Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS最新文献

Modeling fog and friction in military enterprise 军事企业中雾和摩擦的建模

IF 0.8

Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231195904

R. Wallace

引用次数: 0

Adapting military doctrine in the shadow of the future 在未来的阴影下调整军事理论

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Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231189286

Todd C. Lehmann

{"title":"Adapting military doctrine in the shadow of the future","authors":"Todd C. Lehmann","doi":"10.1177/15485129231189286","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15485129231189286","url":null,"abstract":"Strategic competition creates significant evolutionary pressures on conventional militaries to improve their doctrines and overall military effectiveness. Why are some militaries more effective at evolving their doctrine than others? This paper develops a theory which argues that complex security environments force militaries to optimize their organizations for the commitment horizon they possess for a security issue. This optimization drives militaries to take on particular organizational characteristics, such as the amount of delegation and the tolerance for experimenting with new tactics, which affect their performance in systematic ways as a result. Using an agent-based model, this study evaluates the theory by simulating different organizational characteristics and evaluating how doctrinal effectiveness changes based on different commitment horizons. Results from the simulations suggest a typology of militaries according to their commitment horizon. Contrary to existing arguments that military effectiveness is determined by a particular set of strategies or by a favorable military culture, the results also suggest that doctrinal effectiveness follows a U-shaped curve as the commitment horizon increases. To illustrate the logic of the model, this study describes the typology and its implications.","PeriodicalId":44661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75540486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling of Russian–Ukrainian war based on fuzzy cognitive map with genetic tuning 基于遗传调谐模糊认知图的俄乌战争建模

IF 0.8

Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231184900

A. Rotshtein, Brian A. Polin, D. Katielnikov, Neskorodieva Tetiana

{"title":"Modeling of Russian–Ukrainian war based on fuzzy cognitive map with genetic tuning","authors":"A. Rotshtein, Brian A. Polin, D. Katielnikov, Neskorodieva Tetiana","doi":"10.1177/15485129231184900","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15485129231184900","url":null,"abstract":"The Russian–Ukrainian conflict is considered as a dynamic system, whose variables are factors affecting the losses of the Russian army and the threat of the use of nuclear weapons. A fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used for modeling, that is, a directed graph whose vertices are model variables, and the weights of arcs are the degrees of positive and negative influences of variables on each other. The following factors influencing the losses of the Russian army and the threat of a nuclear strike were selected: resistance of the Ukrainian army, support of Ukraine with weapons, economic sanctions against Russia, opposition to the Russian government and its self-preservation instinct. The degrees of the influence of factors on each other and on the possibility of using nuclear weapons are evaluated by experts using fuzzy terms, which correspond to numeric values. To adjust the FCM, a genetic algorithm is used to select the degrees of influence of factors that minimize the discrepancy between the simulation results and expert estimations. The obtained FCM is used for scenario modeling of the conflict according to the “what if” scheme and ranking of factors according to their degree of influence on the level of nuclear threat.","PeriodicalId":44661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86087779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Decision-making in the shadow of strategic competition costs 战略竞争成本阴影下的决策

IF 0.8

Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231186411

Karen E. Albert

引用次数: 0

Multiple UAVs on a shared tether: Use cases, modeling, and probabilistic path planning 共享缆绳上的多个无人机:用例，建模和概率路径规划

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Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231185588

James Humann, Michael Equi, Natalie Link, Perla Latorre-Suarez

引用次数: 0

Back to the basics: international relations, intelligence, and strategic competition 回到最基本的问题:国际关系、情报和战略竞争

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Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231185363

C. Q. Thurston

引用次数: 0

Developing a Blast Injury Modeling Capability: Application of Concepts from the Defense M&S Domain 发展爆炸损伤建模能力:国防M&S领域概念的应用

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Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231184258

Ryan Byrne, Nichole Davis, Raj Gupta, Anthony C. Santago, A. Tolk

{"title":"Developing a Blast Injury Modeling Capability: Application of Concepts from the Defense M&S Domain","authors":"Ryan Byrne, Nichole Davis, Raj Gupta, Anthony C. Santago, A. Tolk","doi":"10.1177/15485129231184258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15485129231184258","url":null,"abstract":"Increases in computational power have contributed to growing interest in using modeling and simulation (M&S) to better understand and address blast injury for US service members. The development of an M&S capability that can comprehensively simulate human injury, lethality, and impairment due to blast injury threats in the military environment requires a large, coordinated integration of many models and simulations. This contribution describes how various lessons learned from the defense M&S domain were used to support the future development of an envisioned Modeling Capability for blast injury by providing simulation functionality for simulation-based experimentation. It first addresses conceptually the interoperability challenges when more than one simulation can be or must be applied and possibly composed for the experiment. This leads to the development of a proposed concept of operations for the application of the Modeling Capability and the development of a framework of services needed to allow the identification of an applicable simulation solution, selecting the subset of those simulations, composing them for the experiment, and assessing the results. As a nascent endeavor, anticipated challenges for implementing these concepts are discussed, leveraging lessons learned regarding interoperability, composability, use of services, repositories, and development of simulation compositions to conduct simulation-based experiments.","PeriodicalId":44661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82066888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The lethality paradox: Goodhart’s Law and the challenge of measuring lethality 致命性悖论:古德哈特定律和衡量致命性的挑战

IF 0.8

Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS Pub Date : 2023-06-02 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231165527

Adam T. Biggs, Joseph A. Hamilton, Greg Huffman, R. Markwald

引用次数: 0

Preliminary debris risk assessment for mega-constellations in low and medium earth orbit due to satellite breakup 卫星解体对中低地球轨道巨型星座碎片风险的初步评估

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Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231163868

J. Canoy, Robert A. Bettinger

引用次数: 1

A stochastic jump model applied to collaborative queue-based high energy laser defense 应用于协同队列高能激光防御的随机跳跃模型

IF 0.8

Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231161092

Mitchell M Kracman

{"title":"A stochastic jump model applied to collaborative queue-based high energy laser defense","authors":"Mitchell M Kracman","doi":"10.1177/15485129231161092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15485129231161092","url":null,"abstract":"High energy lasers (HELs) are evolving to provide an effective solution for air and missile defense. The emergence of this technology comes at a similar time to the development of cooperative and collaborative defense systems that collect and communicate data to inform decisions. This paper proposes a stochastic jump method for modeling the performance of networked HELs, defending against aerial threats which follow a queueing methodology. By drawing on an existing method that quantifies performance using the sum of sojourn times in a stochastic jump process, the model can predict the probability of survival when multiple effectors are tasked in defending against an arbitrary number of threats. The model can be applied more generally to processes with both waiting time–dependent service and finite existence. Furthermore, a new HEL counteraction probability model is developed to enable the demonstration and comparison of three different system collaboration methods in a future warfare application. Results suggest the prevailing superimposing laser strategy may be less effective than simple one-to-one allocation of lasers to threats. There may also be merit in targeting separate components of a threat’s structure.","PeriodicalId":44661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85135786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0