通过集合敏感性分析了解台风快速增强的初始条件

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Yixuan Ren, Lili Lei, Jian-Feng Gu, Zhe-Min Tan, Yi Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

虽然台风路径预报已稳步改善,但强度预报仍缺乏改善。强度预报面临的一个挑战是如何捕捉快速增强(RI),它的非线性特征给数值模型带来了很大的困难。本文使用集合灵敏度分析(ESA)方法来分析有助于台风强度预报的初始条件,特别是与RI的预报。将2016年5个台风(恰巴、海马、莫兰蒂、莎莉卡和松达)的6个RI过程应用于ESA,并给出了有利于后续RI的复合初始条件。当采用不同的积云参数化方案时,个别情况的ESA模式大致相似,但大小不同。为了得到具有统计学意义的初始条件,我们得到了ESA的样本平均方位角分量。综合敏感性结果表明,24 h内经历RI的台风有利于由低到高的初级环流增强,低层辐入增加,高层辐出增加,低层辐入增加,300 hPa附近有一个明显的暖核,低层湿度增加。随着预报提前期的增加,欧空局的模式被保留,而灵敏度值则衰减。考虑到不同的积云参数化方案的一般和定量的复合敏感性以及相关的不确定性,在数值模式中适当采样复合敏感性可能有利于捕获RI和改进台风强度的预测。摘要针对台风强度特别是快速增强(RI)的预报难点,本文对2016年5个台风的6次国际扶轮过程应用集合敏感性分析(ESA),以分析有利于扶轮的初始条件。【翻译】:欧司朗,欧司朗。复合敏感性揭示了经历RI的台风所需的初始条件,其有更强的主环流,更显著的暖心及增加的低层湿度。3 .参考译文:通过采样复合敏感性可有望改进集合初始条件及台风强度预报.
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Understanding the initial conditions contributing to the rapid intensification of typhoons through ensemble sensitivity analysis

Understanding the initial conditions contributing to the rapid intensification of typhoons through ensemble sensitivity analysis
While steady improvements have been achieved for the track forecasts of typhoons, there has been a lack of improvement for intensity forecasts. One challenge for intensity forecasts is to capture the rapid intensification (RI), whose nonlinear characteristics impose great difficulties for numerical models. The ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) method is used here to analyze the initial conditions that contribute to typhoon intensity forecasts, especially with RI. Six RI processes from five typhoons (Chaba, Haima, Meranti, Sarika, and Songda) in 2016, are applied with ESA, which also gives a composite initial condition that favors subsequent RI. Results from individual cases have generally similar patterns of ESA, but with different magnitudes, when various cumulus parameterization schemes are applied. To draw the initial conditions with statistical significance, sample-mean azimuthal components of ESA are obtained. Results of the composite sensitivity show that typhoons that experience RI in 24 h favor enhanced primary circulation from low to high levels, intensified secondary circulation with increased radial inflow at lower levels and increased radial outflow at upper levels, a prominent warm core at around 300 hPa, and increased humidity at low levels. As the forecast lead time increases, the patterns of ESA are retained, while the sensitivity magnitudes decay. Given the general and quantitative composite sensitivity along with associated uncertainties for different cumulus parameterization schemes, appropriate sampling of the composite sensitivity in numerical models could be beneficial to capturing the RI and improving the forecasting of typhoon intensity.
摘要
针对台风强度特别是快速增强 (RI) 的预报难点, 本文对2016年5个台风的6次RI过程应用集合敏感性分析 (ESA), 以分析有利于RI的初始条件. 对于不同的个例和积云参数化方案, ESA获得的有利于台风RI的集合敏感性相似但量级存在差异. 复合敏感性揭示了经历RI的台风所需的初始条件, 其有更强的主环流, 更显著的暖心及增加的低层湿度. ESA估计的集合敏感性随预报时长增加而减弱. 通过采样复合敏感性可有望改进集合初始条件及台风强度预报.
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来源期刊
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
8.70%
发文量
925
审稿时长
12 weeks
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