{"title":"Erdoğan and the Demise of the Secular Republic","authors":"M. Hakan Yavuz","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12790","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 4","pages":"151-156"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Security Challenges and US Values In the Middle East","authors":"Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12789","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 4","pages":"17-21"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142869118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Omran Omer Ali, Nazar Ameen Mohammed, Aurélie Broeckerhoff
{"title":"Demographic Change and Social Cohesion In Post-Islamic State Iraq","authors":"Omran Omer Ali, Nazar Ameen Mohammed, Aurélie Broeckerhoff","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12788","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Between 2014 and 2017, the Islamic State (ISIS) brutally ruled over a population of eight million in Iraq and Syria. The group systematically persecuted and murdered tens of thousands of people of minoritized ethnicities and destroyed their houses and heritage, schools and hospitals, resulting in the displacement of an estimated three to five million people. In this article, we analyze the ongoing impact of the ISIS occupation on social cohesion in Iraq. Our report is based on interviews conducted with community representatives in the Nineveh Plains of the country's northwest. We focus on the dynamics of displacement and return in historically Christian, Assyrian-majority areas during and since the occupation. Our findings show that people's everyday experiences and senses of community in Nineveh are intertwined with adjusting to the recent population changes, which have redrawn ethnic minority/majority relations. The research illustrates that demographic change—which we define as shifts in ethnic composition—is a relevant consideration for policies that seek to foster social cohesion in post-ISIS Iraq. More broadly, the article highlights how post-conflict policy making benefits from research conducted directly with conflict-affected populations, as it reflects communities’ experiences.</p>","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"133-150"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/mepo.12788","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Taliban-TTP Nexus And Pakistan's Rising Security Challenges","authors":"Shahid Ali, Raj Verma","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12787","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Why has the militant group Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) become a bigger threat to Pakistan since the Taliban's return to rule in Afghanistan? This article contends that the Taliban's determination to provide the TTP with sanctuary and support—including operational freedom and mobility, arms and ammunition, recruitment and military training, and financial and logistical assistance—has been the central factor behind the TTP's resurgence. The evidence demonstrates that the Taliban's unwillingness to disarm, demobilize, or evict the TTP from Afghanistan, even in the face of intensified pressure from Islamabad, has enhanced the TTP's material strength and resolve to overturn the Pakistani state. The group has therefore made uncompromising demands to establish an Islamic emirate or Sharia-compliant political order in Pakistan and reverse the merger of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The analysis indicates that gains by the TTP, and the group's allegiance to the Afghan Taliban, could undermine Pakistan's territorial integrity.</p>","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"151-166"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"In the Tunisian Opposition (Again): Ennahda's ‘Renaissance’ Through Failure?","authors":"Théo Blanc","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12786","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tunisian President Kais Saied's coup in July 2021 has confronted the Renaissance Party, or Ennahda, with a dilemma: Reassume the comfortable position of defending freedoms and maintain party unity, or implement internal reforms, including an overhaul of its leadership and platform. But the party is trapped in a vicious circle. The political context requires unity and is therefore not conducive to a messy process of internal change. However, reform is needed to restore Ennahda's relevance. The repression of Ennahda and imprisonment of its key leaders—including its president, Rached Ghannouchi—make it unlikely that the party's 11th congress, which had been due to take place in 2020, will ever be scheduled. This article examines Ennahda's ascent after the 2011 uprisings and its role both in the transition to democracy and in the events that led to Saied's takeover. It then analyzes critiques by current and former party officials to understand the internal debate over renewing the platform and installing fresh leadership. It also evaluates alternatives to the party, as it is likely to fade gradually. At stake for Tunisia more broadly is the representation of the conservative segment of the population and the return of a pluralist and competitive political scene.</p>","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 4","pages":"106-124"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/mepo.12786","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Power Plays in the Eastern Mediterranean And the Decline of US-Turkey Relations","authors":"Devrim Şahin","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12785","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12785","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the summer of 2020, Turkey and Greece deployed naval vessels in the contested eastern Mediterranean waters, which led first to a standoff and eventually a collision. Soon after, a US warship arrived at Crete. While this move should have been intended to calm tensions between the two historical rivals, some observers saw this as a show of support for Greece, marking a significant shift from the traditional American role of mediator. This article examines the US responses to gas exploration and other disputes in the eastern Mediterranean, including the Greek-Turkish divide over Cyprus. It argues that Washington's tilt toward Athens has been pushing Ankara to deepen its economic, diplomatic, and even military relations with Moscow. The United States could rebalance with Turkey and drive a wedge between it and Russia, for instance through incorporating its NATO ally into strategies for reducing Europe's reliance on President Vladimir Putin for energy resources. But if the current zero-sum approach persists, Turkey is likely to continue to look east—which is not in the American interest.</p>","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 4","pages":"125-139"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Local Participatory Development Models For Postwar Reconstruction in Yemen","authors":"Asher Orkaby, Afrah Al-Ahmadi","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12784","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The humanitarian crisis that has come to dominate public perception of Yemen since 2015 has left the country's social and civil infrastructure in major disrepair. Postwar recovery and reconstruction will be an essential component of long-term stability in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea subregions. The unchecked distribution of large sums of foreign aid to postwar Yemen has the potential to perpetuate the country's underlying political conflicts without substantively contributing to its much-needed economic development. Similarly, a top-down approach that privileges foreign donors is likely to encounter political and logistical obstacles and may end up devolving into a divisive patronage system. The solution to some of these obstacles may be found in localizing the distribution of development aid, which relies on existing networks in the reconstruction of economic infrastructure. Yemen's history of community-driven development can be the key to a sustainable post-conflict future.</p>","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"118-132"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Chinese Weaponry in Contemporary Middle Eastern Conflicts","authors":"Yingliang Jia, Amin Parto, Shabnam Dadparvar","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12782","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines the role of Chinese armaments in recent Middle Eastern conflicts, showing that although their use has increased over the past decade, they remain less numerous or significant compared to those from the United States and Russia. Chinese-made weapons have been used in conflicts in Gaza, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Lebanon due to affordability, streamlined procurement processes, and improved quality. China's critics have alleged that it has played a negative role in these conflicts through proliferation, claims that Beijing has consistently denied. This research investigates the accuracy of these charges and assesses whether China's role should be considered prominent. The study examines weapons that have been used in five ongoing regional conflicts, including the Gaza war. It finds that, unlike Washington and Moscow, which have deliberately transferred military equipment to the region, China has avoided intentionally directing armaments to Middle Eastern conflict zones. Instead, Chinese arms have been redistributed by third parties. The analysis concludes that China's strategy of balancing its relationships across states in conflict has limited the amount of its weapons in the region and kept the impact of those armaments to a minimum.</p>","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 4","pages":"37-55"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The US Strategic Shifts Necessary For Stability in the Middle East","authors":"Seyed Hossein Mousavian","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12783","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12783","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The combination of the October 7 attacks and Israel's retaliation in the Gaza Strip has brought the Middle East closer than ever to all-out war. While analysts focus on the long-running enmity between Tel Aviv and Tehran, this article contends that the region can move toward stability only with changes in US policy, especially toward Iran. Ending 40 years of hostile relations would not only help reduce the likelihood of a prolonged Israel-Iran war but also create the conditions necessary to resolve crises in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. The key is to revive the nuclear negotiations and move to a deal that can tamp down rivalries that threaten West Asian security. The author, who as an Iranian official participated in early rounds of nuclear talks in the early 2000s, analyzes the US-Iran rivalry, recommends how to move toward a nuclear-free region, and makes recommendations for shifts in American strategy.</p>","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 4","pages":"89-105"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Iran's Neighborhood Policy: Parameters, Objectives, and Obstacles","authors":"Mehran Kamrava, Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12781","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In April 2024, Iran launched its first-ever military strikes on Israeli soil. While the United States and its allies see Tehran as potentially stoking the Gaza war and spreading the conflict across the region, the Islamic Republic has actually drawn its neighbors closer and enjoys friendlier relations with them today than at nearly any point in its 45-year history. This rapprochement had been pursued informally by successive Iranian administrations since the late 1980s. However, it was formally adopted as the “good-neighbor policy” by President Ebrahim Raisi, who served from 2021 until his death in a May 2024 helicopter crash. Raisi's successor, Masoud Pezeshkian, has both the desire to continue the policy and a favorable regional environment within which to do so. Despite serious challenges, Iran has improved engagement with longtime rivals like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE. Even cross-border clashes with the Taliban in Afghanistan have been downplayed in favor of dialogue. Neighborly policies are impermanent. A number of structural and political obstacles could change Iran's calculations, but the approach is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.</p>","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 4","pages":"56-73"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}