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On optimal betting strategies with multiple mutually exclusive outcomes 关于多重互斥结果的最佳投注策略
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12474
Karl Whelan
{"title":"On optimal betting strategies with multiple mutually exclusive outcomes","authors":"Karl Whelan","doi":"10.1111/boer.12474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12474","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the problem of how much risk‐averse agents would be willing to bet on events where there are multiple possible winners but only one will actually win. We describe how this problem can be solved for concave utility functions and illustrate the properties of the solution. The optimal betting strategy is more aggressive than strategies derived from considering each outcome separately such as the Kelly criterion. The strategy also recommends sometimes placing bets with negative expected returns because they act as hedges against losses on other bets. While this strategy maximizes the bettor's subjective expected utility, if betting odds incorporate a profit margin and reflect underlying probabilities correctly, then this more aggressive approach loses more money and results in lower realized utility.","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142179034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Learning at university 大学学习
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12470
Gervas Huxley, Mike W. Peacey
{"title":"Learning at university","authors":"Gervas Huxley, Mike W. Peacey","doi":"10.1111/boer.12470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12470","url":null,"abstract":"Much of the economic literature on education models the process of acquiring human capital as a “black box.” While such models have many interesting uses, they are of little use when a student is considering how much teaching she needs and how her time at university is allocated between study and attending class. Considering such questions requires us to “open up” the black box. Our paper shows what one such model would look like by explicitly modeling how students choose to learn. We believe that this framework can inform the current debate about teaching in higher education.","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142179029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household assets and business cycle fluctuations 家庭资产和商业周期波动
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12469
Shogo Miura
{"title":"Household assets and business cycle fluctuations","authors":"Shogo Miura","doi":"10.1111/boer.12469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12469","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that an increase in the ratio of household assets to gross domestic product (GDP) predicts higher GDP growth in the short term, but lower growth in the long term. It is also associated with lower consumption, investment, and employment rates in the future. The result is robust to controlling for various economic indicators including credit spreads, household debt to GDP ratio, and leverage ratio. Finally, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that an increase in the interest rate is associated with a decrease in the household assets to GDP ratio, in contrast to the findings of Galí and Gambetti (2015, <jats:italic>American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics</jats:italic>, <jats:italic>7</jats:italic>(1), 233–257). This appears to support the conventional view of monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141942637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An empirical investigation of the mitigating effect of debt on overinvestment as shareholder rights vary 随着股东权益的变化，债务对过度投资的缓解作用的实证调查
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12471
Chune Young Chung, Daejin Kim, Junyoup Lee
{"title":"An empirical investigation of the mitigating effect of debt on overinvestment as shareholder rights vary","authors":"Chune Young Chung,&nbsp;Daejin Kim,&nbsp;Junyoup Lee","doi":"10.1111/boer.12471","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12471","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, we investigate the relationship between debt governance and overinvestment. We use net cash flows to debtholders as a proxy for debt governance and find that an increase in these cash flows mitigates firms' overinvestment. We also show that free cash flows lead cash-rich and cash-poor firms to overinvest but that debt governance attenuates this problem. Finally, we find that the mitigating effect of net cash flows to debtholders on overinvestment is highly pronounced in firms with poor governance. These findings suggest that net cash flows to debtholders are particularly effective when shareholder governance is weak. We conclude that cash flows to debtholders can effectively prevent overinvestment and reduce the agency costs of free cash flows.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 4","pages":"1126-1149"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141886120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A simple model of flexible working time arrangements 灵活工作时间安排的简单模式
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12464
Krzysztof Szczygielski
{"title":"A simple model of flexible working time arrangements","authors":"Krzysztof Szczygielski","doi":"10.1111/boer.12464","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12464","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We offer a simple formalization of different types of flexible working time arrangements. Specifically, we study the distinction between employee-oriented flexibility and employer-oriented flexibility. The formal framework we offer can be useful in formulating hypotheses for the growing body of empirical work in the area.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 4","pages":"1122-1125"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141743764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why the Feldstein–Horioka “puzzle” remains unsolved 费尔德斯坦-堀冈之 "谜 "为何仍未解开
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12466
Jesus Felipe, Scott Fullwiler, Al-Habbyel Yusoph
{"title":"Why the Feldstein–Horioka “puzzle” remains unsolved","authors":"Jesus Felipe,&nbsp;Scott Fullwiler,&nbsp;Al-Habbyel Yusoph","doi":"10.1111/boer.12466","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12466","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We argue that the 40-year-old Feldstein–Horioka “puzzle” should have never been labeled as such. We discuss two problems with the literature. First, we show that the series of investment and saving rates typically used in empirical exercises to test the Feldstein–Horioka thesis are not appropriate. The correct series to properly test it are not collected. Second, we show that the Feldstein–Horioka regression is not a model in the econometric sense, that is, an equation with a proper error term (a random variable). The reason is that by adding the capital account to their regression, one gets the accounting identity that relates the capital account, domestic investment, and domestic saving. This implies that the estimate of the coefficient of the saving rate in the Feldstein–Horioka regression can be thought of as a biased estimate of the same coefficient in the accounting identity, where it has a value of 1. Because the omitted variable is known, we call it <i>pseudo bias</i>. Given that this (pseudo) bias is known to be negative and less than 1 in absolute terms, it should come as no surprise that the Feldstein–Horioka regression yields a coefficient between 0 and 1.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 4","pages":"1094-1121"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141743765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal autonomy and public expenditure performance: Some panel-data evidence from Indian states 财政自治与公共支出绩效：来自印度各邦的面板数据证据
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12460
Avipsa Mohanty, Dinabandhu Sethi, Asit Ranjan Mohanty
{"title":"Fiscal autonomy and public expenditure performance: Some panel-data evidence from Indian states","authors":"Avipsa Mohanty,&nbsp;Dinabandhu Sethi,&nbsp;Asit Ranjan Mohanty","doi":"10.1111/boer.12460","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12460","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the impact of fiscal autonomy (FAP) on public expenditure performance across 18 Indian states from 2010–11 to 2019–20. We develop a measure of public expenditure performance using social indicators. We also measure FAP using revenue-expenditure ratio. Based on system generalized method of moments, the empirical result confirms that a higher FAP given to Indian states is associated with greater fiscal performance. Further, the robustness check reveals that central transfer insignificantly affects the expenditure performance of Indian states.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 4","pages":"1065-1093"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141743768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How rising housing prices affect labor costs in China: Heterogeneity and lagging 房价上涨如何影响中国劳动力成本：异质性和滞后性
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12468
Pengfei Yuan, Yunhui Cao
{"title":"How rising housing prices affect labor costs in China: Heterogeneity and lagging","authors":"Pengfei Yuan,&nbsp;Yunhui Cao","doi":"10.1111/boer.12468","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12468","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The impact of house prices rising on urban labor costs has typical heterogeneity and lag effects, but there is little literature on it. Based on the panel data of 283 prefecture level cities from 2001 to 2017, we constructed panel model considering lag effect and threshold effect. The results show that lag one period of housing price has significant positive impact on urban labor costs, with the increase of housing prices, the effect of pushing up the current labor costs is gradually increasing. So, this impact has obvious lag effect and threshold effect. Through grouped regression to test heterogeneity effect, at the regional level, the heterogeneity of the impact is more significant. The more developed the economy is, the greater the pushing effect of house prices on labor costs.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 4","pages":"1043-1064"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141650704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative easing and correlation dynamics in the aftermath of the Great Recession: A dynamic conditional correlation with exogenous variables approach 大衰退后的量化宽松和相关动态：带有外生变量的动态条件相关性方法
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12463
Luis Pablo de la Horra, Amadeus Gabriel, Gabriel A. Giménez Roche, Javier Perote
{"title":"Quantitative easing and correlation dynamics in the aftermath of the Great Recession: A dynamic conditional correlation with exogenous variables approach","authors":"Luis Pablo de la Horra,&nbsp;Amadeus Gabriel,&nbsp;Gabriel A. Giménez Roche,&nbsp;Javier Perote","doi":"10.1111/boer.12463","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12463","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Identifying the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on asset return correlations is critical to assessing such policies’ impact across financial markets. In this paper, we use a dynamic conditional correlation model that allows us to measure the impact of unconventional monetary policy on time-varying correlations. Our results suggest that QE significantly affected correlations between stocks and bonds after the Great Recession via short-term portfolio balance effects. The findings are critical for policy-makers and practitioners alike. Central banks should consider the impact of monetary policy on asset correlations in their cost–benefit analyses. Likewise, portfolio managers are encouraged to factor in the effects of monetary policy on correlations to optimize portfolios and reduce potential losses strategically.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 4","pages":"994-1006"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12463","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141609536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamics of automation in economic growth and the labor market 自动化对经济增长和劳动力市场的影响
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12465
Óscar Afonso
{"title":"Dynamics of automation in economic growth and the labor market","authors":"Óscar Afonso","doi":"10.1111/boer.12465","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12465","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study delves into the intricate dynamics of technology, labor markets, and economic growth within the context of Industry 4.0. By integrating automation capital into a dynamic general equilibrium model, we examine its implications for economic performance and social equity. The empirical analysis highlights the substitutability of unskilled labor by automation, revealing a nuanced relationship between automation adoption, the skill premium, and economic growth. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our findings suggest that a reduced ratio of unskilled to skilled labor, driven by automation, can lead to both an increase in the skill premium and sustained economic growth, even in the face of demographic challenges such as declining populations. However, this trend also exacerbates income inequality, underscoring the imperative for policy interventions aimed at promoting skill enhancement and ensuring equitable distribution of technological advancements.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"76 4","pages":"1007-1018"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141609537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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