The Gaza War and the Future Of the Abraham Accords

Abstract

The Abraham Accords of 2020 represented new political dynamics in Middle Eastern diplomacy, as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan normalized relations with Israel without demanding a path toward Palestinian statehood. In the short term, the accords increased trade and cooperation on technology, but the larger security project of containing Iran remained a mission unaccomplished. Still, President Joe Biden, until his last days in power, tried desperately but failed to forge a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. We argue that the initial success of the Abraham Accords was achieved when Israel was wedded to maintaining the status quo. However, the destruction of Gaza, Israel's expansion into the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, and its major military confrontations with the Yemeni Houthis and Iran have inflamed Arab public opinion and escalated the costs of normalization for any regional state. The Biden administration's unwillingness to restrain the Netanyahu government and President Donald Trump's imperial designs on Gaza also raised alarms in regional capitals, which now see any moves toward expanding the Abraham Accords as daunting, at best.