利用小企业销售增长预测全国GDP增长

IF 1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI:10.1111/1467-8462.12527

Cahit Guven

{"title":"利用小企业销售增长预测全国GDP增长","authors":"Cahit Guven","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12527","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study shows that the Xero Small Business Index (XSBI) sales growth data can be used to predict the same period's national nominal GDP growth, with high accuracy, in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Findings show that XSBI sales growth can predict the same month's GDP growth around two weeks earlier than the official release in the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the three-month average of the XSBI sales growth can predict the same quarter's GDP growth, six weeks earlier than the official release in New Zealand and five weeks earlier than the official release in Australia.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"56 3","pages":"381-392"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Nowcasting National GDP Growth Using Small Business Sales Growth\",\"authors\":\"Cahit Guven\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/1467-8462.12527\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This study shows that the Xero Small Business Index (XSBI) sales growth data can be used to predict the same period's national nominal GDP growth, with high accuracy, in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Findings show that XSBI sales growth can predict the same month's GDP growth around two weeks earlier than the official release in the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the three-month average of the XSBI sales growth can predict the same quarter's GDP growth, six weeks earlier than the official release in New Zealand and five weeks earlier than the official release in Australia.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":46348,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Australian Economic Review\",\"volume\":\"56 3\",\"pages\":\"381-392\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-08-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Australian Economic Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8462.12527\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Australian Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8462.12527","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究表明，在英国、澳大利亚和新西兰，Xero小企业指数(XSBI)的销售增长数据可以用来预测同期的国家名义GDP增长，准确率很高。研究结果表明，XSBI的销售增长可以比英国官方发布的数据提前两周左右预测同月的GDP增长。另一方面，XSBI销售增长的三个月平均值可以预测同一季度的GDP增长，比新西兰官方发布的数据早6周，比澳大利亚官方发布的数据早5周。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Nowcasting National GDP Growth Using Small Business Sales Growth

This study shows that the Xero Small Business Index (XSBI) sales growth data can be used to predict the same period's national nominal GDP growth, with high accuracy, in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Findings show that XSBI sales growth can predict the same month's GDP growth around two weeks earlier than the official release in the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the three-month average of the XSBI sales growth can predict the same quarter's GDP growth, six weeks earlier than the official release in New Zealand and five weeks earlier than the official release in Australia.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Australian Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： An applied economics journal with a strong policy orientation, The Australian Economic Review publishes high-quality articles applying economic analysis to a wide range of macroeconomic and microeconomic topics relevant to both economic and social policy issues. Produced by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, it is the leading journal of its kind in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. While it is of special interest to Australian academics, students, policy makers, and others interested in the Australian economy, the journal also considers matters of international interest.