The Impact of Benjamin Netanyahu's Beliefs On Israel's War against the Axis of Resistance

Abstract

This article contends that Benjamin Netanyahu's cognitive beliefs, especially about the self and about Israel's adversaries, have shaped his approach to the conflicts with Hamas and the broader Axis of Resistance. Analyzing evidence from the first year of the post-October 7 wars, the study pinpoints how these beliefs informed the strategies he deemed most effective. More important, it examines how Netanyahu's actions were determined by the subjective game he believed Israel was playing, as understood through the frameworks of classical and sequential game theories. Employing methodological and theoretical innovations like the verbs in context system, the theory of inferences about preferences, and the theory of moves, the study creates quantitative indicators of three operational-code beliefs held by the prime minister after the deadly Hamas attacks. It then compares these indicators with a norming group to determine how cognitive biases played a role in the prosecution of Israel's wars.