The June 2025 Israeli War: Iran's Assessment and Regional Consequences

Abstract

In June 2025, Iran and Israel engaged in their first direct war. Unlike the two confrontations of the previous year, this conflict began with an Israeli attack on Iranian territory. The intensity and duration of the fighting, and the types of weapons used, were unprecedented and unpredictable. Both sides claimed victory: Israel and the United States cited a setback of Iran's nuclear program by at least one year, as well as uncertainty over whether it will ever succeed. Iran took pride in its ability to strike Israeli military bases and research centers, despite the multilayered air-defense systems and the assistance Israel received from its allies. The situation remains fragile, as no peace agreement, or even ceasefire, has been signed, and both sides are preparing for the next round. What they once pursued covertly will likely unfold far more transparently in the future, with consequences for both countries, the broader region, and the world. This article analyzes the causes, objectives, and consequences of the war, drawing on first-hand sources, including official reports published in Iranian media and press outlets. Interviews with political, security, military, and technical experts, plus confidential government sources, are used to critically assess these reports.