{"title":"Shaping the Size of Nations: A Test of the Determinants of Secessions","authors":"Marvin Suesse","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2877151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2877151","url":null,"abstract":"Little is known about the empirical determinants of state formation and dissolution, despite a rich theoretical literature on the subject. This paper attempts to fill that gap by treating the dissolution of the Soviet Union as a historical experiment in state breakup. I exploit regional variation in separatist protests across the 184 provinces of the Union to measure a demand for secession. This allows for a test of economic theories predicting that the incentive to secede should be determined by the trade-off between the cost of public goods provision and preference heterogeneity. I find strong evidence for the existence of this trade-off in shaping demand for secession. Similarly, I find that economic theory is to some extent able to predict the extent to which regional elites are actually pursuing a separatist policy. However, I also show that the popular demand for secession had little causal effect on actual separatist policy once exogenous variation in the propensity to protest is taken into account.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128903729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Suzi Mirgani, M. Zayani, Fatima El Issawi, N. Hamdy, Dina Matar, M. Kraidy, Joe F. Khalil, Abeer A Alnajjar, Zahera Harb, Philip M. Seib
{"title":"Media and Politics in the Wake of the Arab Uprisings Summary Report","authors":"Suzi Mirgani, M. Zayani, Fatima El Issawi, N. Hamdy, Dina Matar, M. Kraidy, Joe F. Khalil, Abeer A Alnajjar, Zahera Harb, Philip M. Seib","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2844681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2844681","url":null,"abstract":"1. Introduction : The State of Arab Media in the Wake of the Arab Uprisings \u0000Suzi Mirgani, Center for International and Regional Studies, Georgetown University \u0000School of Foreign Service in Qatar \u0000Part I: Arab Media in Transition \u00002. On the Entangled Question of Media and Politics in the Middle East \u0000Mohamed Zayani, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar \u00003. A Comparative Analysis of Traditional Media Industry Transitions in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt \u0000Fatima el Issawi, London School of Economics and Political Science \u00004. The Culture of Arab Journalism \u0000Naila Hamdy, American University in Cairo \u0000Part II: Space and the Cultural Production of Arab Media \u00005. Narratives and the Syrian Uprising: The Role of Stories in Political Activism and Identity Struggles \u0000Dina Matar, SOAS, University of London \u00006. Public Space, Street Art, and Communication in the Arab Uprisings \u0000Marwan M. Kraidy, University of Pennsylvania \u00007. Change and Continuity in Arab Media: A Political Economy of Media Cities \u0000Joe Khalil, Northwestern University in Qatar \u0000Part III: Media, State Interests, and Non-State Actors \u00008. Framing Political Islam: Media Tropes and Power Struggles in Revolutionary Egypt \u0000Abeer AlNajjar, American University of Sharjah \u00009. Hezbollah, Al Manar, and the Arab Revolts: Defiance or Survival? \u0000Zahera Harb, City University London \u000010. U.S. Public Diplomacy and the Media in the Middle East \u0000Philip Seib, University of Southern California","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"218 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134312496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Intrastate Ethnic Conflicts and External State Support of Ethnic Minorities in East Asia: Theoretical Perspectives","authors":"E. Soboleva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2683992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2683992","url":null,"abstract":"Most states in East Asia (Northeast and Southeast Asia) are ethnically diverse and have experienced or are currently experiencing ethnic conflict. Although, intrastate ethnic conflicts are in the domain of domestic politics, they often become “internationalized”, when an external state becomes involved. How can the difference in the behaviour of East Asian states regarding intrastate ethnic conflicts in other states of the region be explained? Scholars of international relations (IR) have come up with a variety of explanatory factors for a state’s decision whether to intervene. This paper presents an overview of the major theories and evaluates their explanatory power for IR in East Asia after the end of Cold War. The results presented in this paper lay the groundwork for the future qualitative empirical research.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128424023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Climate Change and Civil Unrest: Evidence from the El Niño Southern Oscillation","authors":"Daniel L. Hicks, Beatriz Maldonado","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2666703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2666703","url":null,"abstract":"A growing body of research connects short-run deviations in temperature and precipitation with violence. Less well understood is the extent to which these studies are representative of the impacts of global climate change. We follow the approach of Hsiang, Meng, and Cane (2011, Science) in using the existing climactic forces of El Nino and La Nina to analyze the potential consequences of climate change. We show that these events are strongly associated with subsequent periods of elevated social unrest. The effects we document are especially pronounced for Latin America which is particularly vulnerable both to existing climactic cycles and to projected climate change. Climate forces strongly influence the onset and frequency of government crises and anti-government demonstrations in Latin America specifically, suggesting a critical need to further develop political and social infrastructure to cope with these evolving challenges.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128024829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do Economic and Political Institutions Mitigate the Risk of Natural Resource Conflicts?","authors":"Colin O’Reilly, Ryan H. Murphy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2572761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2572761","url":null,"abstract":"Despite repeated attempts to model conflict as contests over rent, few researchers have found a persuasive identification strategy to test these models. However, Lei and Michaels (2014) find that exogenous discoveries of “giant” oil fields are in fact associated with increased likelihood of violent conflict. Surprisingly, they do not find any evidence that political decision rules mitigate the effect of natural resource discoveries on the instance of conflict. This paper re-estimates Lei and Michaels’ model to test if their result is dependent on the institutional environment that prevailed at the time of the oil discovery. Results indicate that for conflicts over control of territory, strong economic and political institutions reduce the likelihood of conflict in the wake of the discovery of oil. This empirical finding is consistent with basic theoretical models of violent conflict.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"186 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121051441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Hutu-Tutsi Conflict in Burundi: A Critical Exploration of Factors","authors":"M. Saidi, Talibu Oladimeji","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2689413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2689413","url":null,"abstract":"The scenario of genocidal war that broke out in 1994 in Burundi and Rwanda is the worst of its kind that ever happened on the African continent. The war broke out between the two major ethnic groups, Hutu and Tutsi, in Rwanda and Burundi which led to the death of over 800,000 people in both countries. The failure of the international community, the regional body and the East African Community, to instantaneously intervene to prevent the genocide war has been given scholarly attention by scholars whereas the main factors behind the outbreak of the war have not been properly delved into. Given the currency of the issue in the East African region, the article examines those factors that have given rise to the Hutu-Tutsi conflict in Burundi. It seeks to provide an analytical framework upon which the conflict can be understood. In this way, the article presents Burundi as a case study. It is believed that understanding Burundi scenario can shed light on those factors that led to the war in both Burundi and Rwanda. In doing this, we rely on existing works and documents of which we employed content analysis to critically interpret.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126250816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Competitive Intervention and the Angolan Civil War, 1975–1991","authors":"N. Anderson","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2593886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2593886","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter examines external intervention in the Angolan civil war between 1975 and 1991. I argue that while “winning” was undoubtedly the primary objective for the Angolan government led by the Movimento Popular de Libertacao de Angola (MPLA) and for its rebel challengers in Uniao Nacional para a Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA), fears of uncontrolled escalation led competitive interveners – on one side, Cuba and the USSR, and on the other, South Africa and the US – to constrain the form and scope of their interventions. Strategic restraint was manifest in distinctions between advisory and combat missions, geographic areas of operation, adopted force postures, and target selection. In effect, the need to avoid uncontrolled escalation generated a set of interventions on the part of South Africa and the US that aimed to sustain the rebel insurgency rather than propel it to victory, and a corresponding set of interventions on the part of Cuba and the USSR that aimed to prevent the dislodging of the Angolan government rather than end the civil war. This resulted in a decades-long conflict that inflicted hundreds of thousands of deaths, displaced millions, and decimated economic and political institutions across the country.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116120971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Income Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria","authors":"Babatunde O. Abidoye, M. Calì","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-7213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7213","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper examines the relationship between income shocks and conflict across Nigerian states over the 2000s. By matching consumption, production, commodity prices and conflict data, the analysis captures two opposite channels linking agricultural price changes to conflict. Consistently with the opportunity cost mechanism of conflict, price increases of commodities produced by the households have a conflict-reducing effect, while the opposite is true for prices of consumed commodities. The net impact turns out to be conflict inducing in contrast with most of the related literature that focuses on the production side of agricultural price shocks. These results underscore the importance of modelling both production and consumption effects to get consistent estimates of the impact of price changes on conflict.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132442850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Institutions, Repression and the Spread of Protest","authors":"Mehdi Shadmehr, Raphael Boleslavsky","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2731749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2731749","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the strategic interactions between a state that decides whether to repress a group of activists and the general public that decides whether to protest following repression. Strategic complementarities between the strategies of the public and the state generate multiple equilibria, suggesting a role for social norms. These results shed light on conflicting empirical findings regarding the determinants of repression. We investigate the effects of exogenous restrictions, imposed by international institutions, showing that weak restrictions can paradoxically increase repression. This result provides a rationale for the puzzling empirical finding that international pressure can increase repression. Finally, we study the effects of endogenous restrictions, imposed by domestic institutions set up by the state to restrict its own subsequent repression. We characterize when the state can benefit from introducing such institutions, offering an explanation for the presence of partially independent judiciaries in authoritarian regimes.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115780077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Long-Term Effects of Political Violence on Political Attitudes: Evidence from the Spanish Civil War","authors":"Daniel Oto�?Peralías","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2597118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2597118","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates whether political violence has long-term effects on attitudes toward political participation. This is an interesting topic because public engagement and social capital play a crucial role in shaping the economy and democracy. We exploit a recent survey on the 1936-1939 Spanish Civil War to shed light on this question. Our findings indicate that being a member of a family that suffered violence during the Civil War is related to a higher interest, knowledge and engagement in politics. These results stand in stark contrast to the common expectation that political violence leads to lower public engagement, while they are consistent with other studies focusing on the short-term consequences of civil conflicts. Therefore, the legacy of political violence, far from creating political apathy, may be the higher involvement of citizens in politics.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128109526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}