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Global Value Chain Linkages and Business Cycle Comovement: Evidence From Cross-Country Panel Data 全球价值链联系和商业周期同步：来自跨国面板数据的证据
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12478
Shujin Zhu, Zixuan Wang
{"title":"Global Value Chain Linkages and Business Cycle Comovement: Evidence From Cross-Country Panel Data","authors":"Shujin Zhu,&nbsp;Zixuan Wang","doi":"10.1111/boer.12478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12478","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We empirically investigate the impact of global value chain (GVC) linkages on business cycle comovement by using the cross-country panel data covering 43 developing and developed countries over the period 2000–2014 obtained from the World Input-Output Database 2016 Release (WIOD 2016). We find that GVC linkages have a positive impact on business cycle comovement. We also find that the impact of GVC linkages in final goods is larger than that of GVC linkages in advanced intermediate goods and then GVC linkages in basic intermediate goods, indicating the moderating effect of the production length. Moreover, the impact of GVC linkages on business cycle comovement between developing and developed countries is highly significant, implying that GVC linkages may narrow the growth gap between developing and developed countries. These findings suggest the importance of the GVC specialization, the South-North cooperation, and the international risk management.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"77 2","pages":"160-173"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143778309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting Türkiye Local Inflation With Global Factors 用全球因素预测<s:1> <s:1>地方通货膨胀
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12477
Oguzhan Cepni, Abdullah Kazdal, Muhammed Enes Olgun, Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz
{"title":"Forecasting Türkiye Local Inflation With Global Factors","authors":"Oguzhan Cepni,&nbsp;Abdullah Kazdal,&nbsp;Muhammed Enes Olgun,&nbsp;Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz","doi":"10.1111/boer.12477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12477","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper investigates whether inflation forecasting in emerging economies can be improved with the inclusion of a global inflation component. Focusing on the headline inflation rate of Türkiye, we implement a forecasting exercise using a large dataset describing domestic macroeconomic as well as global inflation dynamics. Our factor-augmented predictive regression results show that incorporating global inflation factors derived from other emerging markets' inflation rates enhances forecasting accuracy of the local headline inflation rate. The results are robust to using alternative dimension-reduction methods, including the elastic net technique. Our findings contribute to the current methodological toolkit available to policymakers for predicting inflation in an emerging market context.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"77 2","pages":"148-159"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143778303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Children's Personality and Its Contribution to School Grades Inequality: Evidence From Mexico 儿童个性及其对学校成绩不平等的影响：来自墨西哥的证据
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12484
Alfonso Miranda, Yahaira Rodríguez-Martínez, Yu Zhu
{"title":"Children's Personality and Its Contribution to School Grades Inequality: Evidence From Mexico","authors":"Alfonso Miranda,&nbsp;Yahaira Rodríguez-Martínez,&nbsp;Yu Zhu","doi":"10.1111/boer.12484","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12484","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We explore the relationship between Big-5 Personality Traits and school grades, using a novel survey of state primary school children in Mexico. Linear school fixed-effects estimates controlling for household income, principal caregiver's education, IQ, and personality traits indicate that higher conscientiousness and agreeableness consistently and significantly correlate with high school performance in all subjects, net of child's IQ. A regression-based inequality decomposition shows that a child's personality accounts for 5.1% and 6.5% of the inequality in mathematics for girls and boys, whereas for Spanish, it accounts for 3.9% and 8.0%, respectively. Results are robust to unobservable confounders using Oster bounds.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"77 2","pages":"128-134"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143778383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reserve Price (In)equivalence: Shill Bidding to Lower the Reserve Price 底价（In）对等：托儿出价以降低底价
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12480
Seungwon (Eugene) Jeong
{"title":"Reserve Price (In)equivalence: Shill Bidding to Lower the Reserve Price","authors":"Seungwon (Eugene) Jeong","doi":"10.1111/boer.12480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12480","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The optimal reserve price of the third-price auction with two bidders differs from that with more than two bidders, whereas the optimal reserve price of the second-price auction is the same regardless of the number of bidders. We generalize this result to the <i>k</i>th-price multiunit auctions with single-unit demand, and introduce a new kind of shill-bidding incentive of bidders in order to lower the reserve price. Alongside budget constraints caused by overbidding, this may explain why third-price auctions are rare in practice.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"77 2","pages":"121-127"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12480","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143778468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
FDI, defense spending, and economic prosperity 外国直接投资、国防开支和经济繁荣
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12473
Mohamed Douch
{"title":"FDI, defense spending, and economic prosperity","authors":"Mohamed Douch","doi":"10.1111/boer.12473","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12473","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and military spending in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is complex and multifaceted. High levels of military spending can deter foreign investors, as it creates an uncertain and potentially volatile investment climate. However, countries that invest in their military infrastructure and capabilities may be seen as more stable and secure, which can attract foreign investors. Taking into account several factors that can influence this relationship, including political stability, security concerns, and economic factors, this work analyzes whether military spending attracts foreign capital into the region. Using a dynamic panel data methodology along with other relevant macroeconomic variables, results show that the military expenditure has a positive and significant impact on FDI inflows into the MENA region. The paper highlights the fact that policymakers in the region must carefully balance military spending with investments in other areas of the economy in order to create a stable and favorable investment climate that attracts foreign investors and contributes to long-term economic growth and development achieving both security and welfare.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"77 1","pages":"86-118"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12473","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On optimal betting strategies with multiple mutually exclusive outcomes 关于多重互斥结果的最佳投注策略
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12474
Karl Whelan
{"title":"On optimal betting strategies with multiple mutually exclusive outcomes","authors":"Karl Whelan","doi":"10.1111/boer.12474","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12474","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the problem of how much risk-averse agents would be willing to bet on events where there are multiple possible winners but only one will actually win. We describe how this problem can be solved for concave utility functions and illustrate the properties of the solution. The optimal betting strategy is more aggressive than strategies derived from considering each outcome separately such as the Kelly criterion. The strategy also recommends sometimes placing bets with negative expected returns because they act as hedges against losses on other bets. While this strategy maximizes the bettor's subjective expected utility, if betting odds incorporate a profit margin and reflect underlying probabilities correctly, then this more aggressive approach loses more money and results in lower realized utility.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"77 1","pages":"67-85"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12474","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142179034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Learning at university 大学学习
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12470
Gervas Huxley, Mike W. Peacey
{"title":"Learning at university","authors":"Gervas Huxley,&nbsp;Mike W. Peacey","doi":"10.1111/boer.12470","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12470","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Much of the economic literature on education models the process of acquiring human capital as a “black box.” While such models have many interesting uses, they are of little use when a student is considering how much teaching she needs and how her time at university is allocated between study and attending class. Considering such questions requires us to “open up” the black box. Our paper shows what one such model would look like by explicitly modeling how students choose to learn. We believe that this framework can inform the current debate about teaching in higher education.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"77 1","pages":"47-66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12470","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142179029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Market integration effect on technological innovation empirical analysis: A novel concept 市场整合对技术创新影响的实证分析：一个新概念
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-08-04 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12472
Zhuo Luo
{"title":"Market integration effect on technological innovation empirical analysis: A novel concept","authors":"Zhuo Luo","doi":"10.1111/boer.12472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12472","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In today's globalization and rapid technological development, market integration has an important impact on the competitiveness and innovation ability of enterprises. Market integration includes the integration of factor markets and goods markets, aiming to optimize resource allocation and expand market size, thus promoting economic growth and technological innovation. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of market integration on technological innovation. Using a two-stage least-squares (IV-2SLS) model and combining the data of Chinese stock market and accounting research from 2012 to 2021, it is pointed out that market integration has a significant impact on innovation ability. Research shows that the integration of factor and goods markets promotes innovation through market expansion, innovation in emerging technologies, and increased competitiveness of firms. However, there are also differences in the way that region, type of enterprise ownership, and economic sector influence market integration innovation. Factor market integration effectively promotes technological innovation by reducing government intervention and optimizing resource allocation. The results of the study provide an important reference for enterprises to make strategic decisions, especially in the face of the different effects of market integration on innovation.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"77 1","pages":"26-46"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household assets and business cycle fluctuations 家庭资产和商业周期波动
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-08-04 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12469
Shogo Miura
{"title":"Household assets and business cycle fluctuations","authors":"Shogo Miura","doi":"10.1111/boer.12469","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12469","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper shows that an increase in the ratio of household assets to gross domestic product (GDP) predicts higher GDP growth in the short term, but lower growth in the long term. It is also associated with lower consumption, investment, and employment rates in the future. The result is robust to controlling for various economic indicators including credit spreads, household debt to GDP ratio, and leverage ratio. Finally, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that an increase in the interest rate is associated with a decrease in the household assets to GDP ratio, in contrast to the findings of Galí and Gambetti (2015, <i>American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics</i>, <i>7</i>(1), 233–257). This appears to support the conventional view of monetary policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"77 1","pages":"5-25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141942637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An empirical investigation of the mitigating effect of debt on overinvestment as shareholder rights vary 随着股东权益的变化，债务对过度投资的缓解作用的实证调查
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12471
Chune Young Chung, Daejin Kim, Junyoup Lee
{"title":"An empirical investigation of the mitigating effect of debt on overinvestment as shareholder rights vary","authors":"Chune Young Chung,&nbsp;Daejin Kim,&nbsp;Junyoup Lee","doi":"10.1111/boer.12471","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12471","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, we investigate the relationship between debt governance and overinvestment. We use net cash flows to debtholders as a proxy for debt governance and find that an increase in these cash flows mitigates firms' overinvestment. We also show that free cash flows lead cash-rich and cash-poor firms to overinvest but that debt governance attenuates this problem. Finally, we find that the mitigating effect of net cash flows to debtholders on overinvestment is highly pronounced in firms with poor governance. These findings suggest that net cash flows to debtholders are particularly effective when shareholder governance is weak. We conclude that cash flows to debtholders can effectively prevent overinvestment and reduce the agency costs of free cash flows.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 4","pages":"1126-1149"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141886120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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