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Labor market forecasting in unprecedented times: A machine learning approach 史无前例的劳动力市场预测：机器学习方法
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12451
Johanna M. Orozco-Castañeda, Lya Paola Sierra-Suárez, Pavel Vidal
{"title":"Labor market forecasting in unprecedented times: A machine learning approach","authors":"Johanna M. Orozco-Castañeda,&nbsp;Lya Paola Sierra-Suárez,&nbsp;Pavel Vidal","doi":"10.1111/boer.12451","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12451","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The COVID-19 pandemic ushered in unprecedented social and economic conditions, alongside unexpected policy responses, challenging the effectiveness of traditional labor market forecasting approaches. This article presents a novel approach that integrates macroeconomic variables, traditional labor market metrics, and Google search data to develop a machine learning-based indicator for the Colombian labor market. We employ support vector machine for regression and neural networks models to forecast monthly employment and unemployment rates, explicitly focusing on the third wave of COVID-19 in the first half of 2021. Our study's findings reveal that the proposed models outperform the autoregressive benchmark regarding forecast accuracy, demonstrating a rapid adaptation to labor market shifts.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 4","pages":"893-915"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12451","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141117812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Market power and income disparities: How can firms influence the gap between capital and labor earnings 市场力量与收入差距：企业如何影响资本与劳动收入之间的差距
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12450
Chrysovalantis Amountzias
{"title":"Market power and income disparities: How can firms influence the gap between capital and labor earnings","authors":"Chrysovalantis Amountzias","doi":"10.1111/boer.12450","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12450","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the effects of market power on income disparities when firm-specific parameters are considered to test how they shape the gap between capital and labor earnings through their pricing decisions. The dataset consists of 2895 UK manufacturing and services firms over 2010–2019. The results provide the following insights: (a) There is a strong positive association between market power and income disparities across the market, (b) liquidity constraints exert a positive effect on the asset-based disparities ratio, but a negative effect on the profit-based ratio. The robustness of the results is also checked when market-specific characteristics are included in the process.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 3","pages":"861-888"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12450","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140968761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corruption spills over on citizens: The case of self-reported motivation to cheat on tax 腐败波及公民：自我报告的偷税动机案例
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12453
Abu Bakkar Siddique
{"title":"Corruption spills over on citizens: The case of self-reported motivation to cheat on tax","authors":"Abu Bakkar Siddique","doi":"10.1111/boer.12453","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12453","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Corruption poses a significant threat to societies’ social and economic fabric, eroding trust and contractual relationships between governments and citizens. This study investigates the repercussions of corruption spillover on individuals and explores how they adjust their motivation to engage in tax cheating by exploiting two distinct types of corruption heterogeneities at both individual and national levels. Leveraging newly collected individual corruption experiences locally from the World Value Survey alongside national-level corruption data from Transparency International, we employ multilevel hierarchical modeling to estimate the effects of corruption on individual tax behavior. Our findings reveal that corruption negatively impacts people's willingness to comply with tax laws, with individuals who have personally experienced corruption exhibiting a more pronounced erosion of tax morale compared to those who have not. By shedding light on the intricate dynamics of corruption's influence on tax compliance, this paper contributes to our understanding of the broader implications of corruption for people and society. This paper can also inform policymakers and stakeholders in designing targeted interventions to mitigate the adverse consequences of corruption and restore citizens’ trust in their government.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 3","pages":"839-860"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140972620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What drive financial inclusion gender gap in Cameroon? A Fairlie decomposition approach 喀麦隆金融包容性别差距的驱动因素是什么？费尔利分解法
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12447
Hermann Ndoya, Charly Tsala, Brice Kamguia
{"title":"What drive financial inclusion gender gap in Cameroon? A Fairlie decomposition approach","authors":"Hermann Ndoya,&nbsp;Charly Tsala,&nbsp;Brice Kamguia","doi":"10.1111/boer.12447","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12447","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Based on a Fairlie decomposition method, this paper analyzes the drivers of gender gaps in financial inclusion in Cameroon. We use Finscope 2017 data for Cameroon and assess six distinct financial inclusion variables grouped into two dimensions mainly, access to and use of financial products and services. Our results show that there is a gap in all indicators of access to and use of financial products and services in favor of men. The results also show that the largest contributor to the gender gap in access to financial products and services is income, with more than 50% of the contribution, whereas the largest contributor to the gender gap in the use of financial products and services is education with an average contribution of more than 35%. Based on the above findings, decision-makers in Cameroon must conduct economic policies toward facilitating equitable access to education, by providing incentives to attract women to gain higher education.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 3","pages":"822-838"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140608895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seasonality and consumer confidence 季节性和消费者信心
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12449
Balázs Zélity
{"title":"Seasonality and consumer confidence","authors":"Balázs Zélity","doi":"10.1111/boer.12449","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12449","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This research empirically investigates whether consumer confidence is affected by seasonal daylight fluctuations. Cross-country panel regressions are run with two different datasets. It is found that both solar elevation and sunlight duration positively affect consumer confidence. The presence of country and year-by-month fixed effects as well as controls for the business cycle help rule out alternative explanations. A one standard deviation increase in solar elevation or sunlight duration is associated with a 0.03–0.04 <i>SD</i> increase in consumer confidence.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 3","pages":"813-821"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140580739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The ratchet effect and the probability of proceeding to the next stage: An experiment 棘轮效应和进入下一阶段的概率：一项实验
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12448
Shigeo Morita, Tomoharu Mori
{"title":"The ratchet effect and the probability of proceeding to the next stage: An experiment","authors":"Shigeo Morita,&nbsp;Tomoharu Mori","doi":"10.1111/boer.12448","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12448","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The ratchet effect is an economic phenomenon where agents strategically restrict their efforts to conceal information on their characteristics under the dynamic setting. This study experimentally examines the effect of the probability of proceeding to the next stage on ratcheting behavior. We find evidence that if the probability is smaller than 1, the ratchet effect is mitigated.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 3","pages":"797-812"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140580347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of mainstream financial press attention on stock pricing efficiency in the China stock market 主流财经媒体关注度对中国股市股票定价效率的影响
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12445
Haiyuan Yin, Xiangmiao Hu
{"title":"The impact of mainstream financial press attention on stock pricing efficiency in the China stock market","authors":"Haiyuan Yin,&nbsp;Xiangmiao Hu","doi":"10.1111/boer.12445","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12445","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the pivotal figure of information transmission in the capital market, the mainstream financial press has a significant impact on the operation of the stock market. Based on the mainstream financial press, this study obtains the news reports of 945 China A-share listed companies in 2010–2019 and analyzes the relationship between the attention of the mainstream financial press and the efficiency of stock pricing. Further, we explore the mediating effect of corporate governance in this correlation. The empirical results show that the more reports on listed companies from the mainstream financial press the lower the delay level of the stock price of listed companies. At the same time, the characteristics information of the stock price increases, the higher the stock pricing efficiency. The attitude of press reports of listed companies also has an impact on the efficiency of stock pricing. The improvement of pricing efficiency will be achieved through neutral reporting. Mainstream financial press reports indirectly improve the efficiency of stock pricing by reducing the agency costs of the two types, and corporate governance plays a significant intermediary role in it. Finally, compared with market-oriented media, the effect of policy-oriented mainstream financial press on pricing efficiency is more significant.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 3","pages":"773-796"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140743006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Self-serving attribution and managerial investment decision 自我服务归因与管理投资决策
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12444
Chune Young Chung, Changhwan Choi, Amirhossein Fard
{"title":"Self-serving attribution and managerial investment decision","authors":"Chune Young Chung,&nbsp;Changhwan Choi,&nbsp;Amirhossein Fard","doi":"10.1111/boer.12444","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12444","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines whether managerial overconfidence coupled with self-attribution bias distorts the investment decisions of firms. To this end, we investigate the impact of overconfidence on asymmetric investment cash flow sensitivity (ICS). We find that managerial overconfidence affects ICS in a downward-sticky direction, which is reinforced by overconfidence coupled with managerial self-attribution. The results for both unconstrained and constrained firms are qualitatively consistent with those for the overall sample; however, the constrained subsample provides slightly weaker results. Thus, our findings indicate that managerial overconfidence and self-attribution to recent successes may induce managers to make excessive investment commitments.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 3","pages":"749-772"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12444","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140580354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does digital transformation crowd out the employment of lower skill labor? 数字化转型是否会挤占低技能劳动力的就业？
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-03-31 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12446
Ying Wu, Yuanyue Deng
{"title":"Does digital transformation crowd out the employment of lower skill labor?","authors":"Ying Wu,&nbsp;Yuanyue Deng","doi":"10.1111/boer.12446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12446","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the effect of digital transformation on the employment of low-skilled labor. Using a large sample of Chinese listed firms for the 2008–2021 period, we find that digital transformation reduces the employment of low-skilled labor. This result is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests and is attenuated for firms located in regions with higher unemployment rates and for small enterprises. Mechanism tests show that digital transformation affects the employment of low-skilled labor through the wage effect channel and the substitution effect channel. The paper deepens our understanding of the economic effect of digital transformation on the labor market.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 3","pages":"726-748"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141565704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The nexus of ESG requirements and industry concentration 环境、社会和治理要求与行业集中度的关系
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-02-16 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12442
Yenpo Tai, Mei-Yu Lee, Chu-Ping Lo, Su-Ying Hsu
{"title":"The nexus of ESG requirements and industry concentration","authors":"Yenpo Tai,&nbsp;Mei-Yu Lee,&nbsp;Chu-Ping Lo,&nbsp;Su-Ying Hsu","doi":"10.1111/boer.12442","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12442","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) requirements for an industry in an <i>n</i>-oligopolistic model and investigates the relationship between the degree of industry concentration and the degree of ESG requirements. It is shown that the factors influencing the degree of ESG requirements include the number of firms, the elasticity of market demand, and the market concentration ratio. In the case of linear market demand, the degree of requirements is negatively affected by firm number only, regardless of the elasticity of market demand or market concentration ratio. In addition, the degree of ESG requirements is positively (negatively) related to the industry profit/concentration, when market demand is convex (concave). This paper demonstrates that the degree of ESG requirements is sensitive to firm number, market demand, and market concentration ratio and serves as a pragmatic reference for the government.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 3","pages":"713-725"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139910878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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