Iran's Annus Horribilis in 2024: Beaten, but Not Defeated

IF 1.1 4区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES
Thomas Juneau
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Iran and the Axis of Resistance—the armed nonstate actors that it supports, plus the Assad regime in Syria—had a horrible 2024. Hamas and Hezbollah suffered heavy blows at the hands of Israel. Bashar al-Assad's Syria, the only state among the Islamic Republic's regional partners, collapsed in December. Tit-for-tat exchanges in April and October humiliatingly illustrated Iran's conventional military inferiority relative to Israel. And while the large-scale street protests in Iran that started in September 2022 had been largely repressed into silence, serious domestic discontent remained, a backdrop to its decaying regional posture. The Islamic Republic is not, however, on the verge of collapse. It retains control over a large, if diminished, pool of assets to pursue its influence throughout the region. Moreover, Yemen's Houthis were the sole Iranian partner to have a strong 2024, continuing their rise as a regional power. Hezbollah and Hamas have been weakened but are not dead, and it is not far-fetched to expect them to rise again, if not to their pre-2024 capacities. Iran, finally, has shown in the past, notably after the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Arab uprisings of 2011, that it can adapt and transform threats into opportunities.

2024年是伊朗的恐怖年:被打败了,但没有被打败
伊朗和抵抗轴心国(由其支持的非国家武装力量)以及叙利亚的阿萨德政权度过了一个可怕的2024年。哈马斯和真主党遭受了以色列的沉重打击。巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)领导的叙利亚是伊朗伊斯兰共和国地区伙伴中唯一的国家,去年12月垮台。4月和10月针锋相对的交锋羞辱地表明,伊朗在常规军事上相对于以色列的劣势。虽然始于2022年9月的伊朗大规模街头抗议活动基本上被压制成沉默,但严重的国内不满情绪仍然存在,这是伊朗在地区地位日益衰落的背景。然而,这个伊斯兰共和国并没有濒临崩溃。它仍然控制着大量的资产,以追求其在整个地区的影响力。此外,也门胡塞武装是伊朗2024年唯一拥有强大实力的伙伴,继续作为地区大国崛起。真主党(Hezbollah)和哈马斯(Hamas)已经被削弱,但并没有消亡,期待它们再次崛起(如果不是恢复到2024年之前的实力)也并非遥不可及。最后,伊朗在过去已经表明,特别是在2003年美国入侵伊拉克和2011年阿拉伯起义之后,它能够适应并将威胁转化为机遇。
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来源期刊
Middle East Policy
Middle East Policy Multiple-
CiteScore
0.70
自引率
20.00%
发文量
49
期刊介绍: The most frequently cited journal on the Middle East region in the field of international affairs, Middle East Policy has been engaging thoughtful minds for more than 25 years. Since its inception in 1982, the journal has been recognized as a valuable addition to the Washington-based policy discussion. Middle East Policy provides an influential forum for a wide range of views on U.S. interests in the region and the value of the policies that are supposed to promote them.
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