致命性悖论:古德哈特定律和衡量致命性的挑战

IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Adam T. Biggs, Joseph A. Hamilton, Greg Huffman, R. Markwald
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引用次数: 0

摘要

军事表现必须进行评估,而衡量的最关键概念之一涉及军事力量的致命能力。然而,有多重挑战使任何准确的性能评估复杂化,包括由于统计不规范造成的测量理论问题和由于军事背景造成的实际限制。在这里,我们描述了致命性悖论,它表明,测量致命性可能是一种弄巧成拙的做法,尽管它是必要的。具体来说,任何收集到的度量值都可能因测量行为而固有地减少,同时也会为军事力量造成操作漏洞。这个悖论被认为是古德哈特定律的延伸,它包含了同样的挑战,即一个人在一套标准下游戏,而不是发展按该标准衡量的技能。我们的讨论确定了古德哈特定律在致命性方面的局限性和应用,同时也提出了针对不同矛盾挑战的几种解决方案。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The lethality paradox: Goodhart’s Law and the challenge of measuring lethality
Military performance must be evaluated, and one of the most critical concepts to measure involves the lethal capabilities of a military force. However, there are multiple challenges that complicate any accurate performance assessment, including theoretical issues of measurement due to statistical irregularities and practical limitations due to the military context. Here, we describe the lethality paradox, which states that measuring lethality could be a self-defeating exercise despite its necessity. Specifically, the value of any collected metric may be inherently reduced by the act of measurement while, also, creating operational vulnerabilities for a military force. This paradox is conceived as an extension of Goodhart’s Law and incorporates the same challenges of a personnel gaming a set standard rather than developing the skill set supposedly measured by this standard. Our discussion identifies the limitations and applications of Goodhart’s Law to lethality while also concluding with several proposed solutions to different paradoxical challenges.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
12.50%
发文量
40
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