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Evaluating Policy Impact: Working Out What Works 评估政策影响：找出行之有效的方法
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12530
Andrew Leigh
{"title":"Evaluating Policy Impact: Working Out What Works","authors":"Andrew Leigh","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12530","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12530","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Randomised trials frequently produce surprising findings, overturning conventional wisdom. During the twentieth century, randomised trials became commonplace within medicine, saving millions of lives. Randomised trials within government can now be conducted more cheaply, using administrative data. Just as it might be considered unethical to conduct a randomised trial if a program is indisputably effective, it might be considered unethical not to conduct a rigorous evaluation if a program lacks evidence. Developed within a robust ethical framework, and alongside community consultation, better evaluation can help governments save money and address social disadvantage.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 4","pages":"431-441"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136262990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Monetary Policy Mistakes and Remedies: An Assessment Following the RBA Review 货币政策失误与补救措施：澳大利亚储备银行审查后的评估
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-09-19 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12528
Ross Garnaut, David Vines
{"title":"Monetary Policy Mistakes and Remedies: An Assessment Following the RBA Review","authors":"Ross Garnaut,&nbsp;David Vines","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12528","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12528","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article responds to the Review of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which was released on 20 April 2023. We describe the underperformance of the Australian economy over the past decade, and identify the contribution of RBA mistakes. We suggest remedies that would improve prospects for low inflation and unemployment. Returning to general prosperity requires better coordination of monetary, fiscal and macro-prudential policy and of these with other aspects of economic policy-making. We conclude that while the RBA Review makes some valuable suggestions about structure and process at the RBA, it provides little guidance on the content of policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 3","pages":"273-287"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50138148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nowcasting National GDP Growth Using Small Business Sales Growth 利用小企业销售增长预测全国GDP增长
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12527
Cahit Guven
{"title":"Nowcasting National GDP Growth Using Small Business Sales Growth","authors":"Cahit Guven","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12527","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12527","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study shows that the Xero Small Business Index (XSBI) sales growth data can be used to predict the same period's national nominal GDP growth, with high accuracy, in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Findings show that XSBI sales growth can predict the same month's GDP growth around two weeks earlier than the official release in the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the three-month average of the XSBI sales growth can predict the same quarter's GDP growth, six weeks earlier than the official release in New Zealand and five weeks earlier than the official release in Australia.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 3","pages":"381-392"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47504281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can Pre-recorded Evidence Raise Conviction Rates in Cases of Domestic Violence? 预先记录的证据能提高家庭暴力案件的定罪率吗？
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12525
Steve S. Yeong, Suzanne Poynton
{"title":"Can Pre-recorded Evidence Raise Conviction Rates in Cases of Domestic Violence?","authors":"Steve S. Yeong,&nbsp;Suzanne Poynton","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12525","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12525","url":null,"abstract":"<p><i>This paper explores the association between pre-recorded evidence and court outcomes in cases of domestic violence. Net of controls and time fixed effects, we find that cases with pre-recorded evidence are 3.4 percentage points more likely to result in a conviction. This increase occurs through three channels: a 5.6 percentage point increase in the probability of a conviction among (the one in four) cases that proceed to a defended hearing; a 2.4 percentage point increase in the probability of a guilty plea; and, a 2.4 percentage point decrease in the probability that the prosecution withdraws their case</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 4","pages":"487-499"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12525","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41676558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Place-Based Policies and Nowcasting 基于地点的政策和临近预测
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12526
Ashton de Silva, Maria Yanotti, Sarah Sinclair, Sveta Angelopoulos
{"title":"Place-Based Policies and Nowcasting","authors":"Ashton de Silva,&nbsp;Maria Yanotti,&nbsp;Sarah Sinclair,&nbsp;Sveta Angelopoulos","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12526","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12526","url":null,"abstract":"<p>There is a growing need to gauge local economic activity in real time. Localised economic challenges have been emphasised in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Real-time trackers (such as OECD trackers) and other nowcasting applications typically correspond to national or highly aggregated regions. In this discussion paper, we briefly explore how unconventional data might be used to produce nowcasts of local economies. We argue that in the absence of traditional nowcasting metrics, efforts to nowcast local economies need a <i>local</i> perspective, with data capture tailored to address heterogeneity across three domains: (1) resources, (2) people and (3) life.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 3","pages":"363-370"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12526","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49140064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Nowcasting Key Australian Macroeconomic Variables 临近预测澳大利亚主要宏观经济变量
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-08-08 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12524
Michael Anthonisz
{"title":"Nowcasting Key Australian Macroeconomic Variables","authors":"Michael Anthonisz","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12524","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12524","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Forecasts are relied upon as a guide to what future outcomes for the economy might be. However, it is also important to estimate what is happening in the economy now or has taken place in the recent past. This is where ‘nowcasts’ come in. In this article, I describe what nowcasting is, why it can be a useful tool for macroeconomists as well as present daily nowcasts of key Australian macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 3","pages":"371-380"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42183834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Labour Mobility With Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply 具有职业技能的劳动力流动：澳大利亚需求与太平洋供应
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12522
Michael A. Clemens, Satish Chand
{"title":"Labour Mobility With Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply","authors":"Michael A. Clemens,&nbsp;Satish Chand","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12522","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12522","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Can new channels for mid-skill labour mobility simultaneously enhance the welfare of Australia and the Pacific Region? Answering this question requires forecasting Australian demand for vocationally-skilled migrants over the next generation, and the potential for Pacific supply of those migrants. We project demand for such mid-skill migrants over the next three decades by combining data on trends in the demand for basic tasks with data on trends in native investment in education commensurate with those tasks. We estimate that the Australian economy growing at historical rates through the year 2050 will demand approximately 1.6–2.1 million foreign workers with Technical and Vocational Education and Training. A large share of these could be supplied from the Pacific Islands with sufficient investment in training, with direct cooperation from Australian employers, and targeted access to the Australian labour market.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 4","pages":"462-486"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12522","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47351094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Housing Fever in Australia 2020–23: Insights from an Econometric Thermometer 澳大利亚2020-23年的住房热:计量经济学温度计的见解
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12523
Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
{"title":"Housing Fever in Australia 2020–23: Insights from an Econometric Thermometer","authors":"Shuping Shi,&nbsp;Peter C. B. Phillips","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12523","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12523","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Australian housing markets experienced widespread and, in some cases, extraordinary growth in prices between 2020 and 2023. Using recently developed methodology that accounts for fundamental economic drivers, we assess the existence and degree of speculative behaviour, as well as the timing of exuberance and downturns in these markets. Our findings indicate that speculative behaviour was indeed present in six of the eight capital cities at some time over the period studied. The sequence of events in this nation-wide housing bubble began in the Brisbane market and concluded in Melbourne, Canberra, and Hobart following the interest rate rise implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May 2022. As of March 2023, the housing markets in Sydney, Canberra and Hobart had broadly regained stability, while Melbourne's return to its normal state is more gradual. In addition, over-corrections against fundamentals are evident in the housing markets of Brisbane, Adelaide, Darwin and Perth. For regular updates on the housing markets, readers may visit the authors' website at https://www.housing-fever.com.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 3","pages":"357-362"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12523","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47839143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Changing Nature of Patents in Australia 澳大利亚专利性质的变化
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12521
Sasan Bakhtiari
{"title":"Changing Nature of Patents in Australia","authors":"Sasan Bakhtiari","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12521","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent decades have seen substantial changes to the innovation systems of major economies, not least due to a paradigm shift caused by the digital revolution. Whether smaller advanced economies such as Australia have undergone a similar shift or moved to fill the void left by other countries is unclear. This issue is important as it sets the long-term growth path of these economies. I use Australian patent data and show that there has been a similar surge in Australia in patenting, mainly driven by medical and digital technologies. Australia, however, is showing more strength in a few niche areas. At the same time, the scope of patents, as one measure of basicness, narrowed over the years. This has been driven by private companies opting for applied research and also refocusing their innovation efforts away from chemical and material technologies and onto digital technologies and other applied areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 3","pages":"288-307"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12521","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50154590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Under- and Postgraduate Education in Health Economics for Australia's Medical Practitioners: Time for Change? 澳大利亚执业医师健康经济学的初级和研究生教育：是时候改变了吗？
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-06-23 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12520
Jeffrey C. L. Looi, Jasmine M. Davis, Martin Hensher, Stephen J. Robson
{"title":"Under- and Postgraduate Education in Health Economics for Australia's Medical Practitioners: Time for Change?","authors":"Jeffrey C. L. Looi,&nbsp;Jasmine M. Davis,&nbsp;Martin Hensher,&nbsp;Stephen J. Robson","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12520","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12520","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Directly or indirectly, medical practitioners influence health-care policy and spending through their clinical decision-making. As medical expertise and technology has grown, and patient choice has been empowered by the consumer movement, there are now many more medical interventions than can be accommodated in a finite national health-care budget. We reviewed the Australian Medical Council, Medical School and Medical Specialist curricula. In Australia, medical students, doctors and medical specialists do not appear to have specific health economics education that would improve skills to select beneficial and cost-effective care. We propose a framework for medical practitioner health economics education.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 3","pages":"393-412"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12520","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41780731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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