A stochastic jump model applied to collaborative queue-based high energy laser defense

Abstract

High energy lasers (HELs) are evolving to provide an effective solution for air and missile defense. The emergence of this technology comes at a similar time to the development of cooperative and collaborative defense systems that collect and communicate data to inform decisions. This paper proposes a stochastic jump method for modeling the performance of networked HELs, defending against aerial threats which follow a queueing methodology. By drawing on an existing method that quantifies performance using the sum of sojourn times in a stochastic jump process, the model can predict the probability of survival when multiple effectors are tasked in defending against an arbitrary number of threats. The model can be applied more generally to processes with both waiting time–dependent service and finite existence. Furthermore, a new HEL counteraction probability model is developed to enable the demonstration and comparison of three different system collaboration methods in a future warfare application. Results suggest the prevailing superimposing laser strategy may be less effective than simple one-to-one allocation of lasers to threats. There may also be merit in targeting separate components of a threat’s structure.