Central Bank ReviewPub Date : 2024-03-01Epub Date: 2024-02-03DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100148
José Alejandro Fernández Fernández
{"title":"“Banking systems in the euro zone and transmission of monetary policy”","authors":"José Alejandro Fernández Fernández","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100148","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the transmission of monetary policy in the eurozone from 2005 to 2021. The novelty of this research lies in defining the European Central Bank's monetary policy through three dimensions extracted via principal component analysis. These components, examined across various neural network models, enable the exploration of the heterogeneity of monetary policy within the Eurozone. Specifically, dimension 2, which represents the yield curve structure and the ECB's interventions in debt markets, serves to categorize the transmission of monetary policy into two groups of countries. The study concludes that variations in banking system characteristics such as margins and leverage, among others, lead to diverse outcomes in the transmission of monetary policy within the credit channel.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"24 1","pages":"Article 100148"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070124000027/pdfft?md5=7f316d436525e274298e5b1267a5dc83&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070124000027-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139674841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Central Bank ReviewPub Date : 2024-03-01Epub Date: 2023-12-17DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100139
Serkan Çiçek, Aynur Yıldırım
{"title":"The impact of domestic and global factors on individual public, domestic and foreign bank performances in Türkiye","authors":"Serkan Çiçek, Aynur Yıldırım","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Turkish economy has encountered significant shocks in interest rates and foreign exchange along with global risks in recent years. These shocks had an impact not only on the real sector but also on the banking sector's returns, depending on the ownership structure. This study examines the sensitivity of banking sector stock returns to the exchange rate, interest rate, and VIX index using data from January 4, 2005 to March 28, 2023. Using multivariate diagonal BEKK-GARCH methodology, the study found that (i) half of private banks experienced a mean spillover from the interest rate to their returns, but not from the exchange rate and VIX index, (ii) the returns of public banks, on the other hand, did not respond to any variable in the mean equations, (iii) the explanatory power of exchange rate and interest rate risks is higher than the power of the changes in these variables, (iv) the spillover of global risk in covariance equations is higher compared to exchange and interest rate risks, (v) the mean equations do not have an asymmetric structure, but the covariance equations exhibit structural breaks. These findings suggest that in the last decade, the interest rate policy has become the main variable affecting the stock returns in Türkiye, foreign exchange has become a safe haven due to this policy, and the relationship between the exchange rate and stocks that existed in the past has been disrupted.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"24 1","pages":"Article 100139"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070123000343/pdfft?md5=b71c83b142a2e11a79080f84498f6d26&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070123000343-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138739183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Central Bank ReviewPub Date : 2024-03-01Epub Date: 2024-03-11DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100149
Luccas Assis Attílio
{"title":"Transmission and impact of stock market shocks on the world economy","authors":"Luccas Assis Attílio","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100149","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we examine stock market shocks using a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model encompassing 26 countries from January 1999 to June 2022. Our findings reveal that i) shocks originating from advanced economies (AD) exhibit greater persistence in generating fluctuations compared to shocks from emerging market economies (EME); ii) negative stock market shocks are associated with devaluations of domestic currencies, endogenous responses of monetary policy, and global recession. Our estimates suggest that stock market fluctuations have significant potential to destabilize international markets, with contagion spreading rapidly. Our approach contributes to existing literature by constructing a comprehensive model of the world economy, simulating aggregate shocks, and assessing the relevance of global shocks based on the level of economic development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"24 1","pages":"Article 100149"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070124000039/pdfft?md5=236b49e0d606f60b40ab6b3c85c09f07&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070124000039-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140103344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Household portfolios in Türkiye: Results from the household finance and consumption survey","authors":"Evren Ceritoğlu , Seyit Mümin Cılasun , Müşerref Küçükbayrak , Özlem Sevinç","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper analyzes the distribution of household portfolios in Türkiye using a fresh data set, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye – Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The empirical analysis concentrates on the motives behind household saving preferences and the distribution of household portfolios. Moreover, the financial situation of households in Türkiye is compared with Euro area countries. First, we find that income and household characteristics are among the leading determinants of households' portfolio choices in Türkiye. Second, we reveal that households’ portfolios are under-diversified, since they own relatively small amounts of financial wealth and hold a few types of financial assets. Furthermore, risky asset categories such as shares of publicly traded companies are rarely included among them. Third, households are more likely to invest in financial assets as their income increases, but the share of financial assets in total wealth remains subdued as household income increases, since at that point real estate wealth becomes dominant. Finally, we discover that households are more likely to be in debt in Türkiye compared to households from the Euro area. Additionally, they are more likely to accumulate non-collateralized debt and also private debt, which is owed to friends and relatives to be repaid. However, the percentage of households with mortgage debt and the share of mortgage debt in total household liabilities are smaller in Türkiye, suggesting that many households have to rely on their own funds or private loans to purchase homes. As a result, we can argue that households need to be encouraged to invest a larger share of their wealth in financial assets to raise household savings and to deepen financial markets in Türkiye.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"23 4","pages":"Article 100132"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070123000276/pdfft?md5=1058c8360497d41173de12292116ac80&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070123000276-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138466262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Central Bank ReviewPub Date : 2023-12-01Epub Date: 2023-12-07DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100140
N. Nergiz Dincer, Pelin Pektekin, Ayça Tekin-Koru
{"title":"Long shadows of the walking dead on economic activity","authors":"N. Nergiz Dincer, Pelin Pektekin, Ayça Tekin-Koru","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents the panorama of zombie firms in the Turkish economy, which are highly inefficient, highly indebted firms that have low or sometimes negative productivity, and provides an analysis of the impact of these firms on economic activity for the period 2012–2015. Our results suggest that the number of zombie firms in Türkiye has increased. The share of these firms in sales and employment has also increased, but at a lower rate. These firms are mainly found in low-technology manufacturing and transportation and distribution services. The paper also shows that healthy firms increase total factor productivity, employment growth, and the investment-to-capital ratio in the economy in a robust manner. The sales of zombie firms have no distorting effect on the economic activity of healthy firms. However, capital sunk into zombie firms has a differential impact on the performance of healthy firms. When the share of zombie capital in a sector increases, the TFP growth of manufacturing firms decreases, while the employment growth of medium-sized service firms increases.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"23 4","pages":"Article 100140"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070123000355/pdfft?md5=3190acaa719994e145f19347b5506273&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070123000355-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138546942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Central Bank ReviewPub Date : 2023-12-01Epub Date: 2023-10-27DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100129
Mustafa Recep Bilici , Saygın Çevik
{"title":"Financial literacy and cash holdings in Türkiye","authors":"Mustafa Recep Bilici , Saygın Çevik","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100129","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines the effect of financial literacy level on cash holdings in Turkey. Utilizing the Methods of Payment Survey, which includes both financial literacy and cash-related data, we first investigate the fundamentals of financial literacy in Turkey. Based on the performance on financial literacy questions, we categorize respondents into three groups. Subsequently, we analyze how cash holding behavior differs among financial literacy groups. Our results reveal that financially literate respondents tend to hold less cash on hand and store more cash elsewhere. Moreover, card ownership increases through financial literacy and the change in payment behavior of financially literate respondents is more significant during Covid-19 pandemic. The results imply that promoting financial literacy may result in less cash usage at points of sale accompanied by the currency in circulation growth, due to the overwhelming effect of increased non-transactional demand following a positive change in financial literacy level.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"23 4","pages":"Article 100129"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71764189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Central Bank ReviewPub Date : 2023-09-01Epub Date: 2023-09-28DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100130
Kurmaş Akdoğan , Yusuf Kenan Bağır , Huzeyfe Torun
{"title":"Heterogeneous effect of exchange rates on firms’ exports: Role of labor intensity","authors":"Kurmaş Akdoğan , Yusuf Kenan Bağır , Huzeyfe Torun","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100130","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using an extensive firm-level database that combines balance sheet information, social security registry and customs data, we examine whether the relationship between the exchange rate and exports change with the degree of labor-intensity of production. The results based on manufacturing firms in Türkiye suggest that the sensitivity of labor-intensive firms to the exchange rate is higher than that of the less labor-intensive ones, both at the intensive and extensive margins of exports. In addition, export product variety and export market variety of the labor-intensive firms increase more than the others during a currency depreciation. In particular, the increase in the exports of the labor-intensive firms is 2.7 percent higher than the increase in exports of the non-labor-intensive firms in case of a 10 percent decline in the real effective exchange rate. However, we do not find a significant impact on the export prices varying across the labor-intensity of the firms. Our results are robust to alternative definitions of labor-intensity and exchange rates, and the use of different time spans.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"23 3","pages":"Article 100130"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50186433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Central Bank ReviewPub Date : 2023-09-01Epub Date: 2023-10-14DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100128
Baburam Adhikari , Marie Kavanagh , Bonnie Hampson
{"title":"A comparative analysis of the financial performance of commercial banks after mergers and acquisitions using Nepalese data","authors":"Baburam Adhikari , Marie Kavanagh , Bonnie Hampson","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article investigates consolidation and restructuring in the banking sector in Nepal that was induced by regulatory intervention in recent years. We compare the financial performance of the overall commercial banking sector and selected commercial banks on an individual basis before and after the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) policy intervention. The research employs an analysis of the financial ratios (profitability, liquidity, leverage, and wealth of shareholders ratios) before and after mergers that took place between 2013 and 2020 on a sample of seven Nepalese commercial banks. Hypotheses are tested using a paired sample <em>t</em>-test to measure any significant difference between the pre- and post-merger situations of the acquiring banks’ financial metrics. The findings indicate that the overall commercial banking sector significantly improved their liquidity and leverage ratios in the post-merger period. Other measures, such as the profitability and shareholder wealth ratios showed either mixed or insignificant results after the M&A. The results for selected commercial banks on an individual basis were even less conclusive and mixed. While some banks showed improvement in financial ratios, other results were insignificant.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"23 3","pages":"Article 100128"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50186432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Central Bank ReviewPub Date : 2023-09-01Epub Date: 2023-09-30DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100131
Aysu Çelgin , Okan Eren , Pınar Özlü
{"title":"Credit growth and current account balance","authors":"Aysu Çelgin , Okan Eren , Pınar Özlü","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100131","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we investigate the relationship between different loan types and the current account balance along with its sub-components. Our empirical results suggest that a rise in total loans inevitably leads to a deterioration in the current account balance. This relationship is preserved in the case of the goods trade balance, but it becomes statistically insignificant and disappears if the services trade balance is considered. When we examine different types of loans, our findings indicate that both consumer and corporate loans have sizeable and negative effect on both the current account and goods trade balances with the impact of consumer loans being much higher. We also report that only corporate loans have a significantly negative relationship with the services trade balance although the concurrent effect is rather small.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"23 3","pages":"Article 100131"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50186011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Central Bank ReviewPub Date : 2023-06-01Epub Date: 2023-06-27DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100117
Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia , Frederico Cavaleiro de Mendonça
{"title":"Compliance with the Basel Core Principles and supervisory structure: A cross-country analysis","authors":"Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia , Frederico Cavaleiro de Mendonça","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2023.100117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper is motivated by the implementation of the new banking supervision structure in the European Union (EU) and the possible conflict of interest between monetary policy and the supervision authority within the European Central Bank (ECB). The empirical analysis considers the relationship between the structure of banking supervision and the compliance with the Basel Core Principles (BCP) for effective supervision. A sample of 21 countries and the Euro Area (EA) is used. In addition to the structure of bank supervision, a list of independent variables is considered to explain the dependent variable. The results suggest that the supervisory structure has no statistical significance at any notable significance level on compliance with the BCP. On the contrary, financial freedom is a statistically significant variable.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"23 2","pages":"Article 100117"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50197119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}