Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters最新文献

{"title":"The extreme windstorm of April 2025 in northern and central-eastern China: Historical ranking and synoptic origins","authors":"Shenming Fu ,&nbsp;Tingting Huang ,&nbsp;Bo Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao Li ,&nbsp;Nan Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhongcan Chen ,&nbsp;Jingxue Wang ,&nbsp;You Dong ,&nbsp;Jianhua Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In mid-April 2025, northern and central-eastern China experienced a catastrophic compound disaster marked by Beaufort 8 or greater wind gusts affecting ∼3.5 × 10⁶ km², exposing ∼610 million residents to extreme conditions, with Typhoon-equivalent Beaufort 12 gusts battering Beijing’s Yanshan Mountains and Beaufort 14–15 winds devastating Inner Mongolia. This unprecedented event surpassed historical extremes at 64 weather stations, impacting 996 monitoring sites with winds exceeding the 99th percentile, including 478 stations recording historic top-three maxima. Concurrently, sandstorms engulfed ∼4.3 × 10⁶ km², reaching 18°N, while Hulunbuir faced a 1.5-m snowpack—a 30-year April record. Cascading infrastructure failures resulted in 1884 uprooted trees, approximately ¥16.6 million in urban damages (in Beijing), and the collapse of utility-scale photovoltaic systems across northern China and the Huang-Huai region, exacerbating the multi-faceted crisis. A brief analysis indicates the event was primarily driven by a vertically coupled cyclone system featuring a cold vortex at the middle and upper troposphere dynamically aligned with a lower-level cyclone/mesoscale vortex. The intense, deeply coupled cyclone system sustained the wind intensification primarily through its enhanced pressure gradient force and subsidence-induced downward transport of kinetic energy (KE) behind the cyclone’s core. Clarifying the controlling synoptic-scale weather systems and dominant physical mechanisms governing such extreme wind generation is critical for refining predictive models of these high-impact events while advancing the understanding of dynamic interactions within extreme wind regimes.</div><div>摘要</div><div>2025年4月中旬, 中国北部和中东部地区遭遇由8级以上阵风引发的复合型灾害, 影响范围约3.5 × 10⁶平方公里, 波及约6.1亿人口. 北京燕山山脉出现12级 (台风级) 阵风, 内蒙古局部地区风力达14–15级. 此次事件在64个气象站突破历史极值, 996个监测站点风速超过第99百分位 (478个站点创观测史前三极值) . 伴随沙尘暴影响范围达4.3 × 10⁶平方公里, 南扩至18°N; 呼伦贝尔出现1.5米积雪, 为30年来4月最深纪录. 灾害导致1884株树木倒伏, 北京城市设施损失约1660万元, 并造成华北, 黄淮地区光伏系统大面积损毁. 研究表明, 该事件由垂直耦合气旋系统驱动, 中高层冷涡与低层气旋/中尺度涡旋动力耦合, 通过增强气压梯度及下沉动能传输维持强风. 阐明此类极端风的天气系统及物理机制, 对改进预测模型及深化风场动力学认知具有重要意义.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 6","pages":"Article 100672"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144903232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synoptic background conditions and moisture transport for producing the extreme heavy rainfall event in Valencia in 2024","authors":"Tingting Huang ,&nbsp;Shenming Fu ,&nbsp;Xiao Li ,&nbsp;You Dong ,&nbsp;Yuanchun Zhang ,&nbsp;Jianhua Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100666","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100666","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>From 26 October to 2 November 2024, Spain experienced a record-breaking rainfall event, with the most intense episode appearing in Valencia Province. During the event, Turis station recorded a historic 24-hour precipitation of 710.8 mm, exceeding the national annual average. This resulting flood led to widespread disruption and significant societal impacts. Synoptic analyses reveal that the event was dominated by a deep cut-off low extending through the entire troposphere and persisting for approximately 186 h. Background conditions were characterized by upper-level divergence, mid-tropospheric warm advection, and a strong southeasterly low-level jet, which promoted vertical motion and sustained moisture transport. The steep, funnel-shaped terrain along the eastern Iberian coast further triggered and enhanced the local convection. A 10-day backward Lagrangian moisture tracing using the HYSPLIT model identified the Mediterranean Sea as the primary moisture source (78.1 %), followed by northwestern Africa (8.5 %) and central-eastern Europe/the Black Sea (6.2 %). Low-level moisture transport was mainly driven by the cut-off low and a persistent Mediterranean high, while mid- to upper-level trajectories were associated with a preceding low-pressure system over the Mediterranean and the subtropical Atlantic high. These systems acted in sequence to relay moisture toward the Valencia region, and under the influence of the strongly rotating and convergent cut-off low—along with terrain-induced lifting—this moisture was rapidly uplifted, ultimately triggering the extreme rainfall event.</div><div>摘要</div><div>2024年10月26日至11月2日, 西班牙瓦伦西亚省遭遇罕见极端降雨, Turis站24小时降水量达710.8毫米, 引发严重洪涝灾害. 此次事件由持续186小时的深厚切断低压主导, 在高层辐散, 中层暖平流与低空东南急流共同作用下形成强垂直运动, 东海岸漏斗地形进一步增强对流. HYSPLIT后向追踪显示, 水汽主要来自地中海 (贡献率78.1 %), 其次为非洲西北部 (8.5 %) 和欧洲中东部/黑海 (6.2 %). 水汽由多个天气系统接力输送至瓦伦西亚, 最终在切断低压旋转辐合和地形抬升作用下, 引发此次破纪录降雨事件.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 6","pages":"Article 100666"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144903231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State of the climate over the Three Gorges Region of the Yangtze River basin in 2024","authors":"Hongling Zeng,&nbsp;Xianyan Chen,&nbsp;Yundi Jiang,&nbsp;Xukai Zou,&nbsp;Tong Cui,&nbsp;Qiang Zhang,&nbsp;Linhai Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100664","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100664","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Three Gorges Region (TGR) of the Yangtze River basin exhibited warm and dry climatic characteristics in 2024. The annual mean temperature in the TGR was 18.6 °C, which was 1.2 °C above normal and marked the highest level since 1961. All four seasons were warmer than normal, with spring and autumn both recording their highest temperatures since 1961. Additionally, the TGR recorded 57.2 high-temperature days in 2024, reaching a historic high since 1961 and exceeding the previous record set in 2022 by 2.4 days. Annual rainfall was 11.2 % below normal, with spring, summer, and autumn all being drier than normal. However, the number of heavy rain days was slightly higher than normal. The annual mean wind speed in the TGR ranked as the second-highest since 1961, only slightly lower than in 2022. The annual mean relative humidity was below normal and the number of fog days across large areas of the TGR decreased compared to 2023. In 2024, the TGR experienced extreme high-temperature events characterized by exceptional intensity and prolonged duration, accompanied by generally severe meteorological drought conditions. During the year, the TGR also experienced frequent and intense cooling events, an early onset of heavy rainfall (including severe convective weather), and exceptionally extreme rainstorm events.</div><div>摘要</div><div>2024年长江三峡地区的气候呈暖干特征, 年平均气温创下新的纪录, 达到18.6 °C, 较常年偏高1.2 °C. 四季气温均偏高, 其中春秋季平均气温均为1961年以来历史同期最高. 高温日数为57.2天, 也为1961年以来最多. 年降水量较常年偏少11.2 %, 春, 夏, 秋三季降水均偏少, 但暴雨日数较常年略偏多. 年平均风速为1961年以来第二大, 仅略低于2022年. 年平均相对湿度偏小, 大部地区雾日数较2023年有所减少. 2024年, 三峡地区经历极端高温事件, 高温强度强, 持续时间长, 气象干旱总体偏重; 强降温频次多, 强度强; 强降水 (强对流) 天气过程偏早, 暴雨极端性强.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 5","pages":"Article 100664"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144696952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State of China’s climate in 2024","authors":"Yundi Jiang,&nbsp;Lin Zhao,&nbsp;Xiucang Li,&nbsp;Xianyan Chen,&nbsp;Xukai Zou,&nbsp;Yiran Wang,&nbsp;Hongling Zeng,&nbsp;Tong Cui,&nbsp;Hailing Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100661","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100661","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The year 2024 witnessed remarkable climatic anomalies across China, characterized by pronounced warm and wet conditions. The annual mean temperature soared to a record high since 1951, with seasonal temperatures in spring, summer, and autumn all exceeding historical extremes. Meanwhile, the annual precipitation ranked as the fourth highest on record, with all four seasons experiencing above-average rainfall. Notably, the Yangtze River Basin and Jiangnan region encountered their most intense precipitation event since 1961. Extreme weather events were particularly striking: An unusually early and severe heatwave swept through central and eastern China, becoming the second most intense high-temperature event in recorded history. Autumn typhoon activity also displayed exceptional intensity, with Typhoon Yagi triggering significant impacts in Hainan, Guangdong, and Guangxi. Although drought conditions were generally mild overall, notable seasonal and regional disparities emerged, especially in the winter–spring droughts affecting southwestern China. Conversely, cold outbreaks occurred more frequently than usual, and convective weather events exhibited heightened activity. Moreover, dust storm activity remained relatively limited.</div><div>摘要</div><div>2024年中国气候异常特征显著, 呈现突出的暖湿气候态势. 全国平均气温创1951年以来历史新高, 春, 夏, 秋三季气温均为历史最高; 年降水量位列历史第四高位, 四季降水均偏多, 其中长江流域和江南地区降水量更创1961年以来最强纪录, 极端天气事件尤为突出: 中东部地区遭遇历史罕见的早发强高温天气, 高温强度居历史第二; 秋季台风活动异常活跃, 台风\"摩羯\"给海南, 广东, 广西带来显著影响. 尽管全年干旱总体偏轻, 但季节性和区域性差异明显, 西南地区冬春连旱尤为显著. 与此同时, 冷空气过程较常年偏多, 强对流天气呈现高发态势, 而沙尘天气则相对偏少.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 5","pages":"Article 100661"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144696951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Compound extreme events and health risks in China: A review","authors":"Haosu Tang ,&nbsp;Gang Huang ,&nbsp;Kaiming Hu ,&nbsp;Jun Wang ,&nbsp;Cunrui Huang ,&nbsp;Xianke Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Against the backdrop of global warming, China has been facing increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather and climate events, with a prominent risk of compound extreme events induced by interactions among multiple climate drivers and/or hazards. The present study first reviews the definition and classification of compound extreme events in China. Then, it summarizes research progress on the evolutionary characteristics, formation mechanisms, and future projections of different types of compound extreme events. The potential risks and possible impact pathways of three specific event types—namely, continuous day–night hot extremes, temperature–humidity compound events, and high-temperature–ozone compound events—on the health of the Chinese population are then explored. Finally, a framework for assessing the hazard risk of compound extreme events is constructed, accompanied by response strategies based on carbon neutrality targets. Building on existing research achievements, five future research directions are proposed: (1) identifying the risk chains of compound events; (2) addressing the constraints of observational records and coupled model performances; (3) attributing and understanding the drivers of compound extreme events; (4) finding optimal pathways for carbon reduction and air quality improvement; and (5) promoting inter-disciplinary, multi-regional, and cross-sectoral collaboration. Strengthening research in these directions will deepen our understanding of compound extreme events and provide technological support for climate change adaptation and health risk responses in China.</div><div>摘要</div><div>在全球变暖的背景下, 中国面临着日益频繁和严峻的极端天气气候事件, 其中以多种气候驱动因子和/或灾害相互作用而形成的复合型极端事件风险尤为突出. 本文首先回顾了中国区域复合型极端事件的定义与分型; 然后综述了不同类型复合型极端事件的演变特征, 形成机制以及未来预估等方面的研究进展; 随后, 探讨了日夜持续型极端高温事件, 温湿复合事件以及高温–臭氧复合事件等三类事件对我国人群健康的潜在风险及可能的影响途径; 最后, 阐述了复合型极端事件灾害风险评估框架, 并在此基础上提出了基于碳中和目标的应对策略. 在总结既有研究成果的基础上, 提出了五个未来亟需关注的研究方向: (1)复合事件灾害风险链的识别问题; (2)观测资料和耦合模式性能的制约问题; (3)复合型极端事件的归因与成因问题; (4)碳减排与空气质量改善的最优路径问题; (5)多学科, 多区域, 多部门的合作问题. 加强上述方向的研究有助于深化对复合型极端事件的理解, 并为我国气候变化适应和健康风险应对提供科技支撑.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 5","pages":"Article 100647"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144696949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The strongest early-summer drought–flood abrupt alternation event over the Huang–Huai–Hai River Basin in 2024 since the 1980s: Perspective of anomalous subseasonal circulation evolution","authors":"Zhiheng Chen,&nbsp;Zhihai Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the 21st century, the Huang–Huai–Hai River Basin (HHHRB) in China has experienced increased frequency and severity of drought–flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events during early summer, characterized by droughts in June followed by floods in July. The 2024 event was the most severe since 1981. This study demonstrates that such compound extreme events are closely linked to anomalous subseasonal evolution of large-scale atmospheric circulation. During the drought phase, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EAJ) shifts southward, and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) exhibits anomalous strengthening with its western ridge line displaced southward. The flood phase is characterized by acceleration of the EAJ, westward extension of the WPSH, and enhanced southwestern moisture transport from the western Pacific. Beyond these typical features, the 2024 early summer circulation exhibited unique characteristics: Anomalous northeastward intensification of the WPSH facilitated merged moisture influx from both the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific along the southeast pathway into the HHHRB in July, resulting in the highest net moisture inflow at the southern boundary of the HHHRB since 1981. The synergistic effects of multiple factors primarily explain the exceptionally intense DFAA event in 2024.</div><div>摘要</div><div>21世纪以来, 中国黄淮海地区初夏旱涝急转事件 (6月旱–7月涝) 呈频次增多, 强度增强趋势, 2024年事件为1981年以来最强. 研究表明, 此类复合极端事件与大尺度环流的季节内异常演变密切相关, 其中旱期表现为东亚副热带西风急流的位置偏南, 西太副高的强度偏强但西段脊线偏南; 涝期表现为东亚副热带西风急流增速, 西太副高西伸脊点偏西与西南路径西太水汽的增多. 除上述典型特征外, 2024年初夏的环流演变兼具特殊性——初夏西太副高向东北方向的异常加强, 导致7月印度洋水汽和东南路径的西太水汽合并汇入黄淮海地区, 造成其南边界水汽净流入量达1981年以来峰值. 以上多要素协同是2024年黄淮海地区旱涝急转事件强度异常偏强的重要原因.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 5","pages":"Article 100648"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144696950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends and characteristics of global CH4 emissions: Insights from UNFCCC greenhouse gas inventories","authors":"Dong Gao ,&nbsp;Wenkang Gao ,&nbsp;Zhanyun Ma ,&nbsp;Lingyun Zhu ,&nbsp;Jiajing Tian ,&nbsp;Shule Liu ,&nbsp;Yangchun Yu ,&nbsp;Guozhong Zhang ,&nbsp;Qingxian Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100637","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100637","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The trends and characteristics of global CH₄ emissions were analyzed using greenhouse gas data reported by both Annex I and non-Annex I countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) from 1990 to 2021. The results show the following: (1) In 2021, the cumulative CH₄ emissions from the 42 nations listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC amounted to 1871521.79 kt CO₂ eq. The top 10 countries account for 82.0 % of the total CH₄ emissions. (2) Most Annex I countries showed a gradual decline in CH₄ emissions over the period. In contrast, emissions from non-Annex I countries have increased year by year. Notably, CH₄ emissions in the United States, the European Union, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine decreased by 14.0 %, 37.4 %, 24.0 %, and 60.9 %, respectively. (3) In 2020, the CH₄ emissions of the agriculture, energy, waste treatment and LULUCF (land use, land-use change and forestry) sectors in Annex I countries were 72240.43, 63863.51, 41573.08, and 889019 million tons of CO₂ eq, accounting for 38.6 %, 34.1 %, 22.2 %, and 4.8 %, respectively. Among non-Annex I countries, the main CH₄ sources vary by country. In China and Mexico, energy and agriculture were the largest contributors, accounting for 44.8 % and 40.2 % in China, and 34.4 % and 43.3 % in Mexico, respectively. In India, Brazil, Nigeria, Argentina, and Vietnam, agriculture dominated, contributing 73.8 %, 75.8 %, 59.7 %, 60.3 %, and 58.5 % of total emissions, respectively. Indonesia was an exception, with waste treatment being the primary source, accounting for 64.8 % of its total CH₄ emissions.</div><div>摘要</div><div>基于《联合国气候变化框架公约》 (UNFCCC) 附件一国家提交的 1990 年至最新清单年份 (2021 年) 温室气体排放数据, 探讨了附件一和非附件一国家排放现状, 演变趋势和关键排放源. 结果表明: 2021年UNFCCC附件一中42个国家CH₄总排放量为1871521.79 kt CO₂当量. 排在前10位的国家占CH₄总排放量的82.0 %. (2)大多数附件一国家的CH₄排放量呈逐渐下降趋势, 非附件一国家的CH₄排放量呈逐年增加趋势, 其中最大的排放源的美国, 欧盟(公约), 俄罗斯联邦和乌克兰排放量分别下降了13.96 %, 37.44 %, 24.01 %和60.89 %. 乌克兰, 英国, 意大利和罗马尼亚与1990年相比, 2021年的排放量减少了60 %以上. (3) 2020年, 附件一国家农业, 能源, 废物处理和LULUCF行业的CH₄排放量分别为72240.43, 63863.51, 41573.08和889.19亿吨CO₂当量, 占比分别为38.60 %, 34.11 %, 22.21 %和4.75 %. 在UNFCCC非附件一国家中, 能源和农业部门是中国和墨西哥最主要的CH₄排放源, 分别占中国总排放量的44.77 %和40.23 %, 占墨西哥总排放量的34.44 %和43.29 %. 在印度, 巴西, 尼日利亚, 阿根廷和越南, 农业部门是最主要的排放源, 分别占总排放量的73.75 %, 75.78 %, 59.66 %, 60.29 %和58.47 %. 印度尼西亚以废物处理部门为主, 占总排放量的64.79 %.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 5","pages":"Article 100637"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144696948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bias characteristics of cloud diurnal variation in the FGOALS-f3-L model","authors":"Hongtao Yang ,&nbsp;Guoxing Chen ,&nbsp;Qing Bao ,&nbsp;Bian He","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100636","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100636","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cloud diurnal variation is crucial for regulating cloud radiative effects and atmospheric dynamics. However, it is often overlooked in the evaluation and development of climate models. Thus, this study aims to investigate the daily mean (CFR) and diurnal variation (CDV) of cloud fraction across high-, middle-, low-level, and total clouds in the FGOALS-f3-L general circulation model. The bias of total CDV is decomposed into the model biases in CFRs and CDVs of clouds at all three levels. Results indicate that the model generally underestimates low-level cloud fraction during the daytime and high-/middle-level cloud fraction at nighttime. The simulation biases of low clouds, especially their CDV biases, dominate the bias of total CDV. Compensation effects exist among the bias decompositions, where the negative contributions of underestimated daytime low-level cloud fraction are partially offset by the opposing contributions from biases in high-/middle-level clouds. Meanwhile, the bias contributions have notable land–ocean differences and region-dependent characteristics, consistent with the model biases in these variables. Additionally, the study estimates the influences of CFR and CDV biases on the bias of shortwave cloud radiative effects. It reveals that the impacts of CDV biases can reach half of those from CFR biases, highlighting the importance of accurate CDV representation in climate models.</div><div>摘要</div><div>云量日变化可以调节云辐射效应, 影响大气动力过程, 但在气候模式评估中常被忽视. 本研究评估了FGOALS-f3-L模式中高, 中, 低云及总云云量的日均值和日变化特征. 结果表明, 模式普遍低估白天低云云量和夜间中, 高云云量. 低云云量日变化误差主导总云云量日变化误差. 其中, 低云误差造成的负值贡献被中, 高云误差的正值贡献部分抵消. 误差贡献呈现显著的海陆和区域差异, 与相应云量的模式误差一致. 同时, 云量日变化误差对短波云辐射效应误差的影响可达日均云量影响的一半, 突显了在模式中准确表征云量日变化的重要性.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 6","pages":"Article 100636"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144903214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Historical and future climate changes impact global solar photovoltaic power potential: Role of key meteorological variables","authors":"Chang Liu,&nbsp;Lei Chen,&nbsp;Ke Li,&nbsp;Xipeng Jin,&nbsp;Xi Chen,&nbsp;Wenhao Qiao,&nbsp;Hong Liao","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Renewable energy, especially solar power, is vital for mitigating global warming, while climate change also impacts solar photovoltaic potential (PVpot). This study analyzes historical (1985–2014) and future (2015–2100) climate effects on PVpot, and quantifies contributions from changed radiation, temperature, and wind speed. Historically, global PVpot increased by 0.42 ‰, with notable rises in eastern China (+7.1 ‰) and southern Europe (+3.5 ‰). By the end of the century, increased radiation-induced PVpot (+1.27 ‰) offsets temperature-induced PVpot loss (−0.54 ‰) under SSP1-2.6, yielding a net PVpot increase (+0.74 ‰). Under SSP2-4.5, the temperature-induced PVpot decline (−1.50 ‰) drives the final PVpot reduction (−1.15 ‰). Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, combined radiation-induced (−1.94 ‰ and −1.99 ‰) and temperature-induced PVpot changes (−2.67 ‰ and −3.41 ‰) result in significant PVpot declines (−4.57 ‰ and −5.31 ‰). Regional analysis reveals that eastern China (+0.7‰ to +8.6 ‰), southern Europe (+0.3 ‰ to +2.5 ‰), and Northwest South America (+0.6 ‰ to +2.1 ‰) retain positive changes in future PVpot across all climate scenarios, which may be due to reduced aerosols and cloud cover, suggesting these areas can remain suitable for photovoltaic installations despite climate changes. In contrast, temperature-driven PVpot declines over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (−9.1 ‰ to −4.3 ‰) and northern Africa (−9.3 ‰ to −4.9 ‰) under future high-emission scenarios indicate that these historically advantageous regions will become less suitable for solar energy deployment. The findings underscore that climate changes driven by sustainable development pathways will generate more PVpot in the future for better global warming mitigation.</div><div>摘要</div><div>可再生能源, 特别是太阳能发电对于减缓全球变暖至关重要, 但气候变化会影响太阳能光伏潜力 (PVpot) . 本研究分析了历史 (1985–2014年) 和未来 (2015–2100年) 气候对PVpot的影响, 量化了辐射, 温度和风速的贡献. 从历史上看, 全球PVpot增加了0.42 ‰, 其中中国东部 (+7.1 ‰) 和南欧 (+3.5 ‰) 的增长显著. 到本世纪末, 在SSP1-2.6下, 辐射引起的PVpot增加 (+1.27 ‰) 抵消了温度引起的PVpot损失 (−0.54 ‰) , 从而PVpot增加 (+0.74 ‰). 在SSP2-4.5下, 温度引起的PVpot下降 (−1.50 ‰) 导致最终PVpot减少 (−1.15 ‰) . 在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5中, 辐射引起的 (−1.94 ‰和−1.99 ‰) 和温度引起的PVpot变化 (−2.67 ‰和−3.41 ‰) 共同导致PVpot显著下降 (−4.57 ‰和−5.31 ‰) . 区域分析表明, 中国东部 (+0.7 ‰∼+8.6 ‰) , 南欧 (+0.3 ‰∼+2.5 ‰) 和南美洲西北部 (+0.6 ‰∼+2.1 ‰) 在所有气候情景下的PVpot都保持正变化, 这可能是由于气溶胶和云量减少, 这表明尽管未来气候变化, 这些地区仍然适合安装光伏设备. 相比之下, 在高排放情景下, 青藏高原 (−9.1 ‰∼−4.3 ‰) 和北非 (−9.3‰∼−4.9 ‰) 的光伏发电量因温度升高而下降, 这些历史上有利的地区将不再适合部署太阳能. 本研究结果强调, 可持续发展道路推动的气候变化将在未来产生更多的光伏发电量, 从而更好地减缓全球变暖.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 6","pages":"Article 100619"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144903213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A reversal of upper-air wind speed in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Haojie Wu ,&nbsp;Haipeng Yu ,&nbsp;Xin Wang ,&nbsp;Shanling Cheng ,&nbsp;Yunsai Zhu ,&nbsp;Hongyu Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100616","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100616","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous studies have indicated a global reversal of near-surface wind speeds from a declining trend to an increasing trend around 2010; however, it remains unclear whether upper-air wind speeds exhibit a similar reversal. This study evaluates reanalysis products using surface and radiosonde observations to analyze upper-air wind speed variations in the Northern Hemisphere, focusing on their seasonal and latitudinal differences. Results demonstrate that JRA-55 effectively captures wind speed variations in the Northern Hemisphere. Notably, upper-air wind speeds over land experienced a reversal in winter 2010 with significant latitudinal differences. The trend reversal of upper wind speed between the midlatitudes and subtropics presents a dipole pattern. From 1990 to 2010, upper-air wind speeds in the midlatitudes (40°–70°N) significantly declined, while the subtropical zone (20°–40°N) displayed an opposite trend. However, during 2010–2020, wind speeds in the midlatitudes shifted to a significant positive trend, whereas the subtropics experienced a significant negative trend. The variations in Northern Hemisphere winter wind speeds can be attributed to changes in low-level baroclinicity driven by tropical diabatic heating and midlatitude transient eddy feedback. Enhanced diabatic heating and weakened eddy feedback during 1990–2010 contributed to reduced wind speeds in the midlatitudes and increased speeds in the subtropics, while reduced diabatic heating and strengthened eddy feedback during 2010–2020 resulted in increased wind speeds in the midlatitudes and decreased speeds in the subtropics. The reversal of upper-air wind speeds could affect surface wind speeds by downward momentum transfer, which could contribute to the reversal of surface wind speeds.</div><div>摘要</div><div>以往研究表明, 全球近地面风速已从下降趋势转为上升趋势; 然而目前尚不清楚高空风速是否也出现了类似的逆转. 本研究发现北半球冬季高空风速在2010年前后也存在逆转现象, 且该现象在中纬度和副热带之间形成了偶极子模态. 从1990年到2010年, 中纬度地区的高空风速显著减弱, 而副热带地区则表现为增强趋势; 在2010–2020年期间, 风速呈现出相反的趋势. 进一步分析表明, 这一逆转现象与热带非绝热加热和中纬度瞬变涡旋反馈所驱动的低层斜压性异常密切相关. 值得注意的是, 高空风速的逆转可能通过动量下传机制影响近地面风速, 这为解释同期地面风速的趋势逆转提供了参考依据.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 6","pages":"Article 100616"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144903367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}