Compound extreme events and health risks in China: A review

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global warming, China has been facing increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather and climate events, with a prominent risk of compound extreme events induced by interactions among multiple climate drivers and/or hazards. The present study first reviews the definition and classification of compound extreme events in China. Then, it summarizes research progress on the evolutionary characteristics, formation mechanisms, and future projections of different types of compound extreme events. The potential risks and possible impact pathways of three specific event types—namely, continuous day–night hot extremes, temperature–humidity compound events, and high-temperature–ozone compound events—on the health of the Chinese population are then explored. Finally, a framework for assessing the hazard risk of compound extreme events is constructed, accompanied by response strategies based on carbon neutrality targets. Building on existing research achievements, five future research directions are proposed: (1) identifying the risk chains of compound events; (2) addressing the constraints of observational records and coupled model performances; (3) attributing and understanding the drivers of compound extreme events; (4) finding optimal pathways for carbon reduction and air quality improvement; and (5) promoting inter-disciplinary, multi-regional, and cross-sectoral collaboration. Strengthening research in these directions will deepen our understanding of compound extreme events and provide technological support for climate change adaptation and health risk responses in China.

摘要

在全球变暖的背景下, 中国面临着日益频繁和严峻的极端天气气候事件, 其中以多种气候驱动因子和/或灾害相互作用而形成的复合型极端事件风险尤为突出. 本文首先回顾了中国区域复合型极端事件的定义与分型; 然后综述了不同类型复合型极端事件的演变特征, 形成机制以及未来预估等方面的研究进展; 随后, 探讨了日夜持续型极端高温事件, 温湿复合事件以及高温–臭氧复合事件等三类事件对我国人群健康的潜在风险及可能的影响途径; 最后, 阐述了复合型极端事件灾害风险评估框架, 并在此基础上提出了基于碳中和目标的应对策略. 在总结既有研究成果的基础上, 提出了五个未来亟需关注的研究方向: (1)复合事件灾害风险链的识别问题; (2)观测资料和耦合模式性能的制约问题; (3)复合型极端事件的归因与成因问题; (4)碳减排与空气质量改善的最优路径问题; (5)多学科, 多区域, 多部门的合作问题. 加强上述方向的研究有助于深化对复合型极端事件的理解, 并为我国气候变化适应和健康风险应对提供科技支撑.