Middle East Policy最新文献

Turkey's Long Game in Syria: Moving beyond Ascendance 土耳其在叙利亚的长期博弈：超越优势

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12807

Şaban Kardaş

{"title":"Turkey's Long Game in Syria: Moving beyond Ascendance","authors":"Şaban Kardaş","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12807","url":null,"abstract":"Bashar al-Assad's shocking ouster in December 2024 has led to debate about whether Turkey is now ascendant in the region. This article examines the multifaceted trajectory of Turkey's involvement in the Syrian civil war and provides insights into the challenges ahead. It first traces Turkey's evolving positions throughout the Syrian crisis, highlighting its moves during critical junctures. It argues that Ankara shaped the conflict by transforming its strategic thinking, abandoning the agenda of regime change and instead prioritizing its self-interest and national security. This required internalizing costs and exercising strategic patience, flexibility, and pragmatism. Next, the article examines how, through difficult adjustments between 2015 and 2020, Turkey managed to create an unstable equilibrium on the ground. It then analyzes patterns of Ankara's engagement with the new Syria, in which it plays three interrelated roles: enabler, state builder, and protector. As for whether Turkey has “won” the war, the article discusses its advantages and challenges. While the official Turkish approach has been cautious, the final section argues that Ankara should avoid a patron-client relationship with the new administration in Damascus and forge the appropriate regional and international alignments. This can be ensured through a “sphere of interest” policy.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"22-37"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/mepo.12807","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Saudi Arabia and Iran: Spoilers or Enablers of Conflict? 沙特阿拉伯和伊朗：冲突的搅局者还是推动者？

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12808

Banafsheh Keynoush

{"title":"Saudi Arabia and Iran: Spoilers or Enablers of Conflict?","authors":"Banafsheh Keynoush","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12808","url":null,"abstract":"Saudi Arabia and Iran played roles, inadvertently or not, in enabling the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel in October 2023. Before the war that ensued, Tehran aided and funded Hamas and its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades. Riyadh shunned the group by arresting and extraditing its members in a bid to join the US-backed Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel, a move that could lead to alliances to contain Iran. The Hamas assault thwarted the Saudi-Israeli normalization plans, at least in the short term, and gave Iran a chance to engage with the kingdom. The Islamic Republic urged Saudi Arabia to spoil the war by supporting a quick ceasefire, which could have enabled Hamas to regroup when Israeli forces advanced into Gaza. This article shows that the niche diplomacy to halt the fighting exposed the lurking rivalries and limited capabilities of Iran and Saudi Arabia. By not seeking a permanent solution to build peace or subvert the cyclical nature of the most enduring conflict in the Middle East, between Israel and Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Iran were sidelined by the United States when it built the first phase of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by mid-January 2025.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"38-53"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The China Factor in US-Saudi Talks for a Defense Pact 美沙防务协议谈判中的中国因素

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12806

Ghulam Ali, Peng Nian

引用次数: 0

How to Address the Saudi Nuclear Program? An Israeli Dilemma 如何解决沙特核计划问题？以色列进退两难

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12802

Niv Farago

{"title":"How to Address the Saudi Nuclear Program? An Israeli Dilemma","authors":"Niv Farago","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12802","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12802","url":null,"abstract":"Normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is part of a three-way negotiation that would allow the United States to prevent further erosion of its regional standing and to contain Iran. However, Israeli politicians and security experts object to the potential deal's allowing a Saudi route to military nuclear capabilities. They criticize the Netanyahu government for failing to require conditioning US-Saudi nuclear cooperation on the kingdom's agreement to forgo the domestic enrichment and reprocessing of nuclear fuel. Such processes, if misused, could yield military-grade fissile material. I argue that Israeli experts are wrong to assume Riyadh has no alternatives to nuclear cooperation with the United States and should rethink their stances against enrichment and reprocessing in Saudi Arabia, even in American-run facilities. Rejecting this option could benefit China and Russia, which have already proposed building Saudi Arabia's first nuclear power plant. Unlike Washington, Beijing and Moscow may not force the Saudis to accept restrictions beyond their obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and give up their right to domestic enrichment and reprocessing. To support my argument, I examine the US-Iran nuclear dialogue of the 1970s, China's and Russia's proliferation policies, Saudi-Pakistani relations, and the Atomic Energy Act—elements upon which Israeli experts base their claims.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"74-89"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Negotiating the Impossible? A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East 谈判不可能？中东无大规模杀伤性武器区

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12803

Robert Mason

引用次数: 0

Out of Proportion: Israel's Paradox In China's Middle Eastern Policy 不成比例：以色列在中国中东政策中的悖论

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12794

Yitzhak Shichor

{"title":"Out of Proportion: Israel's Paradox In China's Middle Eastern Policy","authors":"Yitzhak Shichor","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12794","url":null,"abstract":"After Hamas's brutal October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, China appeared to side with the Islamists, as if its relationship with the Jewish state had deteriorated beyond repair. This was accompanied by an officially inspired wave of antisemitism and votes against Israel at the United Nations. Within a few months, however, the Chinese began to tone down their response and to repair what has become an important component in their Middle East policy. Israel was the first Middle Eastern government to recognize the People's Republic, though no diplomatic relations were established between the two until January 1992. The long delay was caused by Beijing's cultivation of ties with the Arab and Muslim worlds, which required enmity toward Israel. This had been expected to be a limited partnership. However, as this article shows, Israel has played a major role in China's regional strategy, somewhat in politics but much more in economic growth, defense modernization, technology, and innovation. In relative and, in some areas, absolute terms, Israel has proved to be as important to China as other regional states, and it has often won, implicitly and even explicitly, Beijing's appreciation—out of all proportion.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"54-73"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/mepo.12794","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Biden's Gaza Failure, the Syrian Revolution, And the Folly of US Middle East Policy 拜登的加沙失败，叙利亚革命，以及美国中东政策的愚蠢

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12797

A.R. Joyce

引用次数: 0

Myth Busting in a Post-Assad Syria 后阿萨德时代的叙利亚打破神话

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12799

Rob Geist Pinfold

引用次数: 0

The Israel-Hamas War One Year Later: Mass Violence and Palestinian Dispossession 一年后的以色列-哈马斯战争：大规模暴力和巴勒斯坦人的一无所有

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12792

M.T. Samuel

引用次数: 0

The ‘Iran Card’ in Russian Foreign Policy 俄罗斯外交政策中的“伊朗牌

IF 0.6 4区社会学

Middle East Policy Pub Date : 2024-12-08 DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12791

Hamed Mousavi, Arteman Rad Goudarzi

{"title":"The ‘Iran Card’ in Russian Foreign Policy","authors":"Hamed Mousavi, Arteman Rad Goudarzi","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12791","url":null,"abstract":"Since the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Tehran and Moscow have increased their collaboration. Iran supported Russia's war in Ukraine, believing that it would weaken the Americans, reduce the effects of sanctions, and benefit its battered economy. Similarly, Russia sought to use Iran as a tool to challenge US influence in the region. However, the authors contend, the costs and benefits have been asymmetrical: While Moscow has gained strategic advantages at minimal expense, the Islamic Republic has borne substantial geopolitical burdens. This study explores the evolution of Iran-Russia relations and assesses the implications for both countries in their conflicts with the United States. It analyzes their cooperation on the wars in Syria and Ukraine, showing that Tehran has been compelled to act in Moscow's interests but has not always received the same support. This has come into sharp relief since the beginning of Israel's war on Gaza, as Iran has faced attacks on its allies and on its own territory. To defend itself and its interests, it needs advanced military equipment, which the Russians have yet to provide. The evidence indicates that Iran's reliance on Russia has led to more harm than benefit.","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":"31 4","pages":"74-88"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0