Bulletin of Economic Research最新文献_第2页

Analyzing the Distributional Effect of Financial Inclusion on Wellbeing in Cameroon 分析喀麦隆普惠金融对福利的分配效应

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2026-10-06 Epub Date: 2026-05-25 DOI: 10.1111/boer.70060

Fiennasah Annif’ Akem, Ebenezer Lemven Wirba, Sakaria Angula Kalumbu

{"title":"Analyzing the Distributional Effect of Financial Inclusion on Wellbeing in Cameroon","authors":"Fiennasah Annif’ Akem, Ebenezer Lemven Wirba, Sakaria Angula Kalumbu","doi":"10.1111/boer.70060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.70060","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article examines the distributional implications of financial inclusion for welfare overall and by gender in Cameroon using 2017 FinScope data. The article employs the endogenous switching regression to evaluate the impact of financial inclusion on welfare at the mean and blends the inverse probability weighting with unconditional quantile regression for percentile-specific analysis. Results indicate that men have a higher probability of being financially included compared to women. We further observe that financially included individuals are expected to make welfare gains of about 11.6% with the impact higher among women compared to men. The unconditional quantile treatment effect analysis shows positive treatment effects across all percentiles, with men experiencing higher welfare impacts at lower and middle percentiles, whereas the impact is higher for women at the upper tail of the distribution. These results endorse policies fostering innovation in both public and private sectors to expand financial services, particularly for those vulnerable to poverty.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"78 4","pages":"869-886"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149100502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

High School GPA and Exam Scores: Does Their Relevance for First-Year Academic Performance Vary With Program Selectivity? 高中GPA和考试成绩：它们与第一年学习成绩的相关性是否随课程选择而变化？

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2026-10-06 Epub Date: 2026-04-10 DOI: 10.1111/boer.70053

Pedro Luis Silva, Carla Sá, Ricardo Biscaia

{"title":"High School GPA and Exam Scores: Does Their Relevance for First-Year Academic Performance Vary With Program Selectivity?","authors":"Pedro Luis Silva, Carla Sá, Ricardo Biscaia","doi":"10.1111/boer.70053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.70053","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines student admissions to higher education based on past performance, focusing on two measures: high school GPA and national exam scores. GPA is teacher-assigned and based on repeated assessments, while these exams are externally graded, one-off standardized tests. Using a nationwide dataset, we investigate how the relevance of these measures to the student's first-year performance in a higher educational program, and how it varies with that program's selectivity. Negative-binomial models show that a one-standard-deviation increase in GPA adds 5.9 first-year ECTS (European Credit Transfer System), versus 1.8 for the exam. In the most selective programs, the difference in the effects is larger, partly because (i) score dispersion within elite cohorts is smaller and (ii) selective programs require a higher number of subject-specific exams. We interpret these findings for potential revisions to admission policies, emphasising that high school GPA should not be regarded as the sole criterion for consideration.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"78 4","pages":"784-802"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.70053","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149099595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From Access to Usage: The Shifting Gender Gap in India's Financial Inclusion 从获取到使用：印度普惠金融中不断变化的性别差距

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2026-10-06 Epub Date: 2026-04-13 DOI: 10.1111/boer.70056

Pawan Ashok Kamble, Atul Mehta

引用次数: 0

Unconventional Monetary Policies and Consumer Consumption: The Role of Shadow Short Rates 非常规货币政策与消费者消费：影子短期利率的作用

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2026-10-06 Epub Date: 2026-04-25 DOI: 10.1111/boer.70058

Yaroslav Prokopets

{"title":"Unconventional Monetary Policies and Consumer Consumption: The Role of Shadow Short Rates","authors":"Yaroslav Prokopets","doi":"10.1111/boer.70058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.70058","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article examines the effectiveness of short-term interest rate indicators in predicting consumer consumption in the United States amidst a changing monetary policy landscape marked by unconventional monetary policies, such as near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing. The study explores whether the shadow short rate (SSR), derived from the shadow rate term structure model, can serve as a more robust and informative predictor by capturing the effects of unconventional policies. The analysis also incorporates monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) as an additional factor to account for its potential influence on consumption behavior. Utilizing the permanent income model as a theoretical framework, the study employs a nonlinear least squares model for the analysis. It analyses quarterly data from the United States from 1990 to 2019. The findings indicate that short-term interest rate indicators are less effective in predicting consumer consumption in the current economic environment, where unconventional monetary policies have influenced the relationship between interest rates and consumer consumption. In contrast, the SSR demonstrates a more consistent performance in predicting consumer consumption in the United States. The MPU coefficient is positive but statistically insignificant, suggesting limited direct impact in this context.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"78 4","pages":"845-856"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149100411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Demographics and the Welfare State—From One Crisis to the Next? 人口统计和福利国家——从一个危机到下一个危机？

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2026-10-06 Epub Date: 2026-05-12 DOI: 10.1111/boer.70059

Torben M. Andersen

{"title":"Demographics and the Welfare State—From One Crisis to the Next?","authors":"Torben M. Andersen","doi":"10.1111/boer.70059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.70059","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent demographic projections point to lower fertility rates, and in most countries below the reproduction level. This is widely perceived to add further burdens to already strained public finances due to increasing longevity and aging populations. The public finance implications of changes in fertility are analyzed considering intergenerational linkages arising via age dependencies in expenditures due to childcare and education for the young, and healthcare and pensions for the old, being largely financed by taxes levied on the working-age population. Evidence is shown that support to both the young and the old is quantitatively important in most countries, and this makes the response of public finances to fertility generally ambiguous. A decline in fertility triggers a dynamic process as the youth dependency falls on impact followed by a later increase in the old-age dependency ratio. The former improves and the latter deteriorates public finances, and hence an important budget dynamics is released, and the long-run budget effects are in general ambiguous. It is shown how the structure of the intergenerational compact matters for these responses, and hence the effects are generally country specific. A quantitative analysis for Denmark shows that lower fertility improves fiscal sustainability.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"78 4","pages":"857-868"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.70059","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149100078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

First Mover or Second Mover? Endogenous Timing With Partial Vertical Ownership 先行者还是后来者？部分垂直所有权的内生时机

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2026-10-06 Epub Date: 2026-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/boer.70051

Qing Hu, Tomomichi Mizuno

引用次数: 0

The Impact of Military Spending on Income Inequality 军费开支对收入不平等的影响

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2026-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1111/boer.70036

Shang-Fen Wu, Cheng-Te Lee

引用次数: 0

Can Social Security Fund Holdings Increase Corporate Real Investment?—Empirical Evidence From Listed Companies in China 社保基金持股能增加企业实物投资吗？——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2026-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1111/boer.70038

Long Tang, Jin Hu, Yanyan Zhao, Yuwei Chen, Yuanhua Zhou

{"title":"Can Social Security Fund Holdings Increase Corporate Real Investment?—Empirical Evidence From Listed Companies in China","authors":"Long Tang, Jin Hu, Yanyan Zhao, Yuwei Chen, Yuanhua Zhou","doi":"10.1111/boer.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.70038","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using data from A-share listed companies in China from 2010 to 2023, this paper examines the impact and mechanisms of Social Security Fund holdings on corporate real investment. The findings reveal that Social Security Fund holdings significantly increase corporate real investment, promoting the transition of enterprises from the financial sector to the real economy. Improved internal governance and enhanced external supervision of the held companies are the main mechanisms behind this effect. This effect varies significantly depending on the number of companies held by the Social Security Fund, the duration of holdings, agency costs, differences among auditing firms, and the nature of enterprise property rights. Other institutional investors' holdings do not promote an increase in corporate real investment. The Social Security Fund holdings have a stronger promoting effect on companies with insufficient real investment, and it can reduce investment in financial assets. This research holds significant implications for better leveraging the Social Security Fund to improve corporate governance, enhance external supervision, increase real investment, and promote the transition of enterprises from the financial sector to the real economy.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"78 3","pages":"541-558"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148522836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Note on Pollution Inertia and Endogenous Cycles in Ramsey Economies 拉姆齐经济中的污染惯性与内生周期研究

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2026-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1111/boer.70040

Estelle Campenet, David Desmarchelier

{"title":"A Note on Pollution Inertia and Endogenous Cycles in Ramsey Economies","authors":"Estelle Campenet, David Desmarchelier","doi":"10.1111/boer.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.70040","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The literature has pointed out that a limit cycle (Hopf bifurcation) can emerge near the steady state of a competitive Ramsey economy when a pollution externality sufficiently increases the marginal utility of consumption (the compensation effect). The literature has also emphasized that, when pollution originates from production, a necessary condition for a limit cycle to occur is that pollution behaves as a stock variable with strong inertia (i.e., low natural absorption). Interestingly, this condition is not highlighted in the literature when pollution arises from consumption. The objective of the present paper is to clarify this point: Is strong pollution inertia also necessary for a Hopf bifurcation to occur when pollution stems from consumption? To answer this question, we develop a competitive Ramsey economy in which a pollution externality arises from both production and consumption. By comparing the conditions under which a Hopf bifurcation occurs at the steady state when pollution comes solely from consumption and when it comes solely from production, we demonstrate that no restriction on pollution inertia is required when pollution arises exclusively from consumption. To explain this result, we emphasize the role of decreasing marginal productivity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"78 3","pages":"589-596"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148522869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Commodity Markets 非常规货币政策与商品市场

IF 1.2 4区经济学

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2026-07-07 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1111/boer.70037

Amine Ben Amar, Sadok Ben Amara, Jean-Etienne Carlotti, Mohammad Isleimeyyeh

{"title":"Unconventional Monetary Policy and Commodity Markets","authors":"Amine Ben Amar, Sadok Ben Amara, Jean-Etienne Carlotti, Mohammad Isleimeyyeh","doi":"10.1111/boer.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.70037","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study uses continuous wavelet tools to investigate the co-movement between US quantitative easing (QE) policy and commodity price indices. The findings show that commodity markets dynamics are interconnected, particularly during times of stress and high uncertainty. Conversely, the precious metals price index displays areas of weak power throughout the period studied (January 1999–March 2025). Although strong coherencies can appear at high frequencies in short-run cycles, they quickly shift toward low-frequency cycles during times of stress, underscoring the substantial contagion effect of the Federal Reserve's QE policy on commodity markets during such times. In the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, the Federal Reserve's QE initially drove commodity markets. However, the situation has since reversed, and the US QE policy has started to lag the dynamics of commodity markets. The findings also reveal that the influence of the US QE on precious metal markets has been rather modest. Since the first quarter of 2020, the co-movement between the US monetary policy and commodity markets, especially in the energy sector, has increased at high and medium frequency bands.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"78 3","pages":"597-612"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148533021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0