Climate Change and Civil Unrest: Evidence from the El Niño Southern Oscillation

Abstract

A growing body of research connects short-run deviations in temperature and precipitation with violence. Less well understood is the extent to which these studies are representative of the impacts of global climate change. We follow the approach of Hsiang, Meng, and Cane (2011, Science) in using the existing climactic forces of El Nino and La Nina to analyze the potential consequences of climate change. We show that these events are strongly associated with subsequent periods of elevated social unrest. The effects we document are especially pronounced for Latin America which is particularly vulnerable both to existing climactic cycles and to projected climate change. Climate forces strongly influence the onset and frequency of government crises and anti-government demonstrations in Latin America specifically, suggesting a critical need to further develop political and social infrastructure to cope with these evolving challenges.