Middle East Policy最新文献

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: Voices of Syria's New Leaders Hayat Tahrir al-Sham：叙利亚新领导人的声音

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12816

Rasim Koç

{"title":"Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: Voices of Syria's New Leaders","authors":"Rasim Koç","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12816","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12816","url":null,"abstract":"The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime ushered in a new era of political uncertainty and power struggles in Syria. This article examines competing visions for the country's future, drawing on extensive fieldwork conducted between August 2024 and January 2025 with Syrian refugees in Hatay, Turkey, and residents of Idlib, Syria. Through 123 discussions with activists, scholars, and members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), this study explores three central issues: the role of Islam in governance, how to create a new constitutional order, and the evolving national identity. The findings indicate that HTS, once a transnational jihadist movement, has shifted toward a nationalist Islamism rooted in Syria's sociopolitical fabric. The interviews highlight Syrians’ rejection of Iranian influence, aspirations for regional alliances, and pragmatic approaches to governance. The article further examines the geopolitical stakes, especially Turkey's strategic influence and the tensions with Kurdish factions. While the respondents hope for stability and self-governance, Syria's fragmented geography and ethnoreligious divisions pose challenges. The study concludes that the country's future hinges on reconciling competing political ideologies, securing regional support, and fostering a national identity capable of uniting its diverse population under a post-Assad order.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 2","pages":"83-97"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Gaza War and the Future Of the Abraham Accords 加沙战争和亚伯拉罕协议的未来

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12815

Mahmood Monshipouri, Manochehr Dorraj, John Fields

{"title":"The Gaza War and the Future Of the Abraham Accords","authors":"Mahmood Monshipouri, Manochehr Dorraj, John Fields","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12815","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12815","url":null,"abstract":"The Abraham Accords of 2020 represented new political dynamics in Middle Eastern diplomacy, as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan normalized relations with Israel without demanding a path toward Palestinian statehood. In the short term, the accords increased trade and cooperation on technology, but the larger security project of containing Iran remained a mission unaccomplished. Still, President Joe Biden, until his last days in power, tried desperately but failed to forge a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. We argue that the initial success of the Abraham Accords was achieved when Israel was wedded to maintaining the status quo. However, the destruction of Gaza, Israel's expansion into the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, and its major military confrontations with the Yemeni Houthis and Iran have inflamed Arab public opinion and escalated the costs of normalization for any regional state. The Biden administration's unwillingness to restrain the Netanyahu government and President Donald Trump's imperial designs on Gaza also raised alarms in regional capitals, which now see any moves toward expanding the Abraham Accords as daunting, at best.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 2","pages":"69-82"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Impact of Benjamin Netanyahu's Beliefs On Israel's War against the Axis of Resistance 本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的信仰对以色列反轴心国战争的影响

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12813

Emir Hadžikadunić, Marko Ćuže

引用次数: 0

Reagan: His Life and Legend By Max Boot. Liveright, 2024. 880 pages. $45, hardcover. 《里根：他的生活与传奇》，马克斯·布特著。Liveright, 2024年。880页。45美元,精装书。

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12817

A.R. Joyce

引用次数: 0

Lessons from the Syria-Hezbollah Criminal Syndicate, 1985–2005 叙利亚-真主党犯罪集团的教训，1985-2005

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12812

Iftah Burman, Yehuda Blanga

引用次数: 0

Military Reservists and the Resistance To Netanyahu's Legal Overhaul 预备役军人和对内塔尼亚胡法律改革的抵制

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12810

Guy Ziv

{"title":"Military Reservists and the Resistance To Netanyahu's Legal Overhaul","authors":"Guy Ziv","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12810","url":null,"abstract":"In the months before the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023, Israeli security officials warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that his pursuit of a judicial overhaul was undercutting the army's preparedness for war, rendering the country vulnerable to attack. The government, the most right-wing and religiously conservative in Israel's history, sought legal reforms that would weaken the Supreme Court, viewed by the reforms’ proponents as too powerful for an unelected body. For the hundreds of thousands of Israelis who weekly took to the streets in opposition for nine consecutive months, Netanyahu's coalition was on the verge of destroying Israeli democracy. Dozens of reserve fighter pilots, drone operators, and intelligence officers, along with hundreds of reservists in other elite units, joined the demonstrations and threatened not to show up for duty. The community of army reservists who had become active in the fight against the judicial overhaul emerged collectively as a gatekeeper of Israeli democracy, serving as a key check on elected officials’ illiberal moves. This article explains the genesis of the reservists’ ideals, examines the history of their involvement in domestic politics, and looks ahead to the role they may play as Israel emerges from the post-October 7 wars.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 2","pages":"33-50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Iran's Annus Horribilis in 2024: Beaten, but Not Defeated 2024年是伊朗的恐怖年：被打败了，但没有被打败

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12814

Thomas Juneau

{"title":"Iran's Annus Horribilis in 2024: Beaten, but Not Defeated","authors":"Thomas Juneau","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12814","url":null,"abstract":"Iran and the Axis of Resistance—the armed nonstate actors that it supports, plus the Assad regime in Syria—had a horrible 2024. Hamas and Hezbollah suffered heavy blows at the hands of Israel. Bashar al-Assad's Syria, the only state among the Islamic Republic's regional partners, collapsed in December. Tit-for-tat exchanges in April and October humiliatingly illustrated Iran's conventional military inferiority relative to Israel. And while the large-scale street protests in Iran that started in September 2022 had been largely repressed into silence, serious domestic discontent remained, a backdrop to its decaying regional posture. The Islamic Republic is not, however, on the verge of collapse. It retains control over a large, if diminished, pool of assets to pursue its influence throughout the region. Moreover, Yemen's Houthis were the sole Iranian partner to have a strong 2024, continuing their rise as a regional power. Hezbollah and Hamas have been weakened but are not dead, and it is not far-fetched to expect them to rise again, if not to their pre-2024 capacities. Iran, finally, has shown in the past, notably after the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Arab uprisings of 2011, that it can adapt and transform threats into opportunities.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 2","pages":"3-17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/mepo.12814","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144492634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Turkey's Long Game in Syria: Moving beyond Ascendance 土耳其在叙利亚的长期博弈：超越优势

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12807

Şaban Kardaş

{"title":"Turkey's Long Game in Syria: Moving beyond Ascendance","authors":"Şaban Kardaş","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12807","url":null,"abstract":"Bashar al-Assad's shocking ouster in December 2024 has led to debate about whether Turkey is now ascendant in the region. This article examines the multifaceted trajectory of Turkey's involvement in the Syrian civil war and provides insights into the challenges ahead. It first traces Turkey's evolving positions throughout the Syrian crisis, highlighting its moves during critical junctures. It argues that Ankara shaped the conflict by transforming its strategic thinking, abandoning the agenda of regime change and instead prioritizing its self-interest and national security. This required internalizing costs and exercising strategic patience, flexibility, and pragmatism. Next, the article examines how, through difficult adjustments between 2015 and 2020, Turkey managed to create an unstable equilibrium on the ground. It then analyzes patterns of Ankara's engagement with the new Syria, in which it plays three interrelated roles: enabler, state builder, and protector. As for whether Turkey has “won” the war, the article discusses its advantages and challenges. While the official Turkish approach has been cautious, the final section argues that Ankara should avoid a patron-client relationship with the new administration in Damascus and forge the appropriate regional and international alignments. This can be ensured through a “sphere of interest” policy.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"22-37"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/mepo.12807","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Saudi Arabia and Iran: Spoilers or Enablers of Conflict? 沙特阿拉伯和伊朗：冲突的搅局者还是推动者？

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12808

Banafsheh Keynoush

{"title":"Saudi Arabia and Iran: Spoilers or Enablers of Conflict?","authors":"Banafsheh Keynoush","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12808","url":null,"abstract":"Saudi Arabia and Iran played roles, inadvertently or not, in enabling the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel in October 2023. Before the war that ensued, Tehran aided and funded Hamas and its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades. Riyadh shunned the group by arresting and extraditing its members in a bid to join the US-backed Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel, a move that could lead to alliances to contain Iran. The Hamas assault thwarted the Saudi-Israeli normalization plans, at least in the short term, and gave Iran a chance to engage with the kingdom. The Islamic Republic urged Saudi Arabia to spoil the war by supporting a quick ceasefire, which could have enabled Hamas to regroup when Israeli forces advanced into Gaza. This article shows that the niche diplomacy to halt the fighting exposed the lurking rivalries and limited capabilities of Iran and Saudi Arabia. By not seeking a permanent solution to build peace or subvert the cyclical nature of the most enduring conflict in the Middle East, between Israel and Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Iran were sidelined by the United States when it built the first phase of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by mid-January 2025.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"38-53"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The China Factor in US-Saudi Talks for a Defense Pact 美沙防务协议谈判中的中国因素

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12806

Ghulam Ali, Peng Nian

引用次数: 0