卫星解体对中低地球轨道巨型星座碎片风险的初步评估

IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
J. Canoy, Robert A. Bettinger
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文对来自巨型星座的低地球轨道(LEO)人造碎片云的潜在风险进行了理论分析,模拟了当前的通信星座,如Starlink和OneWeb,每个星座有750颗卫星。该分析研究了三种不同的星座设计:低空LEO、高空LEO和中地球轨道(MEO)星座,将使用Walker-Delta设计进行定位。该研究基于基于物理的数字任务工程和蒙特卡罗仿真框架。该模拟涉及随机选择的一颗卫星每次运行时的单次解体产生的碎片,但不考虑级联碎片事件。这个碎片云传播了一周,记录了它与巨型星座的相互作用。结果表明,LEO星座平均有705.65个潜在连词,其中14.40%为灾难性连词;MEO星座平均有165.5个,其中0.72%为灾难性连词。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Preliminary debris risk assessment for mega-constellations in low and medium earth orbit due to satellite breakup
This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the potential risk posed by artificial debris clouds in low Earth orbit (LEO) from mega-constellations, modeled after current communication constellations such as Starlink and OneWeb with 750 satellites each. The analysis examines three different constellation designs: a low-altitude LEO, a high-altitude LEO, and a medium Earth orbit (MEO) constellation, which will be positioned using the Walker-Delta design. The study is based on physics-based digital mission engineering and a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The simulation involves debris generated from a single breakup of one randomly selected satellite per run, but does not consider cascading debris events. This debris cloud is propagated for 1 week and how it interacts with the mega-constellation is recorded. The results show an average of 705.65 potential conjunctions within the LEO constellation, with 14.40% of those being considered catastrophic, and an average of 165.5 conjunctions in the MEO constellation, with 0.72% considered catastrophic.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
12.50%
发文量
40
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