Historical and future climate changes impact global solar photovoltaic power potential: Role of key meteorological variables

Renewable energy, especially solar power, is vital for mitigating global warming, while climate change also impacts solar photovoltaic potential (PVpot). This study analyzes historical (1985–2014) and future (2015–2100) climate effects on PVpot, and quantifies contributions from changed radiation, temperature, and wind speed. Historically, global PVpot increased by 0.42 ‰, with notable rises in eastern China (+7.1 ‰) and southern Europe (+3.5 ‰). By the end of the century, increased radiation-induced PVpot (+1.27 ‰) offsets temperature-induced PVpot loss (−0.54 ‰) under SSP1-2.6, yielding a net PVpot increase (+0.74 ‰). Under SSP2-4.5, the temperature-induced PVpot decline (−1.50 ‰) drives the final PVpot reduction (−1.15 ‰). Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, combined radiation-induced (−1.94 ‰ and −1.99 ‰) and temperature-induced PVpot changes (−2.67 ‰ and −3.41 ‰) result in significant PVpot declines (−4.57 ‰ and −5.31 ‰). Regional analysis reveals that eastern China (+0.7‰ to +8.6 ‰), southern Europe (+0.3 ‰ to +2.5 ‰), and Northwest South America (+0.6 ‰ to +2.1 ‰) retain positive changes in future PVpot across all climate scenarios, which may be due to reduced aerosols and cloud cover, suggesting these areas can remain suitable for photovoltaic installations despite climate changes. In contrast, temperature-driven PVpot declines over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (−9.1 ‰ to −4.3 ‰) and northern Africa (−9.3 ‰ to −4.9 ‰) under future high-emission scenarios indicate that these historically advantageous regions will become less suitable for solar energy deployment. The findings underscore that climate changes driven by sustainable development pathways will generate more PVpot in the future for better global warming mitigation.

摘要

可再生能源, 特别是太阳能发电对于减缓全球变暖至关重要, 但气候变化会影响太阳能光伏潜力 (PVpot) . 本研究分析了历史 (1985–2014年) 和未来 (2015–2100年) 气候对PVpot的影响, 量化了辐射, 温度和风速的贡献. 从历史上看, 全球PVpot增加了0.42 ‰, 其中中国东部 (+7.1 ‰) 和南欧 (+3.5 ‰) 的增长显著. 到本世纪末, 在SSP1-2.6下, 辐射引起的PVpot增加 (+1.27 ‰) 抵消了温度引起的PVpot损失 (−0.54 ‰) , 从而PVpot增加 (+0.74 ‰). 在SSP2-4.5下, 温度引起的PVpot下降 (−1.50 ‰) 导致最终PVpot减少 (−1.15 ‰) . 在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5中, 辐射引起的 (−1.94 ‰和−1.99 ‰) 和温度引起的PVpot变化 (−2.67 ‰和−3.41 ‰) 共同导致PVpot显著下降 (−4.57 ‰和−5.31 ‰) . 区域分析表明, 中国东部 (+0.7 ‰∼+8.6 ‰) , 南欧 (+0.3 ‰∼+2.5 ‰) 和南美洲西北部 (+0.6 ‰∼+2.1 ‰) 在所有气候情景下的PVpot都保持正变化, 这可能是由于气溶胶和云量减少, 这表明尽管未来气候变化, 这些地区仍然适合安装光伏设备. 相比之下, 在高排放情景下, 青藏高原 (−9.1 ‰∼−4.3 ‰) 和北非 (−9.3‰∼−4.9 ‰) 的光伏发电量因温度升高而下降, 这些历史上有利的地区将不再适合部署太阳能. 本研究结果强调, 可持续发展道路推动的气候变化将在未来产生更多的光伏发电量, 从而更好地减缓全球变暖.