The effect of firm-level economic policy uncertainty on labor share: Empirical evidence from China

Abstract

In the 21st century, various unexpected events such as the financial crisis and COVID-19 have exacerbated the uncertainty of economic policies, whose influence, especially those at the firm level, on the labor share remains to be studied. This article constructs the firm-level economic policy uncertainty (FEPU) through text analysis and empirically analyzes its impact on labor share. Empirical evidence suggests that FEPU can significantly decrease labor share, particularly among firms with financing constraints, low productivity, and high market shares. And the results hold up after a series of robustness tests. Moreover, mechanism analysis indicates that precautionary saving motives play a crucial role in driving firms’ reduction in labor share rather than capital substitution motives. Finally, we further find that although FEPU harms the labor share, it significantly reduces executive payment and has no significant effect on the payment of ordinary employees, thus reducing within-firm inequality. This study enhances our comprehension of how economic policy uncertainty at the firm level affects firm behavior and provides theoretical and practical guidance for increasing labor share and employee welfare.