tracks show less sensitivity to oceanic influences than the predicted TC intensities. Significant improvement in predicting the surface TC gales has been achieved through coupling the ocean model. This improvement is attributed to the impact of the warmer ocean's effect on TC intensification, counteracting the cooling effect of the cold wake. In summary, coupling has enhanced the model's predictive capabilities for TC gales. A detailed assessment of the coupled model's performance in predicting other tropical weather phenomena is forthcoming.
摘要
本文对一个具有我国自主知识产权的高分辨率区域海气耦合模式在南海北部台风大风预报性能进行对比分析. 该耦合模式的大气和海洋部分分别为中国气象局南海台风模式 (CMA-TRAMS) 和中国科学院大气物理研究所的海洋模式 (LICOM), 并用OASIS耦合器实现海气界面动量, 热量和淡水通量的交换. 本文对海气耦合模式预报5个台风的24, 48和72小时大风的性能进行了检验评估. 初步结果表明, 预报的台风路径对海洋影响的敏感性低于台风强度. 耦合模式使预报台风大风的准确性得到显著提高, 这一改进归结于海气耦合模式更为准确的海表温度对台风增强的影响, 从而抵消了冷尾流的降温效应. 总而言之, 耦合模式增强了模式对台风大风的预报能力. 关于海气耦合模式在其他热带天气中的预报能力评估将在未来工作中展示.
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来源期刊
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
8.70%
发文量
925
审稿时长
12 weeks
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