After Assad: How Russia Is Losing the Middle East

Abstract

Russia's military and diplomatic victories in Syria once appeared to cement its status as a dominant power in the Middle East. However, the swift collapse of the Assad regime exposed cracks in Moscow's regional and global credibility. Our analysis reveals that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's downfall delivers a triple blow—strategic, reputational, and domestic. Strategically, it dismantles Russia's foothold in the Middle East, jeopardizing its access to facilities and weakening its ability to challenge Western influence. Reputationally, Russia's failure to protect a key ally has damaged its image as a reliable partner and raises doubts among regional actors about its ability to provide security and safeguard friendly regimes. Domestically, Assad's ouster undermines the foundation of President Vladimir Putin's legitimacy, which relies in part on asserting Russia's international standing. This loss, compounded by the ongoing war in Ukraine, international sanctions, and resource limitations, weakens Russia's ability to maintain its presence and power in the Middle East, further demonstrated by its inability to support Iran as it faced attacks by Israel and the United States. The collapse of the Assad regime thus signals a decisive shift, likely relegating Russia to a marginal role in regional geopolitics.