{"title":"卫星解体对中低地球轨道巨型星座碎片风险的初步评估","authors":"J. Canoy, Robert A. Bettinger","doi":"10.1177/15485129231163868","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the potential risk posed by artificial debris clouds in low Earth orbit (LEO) from mega-constellations, modeled after current communication constellations such as Starlink and OneWeb with 750 satellites each. The analysis examines three different constellation designs: a low-altitude LEO, a high-altitude LEO, and a medium Earth orbit (MEO) constellation, which will be positioned using the Walker-Delta design. The study is based on physics-based digital mission engineering and a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The simulation involves debris generated from a single breakup of one randomly selected satellite per run, but does not consider cascading debris events. This debris cloud is propagated for 1 week and how it interacts with the mega-constellation is recorded. The results show an average of 705.65 potential conjunctions within the LEO constellation, with 14.40% of those being considered catastrophic, and an average of 165.5 conjunctions in the MEO constellation, with 0.72% considered catastrophic.","PeriodicalId":44661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Preliminary debris risk assessment for mega-constellations in low and medium earth orbit due to satellite breakup\",\"authors\":\"J. Canoy, Robert A. Bettinger\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/15485129231163868\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the potential risk posed by artificial debris clouds in low Earth orbit (LEO) from mega-constellations, modeled after current communication constellations such as Starlink and OneWeb with 750 satellites each. The analysis examines three different constellation designs: a low-altitude LEO, a high-altitude LEO, and a medium Earth orbit (MEO) constellation, which will be positioned using the Walker-Delta design. The study is based on physics-based digital mission engineering and a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The simulation involves debris generated from a single breakup of one randomly selected satellite per run, but does not consider cascading debris events. This debris cloud is propagated for 1 week and how it interacts with the mega-constellation is recorded. The results show an average of 705.65 potential conjunctions within the LEO constellation, with 14.40% of those being considered catastrophic, and an average of 165.5 conjunctions in the MEO constellation, with 0.72% considered catastrophic.\",\"PeriodicalId\":44661,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-05-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/15485129231163868\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15485129231163868","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Preliminary debris risk assessment for mega-constellations in low and medium earth orbit due to satellite breakup
This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the potential risk posed by artificial debris clouds in low Earth orbit (LEO) from mega-constellations, modeled after current communication constellations such as Starlink and OneWeb with 750 satellites each. The analysis examines three different constellation designs: a low-altitude LEO, a high-altitude LEO, and a medium Earth orbit (MEO) constellation, which will be positioned using the Walker-Delta design. The study is based on physics-based digital mission engineering and a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The simulation involves debris generated from a single breakup of one randomly selected satellite per run, but does not consider cascading debris events. This debris cloud is propagated for 1 week and how it interacts with the mega-constellation is recorded. The results show an average of 705.65 potential conjunctions within the LEO constellation, with 14.40% of those being considered catastrophic, and an average of 165.5 conjunctions in the MEO constellation, with 0.72% considered catastrophic.