Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters最新文献

{"title":"Prediction of the summertime Northwest Pacific subtropical high based on ConvLSTM","authors":"Fei Yang ,&nbsp;Jing Ma ,&nbsp;Hongxia Lan ,&nbsp;Bin Mu ,&nbsp;Shijin Yuan ,&nbsp;Jing-Jia Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH) significantly affects East Asian weather and climate, rendering the prediction of its intensity and location critically important. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the Convolutional Long and Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) model for predicting the summertime 500 hPa geopotential height and NWPSH intensity and area at a lead time of three months, and to compare it with the dynamical models of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System (NUIST-CFS1.0) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Version 2 (CanSIPSv2). The mean latitude-weighted RMSE (RMSE_w), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), and NWPSH indices are used as evaluation metrics. For both summer mean and monthly prediction, the ConvLSTM model outperforms the two dynamical models in terms of RMSE_w and ACC for the 500 hPa geopotential height over the western Pacific region. The correlation coefficients between the NWPSH intensity index predicted by the ConvLSTM model and the observations are higher than those obtained from the two dynamical models. Regarding the NWPSH area index, the ConvLSTM model shows more stable performance. Particularly in August, the improvement of the ConvLSTM model compared to the two dynamical models is more significant, indicating the robust capability in capturing late-summer circulation patterns. Therefore, the ConvLSTM model demonstrates significant potential for summer NWPSH prediction, offering a new perspective and approach for climate prediction in this region.</div><div>摘要</div><div>西北太平洋副热带高压 (NWPSH) 对东亚天气和气候具有重要影响, 其强度和位置的预测至关重要. 本研究旨在评估卷积长短期记忆 (ConvLSTM) 模型提前3个月对夏季500 hPa位势高度及NWPSH强度和面积的预测性能, 并将其与动力模式南京信息工程大学气候预测系统1.0版 (NUIST-CFS1.0) 和加拿大季节–年际预测系统第2版 (CanSIPSv2) 预测结果对比. 评估指标为纬度加权均方根误差 (RMSE_w) , 异常相关系数 (ACC) 和NWPSH指数. 在夏季平均和逐月预测中, ConvLSTM模型对西太平洋地区500 hPa位势高度的RMSEw和ACC预测技巧均优于动力模式. ConvLSTM模型预测的NWPSH强度指数与观测值的相关系数高于动力模式结果, 预测的NWPSH面积指数也表现出更稳定的性能. 与两个动力学模式相比, ConvLSTM模型在8月的改进更为显著, 表明其对夏季末期环流形势具有更强的捕捉能力. 因此, ConvLSTM模型在夏季NWPSH的预测中具有较好的应用潜力, 为该区域的气候预测提供了新的视角和方法.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 2","pages":"Article 100654"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145986726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring typhoon prediction and convective bursts through integration of a numerical model after vortex initialization with AI weather forecasting","authors":"Jinfeng Huang ,&nbsp;Shuai Yang ,&nbsp;Yuanfa Gong","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100651","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100651","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Typhoon Bebinca in 2024 experienced a nearshore outbreak (a rapid intensification (RI) near the coast), making accurate forecasting of unpredictable tracks and intensities highly challenging. The AI model is superior to the numerical model for typhoon track prediction but performs worse for intensity forecasting. Vortex initialization is an effective approach to further improve numerical prediction via cycle assimilation, accounting for multiple relocating TC centers and adjusting the typhoon initial structure. In addition, by integrating numerical runs with an AI weather model through real-time dynamic weight correction of the forecast, the predictive skill is further improved. For example, it can reduce the deviation of 72-h track forecasting by 25 % compared with the numerical model and decrease the intensity deviation by 2 % and 56 % relative to the numerical run and AI forecasts, respectively. On the basis of the best-performing forecasting, the inner-core convective burst (CB) characteristics are illuminated. The attributions of the nearshore outbreak and RI of Typhoon Bebinca are examined. From the viewpoint of bottom-up convection growth, the CB is associated with the energy supply from the high-boundary-layer CAPE, the following upward-developing secondary circulation, and accompanying latent heat release of hydrometeors. The contracted radius of maximum winds (RMW) and increased inertial stability within the inner core region effectively prevent the escape of the high-energy atmosphere and favor rapid intensification and maintenance of the offshore burst of a typhoon. The intensifying secondary circulation further promotes the primary circulation of the TC and RI processes through the gradient wind balance.</div><div>摘要</div><div>2024年强台风贝碧嘉近岸爆发快速增强, 预报极具挑战. 将数值预报和AI模型相结合, 并融入涡旋初始化循环同化预报技术, 以及动态权重释用预报技术等, 可在不同程度上提升台风路径和强度预报. 比如, 72h路径预报偏差较数值模式降低25%, 强度偏差较AI预报降低56%. 基于预报分析, 发现台风近岸爆发快速增强, 与内核对流爆发, 次级环流增强促进主环流发展, 边界层高CAPE, 深对流潜热加热持续供能, 内核惯性稳定度增加防止高能大气外逸等有关.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 2","pages":"Article 100651"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145986711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Surface flux–induced salinity change and its effects on ocean stratification in response to global warming","authors":"Hai Zhi ,&nbsp;Tianyi Ma ,&nbsp;Rong-Hua Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaokun Wang ,&nbsp;Minmin Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming induced by increased CO₂ has caused marked changes in the ocean. Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity, largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes. This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes. The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity (SSS) dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools, driven by surface flux perturbations. This results in an intensification of the “salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher” SSS pattern across the global ocean. The spatial pattern amplification (PA) of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5 %, with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA, accounting for 8.1 % of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control (piControl). Notably, the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water, with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m. This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature. In response to the flux perturbations, there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening. It is hypothesized that under global warming, an SSS amplification of 7.2 %/°C and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5 %/°C will occur in the global ocean. It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat, which provides positive feedback to future global warming.</div><div>摘要</div><div>由于二氧化碳 (CO₂) 增加导致的全球变暖已经对海洋产生了显著变化. 以往对海洋盐度变化响应于全球变暖的估计存在相当大的不确定性, 这主要归因于模式对表面通量的敏感性差异. 研究利用“通量异常强迫模式比较计划” (Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project) 的数据, 探讨全球变暖背景下海洋盐度变化如何响应表面通量的扰动. 结果表明, 在北大西洋和太平洋, 表面通量扰动导致了海表面盐度 (SSS) 偶极模态的出现. 使得全球海洋中“咸的变得更咸, 淡的变得更淡”的SSS分布模态的进一步增强. 其中, SSS的空间模式放大 (PA) 估计约为11.5 %. 其中表面水通量扰动是盐度PA 增强的最显著贡献者, 对比对照实验 (piControl) 开始后70年内总变化的8.1 %. 值得注意的是, 通量强迫导致上层海洋的盐度层结化加强, 显示出大部分海洋上层盐度降低, 上层400米处的等密度线呈现“碗”型状态. 稳定的层结抑制了盐度和温度的垂直混合. 作为对通量扰动的响应, 上层海洋淡化作用, 对全球变暖产生了强烈的正反馈. 研究表明, 在全球变暖背景下, 全球海洋的SSS将放大7.2 %/°C, 混合层深度的强度变化将放大12.5 %/°C. 这表明盐度效应可以使海洋更加稳定, 从而阻碍热量向下传输, 对未来的全球变暖提供正反馈.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":"Article 100635"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145610573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interannual modulation of summer precipitation over North China by the coupled tropical Pacific–Atlantic SST Dipole Mode","authors":"Yanjin Mao ,&nbsp;Xiaorui Niu ,&nbsp;Ping Li ,&nbsp;Xianchun Chen ,&nbsp;Libin Huang ,&nbsp;Xin Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using multi-source reanalysis data, this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific–Atlantic SST Dipole Mode (TPA-DM) and summer precipitation in North China (NCSP) on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979–2022. The results show that the TPA-DM, the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions, exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP. The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern, which initiates a Pacific–Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast. The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China, leading to below-normal rainfall. Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind–evaporation–SST–convection feedback.</div><div>摘要</div><div>利用多源再分析数据, 本文研究了1979–2022年期间热带太平洋–大西洋海温偶极子模态 (TPA-DM) 对中国华北地区夏季降水 (NCSP) 年际变化的影响. 结果表明, TPA-DM是热带太平洋和大西洋海温年际变率的主导模态, 与NCSP呈显著的负相关关系 (−0.52) . TPA-DM的正位相海温异常通过纬向环流在海洋性大陆引发异常下沉, 进而在东亚沿海激发出类似太平洋–日本型的波列, 导致华北地区水汽减少和辐合下沉, 从而造成降水异常偏少. 此外, 热带南大西洋的异常冷海温通过激发与风–蒸发–海温–对流反馈机制, 促使异常沃克环流的形成, 从而增强和维持了TPA-DM型海温的增强与维持.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":"Article 100634"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145610576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tropical cyclone secondary eyewall width modulation: Differential impacts of surface environmental wind–vertical shear alignment and counter-alignment configurations","authors":"Yingying Zheng ,&nbsp;Qingqing Li ,&nbsp;Yufan Dai","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall (SE) immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shear (VWS), using idealized numerical experiments. Results reveal that the SE develops greater radial extent when surface winds align with VWS compared to counter-aligned conditions. In alignment configurations, shear-enhanced surface winds on the right flank amplify surface enthalpy fluxes, thereby elevating boundary-layer entropy within the downshear outer-core region. Subsequently, more vigorous outer rainbands develop, inducing marked acceleration of tangential winds in the outer core preceding SE formation. The resultant radial expansion of supergradient winds near the boundary-layer top triggers widespread convective activity immediately beyond the inner core. Progressive axisymmetrization of this convective forcing ultimately generates an expansive SE structure.</div><div>摘要</div><div>在近地面环境风与垂直风切变同向和反向情形下, 次眼墙结构特征存在显著差异, 具体表现为同向情形中次眼墙对流宽度明显大于反向情形. 当环境风与切变同向时, 切变右侧近地面风速增大导致地表焓通量增大, 进而促进顺切变一侧外雨带对流发展. 与外雨带相关的轴平均径向涡度通量使得边界层切向风速显著增大, 形成更大范围的超梯度风, 从而导致边界层辐合区扩大, 触发更大范围的对流活动, 最终对流轴对称化形成更宽的次眼墙.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":"Article 100646"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145610577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Latent and sensible heat fluxes in a very unstable atmospheric surface layer and weak-wind conditions in a tropical coastal ocean","authors":"Haitem M Almdhun ,&nbsp;Yusri Yusup ,&nbsp;Ehsan Jolous Jamshidi ,&nbsp;Abdulghani Swesi ,&nbsp;Muhammad Fikri Sigid ,&nbsp;Abigail Adomako","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100617","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100617","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The atmospheric surface layer of the tropical coastal ocean is commonly very unstable and experiences weak-wind conditions. How the latent (LE) and sensible (<em>H</em>) heat fluxes behave under such conditions are unclear because of the lack of observation stations in the tropics. Thus, this study aims to analyze LE and <em>H</em> and the microclimate parameters influencing them. The authors deployed an eddy covariance system in a tropical coastal region for seven months. The microclimate parameters investigated were wind speed (<em>U</em>), vapor pressure deficit (<em>Δe</em>), temperature difference (<em>ΔT</em>), wind-vapor pressure deficit (<em>UΔe</em>), wind-temperature difference (<em>UΔT</em>), and atmospheric stability (<em>z/L</em>), where <em>z</em> is height and <em>L</em> is the Monin–Obukhov length. On the daily time scale, the results show that LE was more associated with <em>U</em> than <em>Δe</em>, while <em>H</em> was more related to <em>ΔT</em> than <em>U</em>. Cross-wavelet analysis revealed the strong coherence in the LE–<em>U</em> relationship for periods between one and two days, and for <em>H</em>–<em>ΔT</em>, 0.5 to 1 day. Correlation and regression analyses confirmed the time series analyses results, where strong positive correlation coefficients (<em>r</em>) were obtained between LE and <em>U</em> (<em>r</em> = 0.494) and <em>H</em> and <em>ΔT</em> (<em>r</em> = 0.365). Compared to other water bodies, the transfer coefficient of moisture (<em>C_E</em>_N) was found to be small (= 0.40 × 10⁻³) and independent of stability; conversely, the transfer coefficient of heat (<em>C_H</em>_N) was closer to literature values (= 1.00 × 10⁻³) and a function of stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":"Article 100617"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145610571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mechanisms of ENSO’s cross-seasonal modulation of winter–spring atmospheric river activity over East Asia","authors":"Yuliang Zhou,&nbsp;Wentao Jia,&nbsp;Weimin Zhang,&nbsp;Huizan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100659","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100659","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data and a multi-algorithm integrated atmospheric river (AR) identification method, the authors reveal the cross-seasonal regulation mechanism of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on winter–spring AR activities in East Asia. The results show that ENSO asymmetrically modulates AR activity through teleconnection and hysteresis effects, and has significant enhancement/inhibition effects on ARs in different regions. At the onset of El Niño, enhanced southwesterly flow at the western edge of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) leads to enhanced AR activity in the western Pacific, and anomalous southerly winds in the Indian Ocean promote northward transport of water vapor in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. With a three-month lag, the weakening and eastward retreat of the WPSH weakens the low-latitude AR activity, but persistent southerly winds in the Bay of Bengal maintain the AR activity over Southwest China. The mid- to high-latitude AR response exhibits delayed dynamics, initially dominated by the synergistic effect of the southward deviation of the upper-air rapids and the low-level convergence (double-rapid-flow effect) and later modulated by the Pacific–North American teleconnection (PNA)-triggered East Asian ridge, which enhances the precipitation efficiency through prolonged frontal activity and enhanced cold–warm airmass convergence. Overall, El Niño promotes the development of low- and midlatitude AR activity in East Asia, while La Niña promotes (maritime continental) AR activity in the tropics. This study establishes the “ENSO teleconnection → circulation adjustment → East Asian AR response” chain, revealing a cross-seasonal lagged response mechanisms of East Asian AR activity, and provides a theoretical basis for winter and spring climate prediction and extreme precipitation forecasting.</div><div>摘要</div><div>本研究基于MERRA-2再分析数据及多算法融合的AR识别方法, 揭示ENSO通过遥相关效应对东亚冬春季大气河活动的跨季节调控机制. 厄尔尼诺初期, 西太平洋副高西侧增强的西南风激发西太平洋AR活动, 同时印度洋偏南风异常促进阿拉伯海-孟加拉湾水汽北输; 滞后3个月后, WPSH东退削弱低纬AR, 但孟加拉湾持续南风维持西南地区AR活动. 中高纬AR响应初期受高空急流南偏与低层辐合 (双急流效应) 协同作用, 后期由PNA遥相关触发的东亚脊调制, 通过延长锋面活动及增强冷暖空气辐合提升降水效率. 总体而言, 厄尔尼诺促进东亚中低纬AR发展, 拉尼娜则增强热带海洋性大陆AR活动. \"ENSO遥相关-环流调整-东亚AR响应\"机制链为冬春季气候预测及极端降水预报提供理论基础.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":"Article 100659"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145610574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Different effects of eastern and central Pacific El Niño events on the surface shortwave radiation over southern China in winter","authors":"Ming Cheng ,&nbsp;Ziniu Xiao ,&nbsp;Xinyi Lai ,&nbsp;Jingjing Xu ,&nbsp;Siyu Lu ,&nbsp;Baorong Zhou ,&nbsp;Weisi Deng","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100655","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100655","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the distinct impacts of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events on winter shortwave solar radiation (SSR) in southern China, revealing different spatial distributions and underlying mechanisms. The results show that, during the developing winter of EP El Niño, significant SSR reductions occur in southwestern China and the east coast of southern China due to a strong, zonally extended Northwest Pacific anticyclone that transports moisture from the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian Ocean, while the northeast of southern China experiences a weak increase in SSR. In contrast, during the developing winter of CP El Niño, SSR decreases in the east of southern China with a significant decrease in the lower basin of the Yangtze River but an increase in the west of southern China with a remarkable increase in eastern Yunnan. The pronounced east–west dipole pattern in SSR anomalies is driven by a meridionally elongated Northwest Pacific anticyclone, which enhances northward moisture transport to the east of southern China while leaving western areas drier. Further research reveals that distinct moisture anomalies during the developing winter of EP and CP events result in divergent SSR distributions across southern China, primarily through modulating the total cloud cover. These findings highlight the critical need to differentiate between El Niño types when predicting medium and long-term variability of radiation in southern China.</div><div>摘要</div><div>东部型 (EP) 和中部型 (CP) 厄尔尼诺发展年冬季中国南方地区地表太阳短波辐射 (SSR) 的空间分布特征存在明显差异. 在EP厄尔尼诺发展年冬季, 受西北太平洋反气旋异常西伸的影响, 来自热带西北太平洋和北印度洋的水汽输送增强, 导致中国西南和华南沿海SSR明显减少, 中国南方东北部SSR微弱增加; 在CP厄尔尼诺事件发展年冬季, 中国南方东部SSR减少 (长江下游流域尤为显著), 而西部SSR增加 (滇东地区增幅突出), 该偶极型异常分布与经向延伸的西北太平洋反气旋加强了中国南方东部的水汽北向输送有关. 研究指出, 两类厄尔尼诺事件发展年冬季水汽异常存在明显差异, 并通过调控总云量导致中国南方SSR空间分布的差异.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":"Article 100655"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145610623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Typhoon Kompasu (2118) simulation with planetary boundary layer and cloud physics parameterization improvements","authors":"Xiaowei Tan ,&nbsp;Zhiqiu Gao ,&nbsp;Yubin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100592","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100592","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces a new ocean surface friction velocity scheme and a modified Thompson cloud microphysics parameterization scheme into the CMA-TYM model. The impact of these two parameterization schemes on the prediction of the movement track and intensity of Typhoon Kompasu in 2021 is examined. Additionally, the possible reasons for their effects on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction are analyzed. Statistical results show that both parameterization schemes improve the predictions of Typhoon Kompasu's track and intensity. The influence on track prediction becomes evident after 60 h of model integration, while the significant positive impact on intensity prediction is observed after 66 h. Further analysis reveals that these two schemes affect the timing and magnitude of extreme TC intensity values by influencing the evolution of the TC's warm-core structure.</div><div>摘要</div><div>本研究将一种新的海洋表面摩擦速度方案和一种改进的Thompson云微物理参数化方案引入CMA-TYM台风模式. 研究了这两种参数化方案对2021年台风“圆规” (Kompasu) 移动路径和强度预报的影响. 此外, 还分析了它们对台风强度预报影响的可能原因. 统计结果表明, 这两种参数化方案都能提升对台风Kompasu路径和强度的预报能力. 在模式积分60小时后, 对路径预报的影响变得明显, 而在66小时后, 观察到对强度预报有显著的正影响. 进一步的分析表明, 这两种参数化方案能通过影响台风暖心结构的演变来影响台风强度极值出现的时间和幅度.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":"Article 100592"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145610570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecast errors of tropical cyclone track and intensity by the China Meteorological Administration from 2013 to 2022","authors":"Huanmujin Yuan ,&nbsp;Hong Wang ,&nbsp;Yubin Li ,&nbsp;Kevin K.W. Cheung ,&nbsp;Zhiqiu Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100675","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100675","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022, based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration. The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade, with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters. Track forecast errors have steadily decreased, particularly for longer lead times, while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times. Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements, with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts. The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance: typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems; intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems; and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases. These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems, and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior, providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.</div><div>摘要</div><div>本文系统评估了中国气象局在2013至2022年间对西北太平洋热带气旋的预报能力. 结果表明: 过去十年间路径和强度预报均取得显著进步, 其中120小时强度预报误差年均降低0.26 m/s. 研究发现三个关键特征: (1) 台风级以上强热带气旋的路径预报误差小于弱气旋; (2) 强度预报存在系统性偏差, 对弱气旋预报偏强而对强气旋预报偏弱; (3) 近海区域路径预报误差较大. 这些结果反映出近年来对热带气旋预报能力的进步, 也指出了未来预报系统发展的关键方向.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":"Article 100675"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145610575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}