Decision-making in the shadow of strategic competition costs

IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Karen E. Albert
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In today’s current climate of near-peer conflict, it is important to understand the dynamics of strategic competition. Understanding these dynamics will improve decision-making in this environment, which is often called the gray zone of conflict. I use a two-stage simultaneous move game to study the state of strategic competition. The simulation of this model reveals two dynamics through which strategic competition can be managed. The first is the probability of winning a confrontation. The second is the cost of actions. As the cost of more-aggressive actions increases relative to the cost of less-aggressive actions, then even with higher chances of winning a confrontation, players are incentivized to choose less-aggressive actions. Increasing costs of the most-aggressive actions, but not the less-aggressive ones, offers decision-makers a second avenue through which they can encourage less-aggressive competition, which is less likely to instigate a full crisis or lead to war.
战略竞争成本阴影下的决策
在当今势均力敌的环境下,理解战略竞争的动态是很重要的。了解这些动态将改善在这种环境中的决策,这种环境通常被称为冲突的灰色地带。本文采用两阶段同步博弈来研究战略竞争状态。该模型的仿真揭示了战略竞争管理的两种动态机制。首先是赢得对抗的可能性。第二是行动的成本。由于更具侵略性行动的成本相对于较不具侵略性行动的成本增加,因此即使赢得对抗的几率更高,玩家也会被激励选择较不具侵略性的行动。增加最激进行动的成本,而不是那些不那么激进的行动的成本,为决策者提供了第二种途径,通过这种途径,他们可以鼓励不那么激进的竞争,这种竞争不太可能引发全面危机或导致战争。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
12.50%
发文量
40
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