The Perils of Nuclear Talks After the US-Israel War on Iran

Abstract

In June 2025, Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, military commanders and scientists, and civilian areas, with assistance from the United States—Washington's first foray into conventional warfare against the Islamic Republic. This triggered debates in Iran about the merits of a weapons-grade atomic program. This study contends that Iranian elites have historically sought to maintain a fluid scheme that lacks easily enforceable nonproliferation parameters, using negotiations and the threat of conflict to buy time and build up the nuclear program. Despite setbacks from the June war, Tehran is continuing this strategy and holding onto power against pressure from the United States. The article examines Iran's moves since the war and its demands in the early stages of revived negotiations. It then probes the history of the nuclear crisis to determine lessons that should inform future talks. Ultimately, though this is unlikely, peaceful ties will require Washington to rebalance its approach. The Trump administration and its successors will have to consider incentives for Iran's elites to channel their preference for regime survival into a greater openness toward the West. Otherwise, US-Iran relations will remain conflictual.