Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal最新文献

{"title":"A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement","authors":"Maria Elvira Guerra-Cujar, M. Prem, P. Rodriguez-Lesmes, Juan F. Vargas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3695131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3695131","url":null,"abstract":"Violent environments affect household fertility choices, demand for health services and health outcomes of newborns. Using administrative data from Colombia and a difference-in-differences strategy, we study how the end of the 5-decade long conflict with the FARC insurgency affected fertility outcomes in areas traditionally affected by FARC’s violence relative to the rest of the country. We find that, after the start of a permanent ceasefire in December 2014, Colombia’s secular reduction of the total fertility rate slowed down in treated municipalities. In particular, the aggregate fertility rate differentially increased in these areas by 2.6 percent. The differential increase in fertility rates is larger in municipalities with higher levels of landmine victims and expelled internally displaced people at baseline, and it is not driven by the behavior of any particular age-specific fertility rate. We interpret this evidence as consistent with an increased optimism to raise children in a better environment.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133724473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sectarian Aid, Sanctions and Subnational Development","authors":"Cemal Eren Arbatlı, David Gomtsyan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3798717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3798717","url":null,"abstract":"Hezbollah, a Shia Islamist political party and militant group based in Lebanon, receives a significant amount of funding from Iran. In this paper we evaluate whether Iranian aid to Hezbollah and Western sanctions against Iran have had any economically meaningful effects on subnational development in Lebanon. Since informal aid is not observed, we take a reduced-form approach and use the changes in oil rents of Iran over the years as a plausibly exogenous driver of such aid. Studying the 1993-2010 period, we find an economically significant and robust relationship between Iranian oil windfalls and nighttime lights. Consistent with the sectarian bias in Hezbollah's spending, this relationship is significantly stronger in areas with greater concentration of Shia population. We also find evidence that nighttime lights are relatively lower in Shia areas than elsewhere during periods when sanctions against Iran intensified. These results attest to the non-negligible developmental effects of informal aid as well as how economic sanctions against donors might offset such effects.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"12 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125742541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State Disengagement: Evidence from Former French West Africa","authors":"Richard J. McAlexander, Joan Ricart-Huguet","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3571025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3571025","url":null,"abstract":"How do states respond to political resistance? The standard repression or concession logic presumes that the state is strong enough to punish or co-opt dissent effectively. Instead, we argue that the state may disengage when it is weak. We show that colonial governments in French West Africa reduced public investments in districts where chiefs engaged in largely non-violent disobedience. However, we also show that chieftain disobedience reduced government taxes and fees on Africans, rather than increased them as punishment. Because the state was too weak to punish with higher taxation or to concede by increasing investments, the state disengaged in hard-to-rule districts. Our findings show that chieftain resistance helps explain why subnational development was so unequal during colonialism. Low-level and non-violent resistance, often overlooked in the conflict literature, also affect state-society relations and state formation.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123317350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategy in Secession Games","authors":"Kristopher W. Ramsay, I. Prezelj","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3664976","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3664976","url":null,"abstract":"Many factors influence the onset and outcome of secessionist movements. We argue that before greed, grievance, opportunity, internal politics, or the international system can matter, potential secessionists must have a credible exit option, and in particular unilaterally exit by force. In this article we create a bargaining model of secession that incorporates this insight and allows us to organize a wide variety of existing explanations for separatist politics into a single theoretical framework where military capabilities, policy preferences and the possibility of a negotiated settlement play central roles. We find that policy polarization increases the intensity of fighting, the decisiveness of military means to suppress the secessionists determines the likelihood of a peaceful solution, and that even with complete information policy differences can drive the secessionists and the central government to war. We consider the role of international actors in secession and explore how they can affect secession outcomes.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"329 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122817422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategic Interdependence in Political Movements and Countermovements","authors":"Anselm Hager, Lukas Hensel, Johannes Hermle, Christopher Roth","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3468019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3468019","url":null,"abstract":"We study participation in right-wing rallies and counterrallies in Germany to examine strategic interactions in political movements. In the leadup to two right-wing rallies, we exogenously shift potential participants’ beliefs about the turnout at the right-wing rally and left-wing counterrally, and then measure activists’ intentions to protest. For right-wing activists, own participation and participation of peers exhibit strategic substitutability. For left-wing activists, own participation and participation of peers are strategic complements. Both groups do not, however, react to changes in competitor effort. Our evidence highlights substantial heterogeneity in the nature of strategic interactions in political movements.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129773073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Panel Data Analysis of Latin American Left Populism","authors":"N. Cachanosky, Alexandre Padilla","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3304356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3304356","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides new estimates of the effects of left-of-center populist regimes on economic developments in the 21st century in Latin America. In contrast to earlier research, we take account of the price shocks that may also have affected economic development during these regimes’ time in office. In general, we find that left-populist regimes reduced per capita real income in both the short and long run, after accounting for those price shocks.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"18 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114112659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Security, Trade, and Political Violence","authors":"Francesco Amodio, Leonardo Baccini, Michele Di Maio","doi":"10.1093/JEEA/JVZ060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/JEEA/JVZ060","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effect of security-motivated trade restrictions on economic activity and political violence. We exploit the 2008 restrictions imposed by Israel on imports of selected goods to the West Bank as a quasi-experiment. We show that after 2008 (i) output and wages decrease differentially in manufacturing sectors that use restricted materials more intensively as production inputs, (ii) wages decrease in localities where employment is more concentrated in these sectors, and (iii) episodes of political violence are more likely to occur in these localities. This differential effect accounts for 16% of violent events that occurred in the West Bank from 2008 to 2012.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134231586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rural Banditry, Regional Security and Integration in West Africa","authors":"A. Abdullahi","doi":"10.31014/AIOR.1991.02.03.107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31014/AIOR.1991.02.03.107","url":null,"abstract":"Rural banditry is increasingly becoming one of the worst forms of domestic insurgencies affecting West African sub-region. The prevalence and severity of rural banditry has contributed to the rising increase of regional insecurity with a potential threat on regional integration of West Africa. With reference to Nigeria, this paper examines the nature and dynamics of rural banditry and its overall international security implications as well as describe how it inputs into West African states efforts towards regional security and integration. Using secondary sources of data, the study revealed that rural banditry is a resource-based conflict compounded by elite conspiracy, the primitive quest for wealth and general poverty situation which affected the people of West Africa. It has become a lucrative business accentuated by bad governance, political clientelism, the gradual disappearance of grazing lands and routes, urbanization, climate change, and absence of effective conflict resolution mechanisms. The paper revealed that rural banditry has gradually evolved into a sub-regional conflict with socio-economic and political implications on efforts towards West African security and integration. The study found that some of the implications of rural banditry with consequences on regional integration of West African include radicalization of youth, increase rate of youth unemployment and their subsequent involvement in illicit gun and narcotic drug trade across the sub-region, the emergence of a network of miscreants groups, gradual collapse of agricultural and livestock development with effects on income, trade and commerce, proliferation of small firearms and light weapons, bastardization of traditional institutions and hostile ethnic and tribal relations among ethnic groups, illegal migration and refugee problems across the sub-region as well as proliferation and networking of domestic insurgency groups threatening regional peace and stability of the sub-region. In this regard, the paper recommends a comprehensive review of regional security and integration initiatives, regional security and intelligence cooperation among security agencies of ECOWAS countries, increase surveillance and border security, awareness creation and dialogue among local communities as some of the ways of reducing the scourge of rural banditry across West African sub-region.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128691577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unfortunate Moms and Unfortunate Children: Impact of the Nepali Civil War on Women's Stature and Intergenerational Health","authors":"Lokendra Phadera","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8927","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8927","url":null,"abstract":"I analyze the long-term health impacts of Nepal's 1996-2006 civil conflict. I use information on monthly conflict incidents at the village level, which allows me to identify the effects of exposure to conflict more accurately than prior studies. I exploit the heterogeneity in conflict intensity across villages and birth cohorts to document the impacts on adult stature and intergenerational health. I find that childhood exposure to conflict and, in particular, exposure starting in infancy, negatively impacts attained adult height. Each additional month of exposure decreases a women's adult height by 1.36 millimeters. The impacts are not limited to first-generation - I find that a mother's exposure to conflict in her childhood is also detrimental to her child's health. Mothers exposed to conflict during their childhood have more children and live in less wealthy households, likely reducing their ability to invest during their children's critical period of physical development.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122390908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Creating Critical Citizens? Anti-Austerity Protests and Public Opinion.","authors":"Vicente Valentim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3292157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3292157","url":null,"abstract":"Following the Great Recession, many countries witnessed large protests against the austerity policies their governments implemented. What was their effect on public opinion? I argue that these protests can make citizens more critical of elite performance, but not more disaffected or undemocratic. Anti-austerity protests voice civil society actors instead of elites in the public debate, making such debate more relatable. Such increased relatability can make individuals more comfortable expressing their own dissatisfaction, and it can make them perceive that their voice is more valued. Taking advantage of a demonstration happening during the fieldwork of the fifth wave of the European Social Survey in Portugal, I find exposure to the protest decreased satisfaction and trust in elites. I find no evidence that the protest made individuals more disaffected from politics or more undemocratic. Supporting the argument regarding the mechanism, the protest increased the number of claims by civil society actors reported in the press and its effect was stronger for individuals worse represented by institutionalized elites. These findings highlight the democratic importance of unconventional forms of participation, and deepen our understanding of their interplay with conventional politics.","PeriodicalId":447041,"journal":{"name":"Conflict Studies: Intra-State Conflict eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129986339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}