Westward shift of western North Pacific tropical cyclones in CMIP6-HighResMIP models

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100594

Zhuoying Li , Wen Zhou

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

摘要

在全球变暖背景下, 热带气旋的活动变化引起广泛关注. 观测数据表明, 西北太平洋热带气旋年平均生成经度呈减小趋势. 本研究利用CMIP6-HighResMIP模式对西北太平洋热带气旋活动的经度变化进行研究, 这些高分辨率模式较好地捕捉了西北太平洋热带气旋的生成密度. 研究显示西北太平洋地区热带气旋生成经度呈现西移的趋势, 这一趋势与西北太平洋地区东南部热带气旋频率的显著减少有关. 本研究还讨论了大尺度环流模式的变化以及太平洋沃克环流的加强所造成的影响.

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CMIP6-HighResMIP模式对北太平洋西部热带气旋西移的影响

Against the backdrop of climate change, the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) has captured widespread attention. Observational datasets indicate a declining trend in the genesis longitude of western North Pacific (WNP) TCs. This study investigates the zonal changes of WNP TCs with CMIP6-HighResMIP models. These models capture the genesis density of WNP TCs fairly well. The results reveal a westward shift in TC genesis longitude. This trend is associated with the significant reduction in the TC frequency over the southeastern WNP. The study also discusses changes in large-scale circulation patterns and the impact of the strengthening Pacific Walker circulation.摘要在全球变暖背景下, 热带气旋的活动变化引起广泛关注. 观测数据表明, 西北太平洋热带气旋年平均生成经度呈减小趋势. 本研究利用CMIP6-HighResMIP模式对西北太平洋热带气旋活动的经度变化进行研究, 这些高分辨率模式较好地捕捉了西北太平洋热带气旋的生成密度. 研究显示西北太平洋地区热带气旋生成经度呈现西移的趋势, 这一趋势与西北太平洋地区东南部热带气旋频率的显著减少有关. 本研究还讨论了大尺度环流模式的变化以及太平洋沃克环流的加强所造成的影响.

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