Central Bank Review最新文献_第5页

Consumer loan rate dispersion and the role of competition: Evidence from Turkish banking industry 消费贷款利率分散与竞争作用:来自土耳其银行业的证据

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.01.001

Selva Bahar Baziki , Yavuz Kılıç , Muhammed Hasan Yılmaz

{"title":"Consumer loan rate dispersion and the role of competition: Evidence from Turkish banking industry","authors":"Selva Bahar Baziki , Yavuz Kılıç , Muhammed Hasan Yılmaz","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.01.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates the degree of dispersion in the loan pricing of commercial banks and its association with competitive conditions in the banking industry of a large emerging economy. To quantify the lending rate variability in consumer loans, we utilize a new indexation mechanism exploiting a detailed bank-level dataset for the period January 2007–April 2020. With panel convergence methods, we show the existence of heterogeneity in long-term co-movements among banks' loan pricing, while periods following the tightening in financial conditions display short-term deviations from general tendencies as demonstrated by dispersion indices. Our empirical design also entails the construction of competition indicators for aggregated and consumer segment-based credit market developments. Quantile regression results validate that the improvements in industry competition are related to the lower level of lending rate dispersion in housing and vehicle segments in a statistically significant manner, whereas an opposite relationship is evident for general-purpose loans.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"22 1","pages":"Pages 27-47"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070122000014/pdfft?md5=1e17e7b8f74111019bfcdd0a2de776c8&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070122000014-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137278080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Potential growth in Turkey: Sources and trends 土耳其的潜在增长:来源和趋势

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.01.002

Orhun Sevinç , Ufuk Demiroğlu , Emre Çakır , E. Meltem Baştan

引用次数: 2

Can central bank speeches predict financial market turbulence? Evidence from an adaptive NLP sentiment index analysis using XGBoost machine learning technique 央行讲话能预测金融市场动荡吗?使用XGBoost机器学习技术的自适应NLP情绪指数分析的证据

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.12.002

Anastasios Petropoulos, Vasilis Siakoulis

{"title":"Can central bank speeches predict financial market turbulence? Evidence from an adaptive NLP sentiment index analysis using XGBoost machine learning technique","authors":"Anastasios Petropoulos, Vasilis Siakoulis","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Central Bank speeches usually function as aggregators of internal quantitative and qualitative analysis of the institutions regarding the macro economy, the monetary policy and the health of the financial systems. Speeches usually function as a summary of the current status of a countries economic health, the undergoing trends and some future perspectives of the global economy. In this study departing from classical econometrics we employ natural language processing technologies in combination with machine learning techniques in order to filter out the most important signals in the corpus of speeches and translate into a sentiment index for forecasting the future financial markets behaviour. In our analysis, it is evident that central banker's expectations on economy tend to exhibit a predictive ability for financial markets turmoil. Using a combination of dictionaries which are either predefined or build based on historical speeches of the corpus we train an Extreme Gradient Boosting model that generates a sentiment index which signals turmoil with acceptable accuracy when passing a specific threshold.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"21 4","pages":"Pages 141-153"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070121000329/pdfft?md5=8282b5122d51e90542e902eb362fe52a&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070121000329-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77116489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 11

Liquidity transformation, collateral assets and counterparties 流动性转化，抵押资产和交易对手

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.09.001

Calebe de Roure , Nick McLaren

引用次数: 0

Covid 19 and the Turkish labor market: Heterogeneous effects across demographic groups 2019冠状病毒病与土耳其劳动力市场:不同人口群体的异质性影响

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.12.003

Altan Aldan, Muhammet Enes Çıraklı, Huzeyfe Torun

引用次数: 5

The impacts of international capital flows on household credits 国际资本流动对家庭信贷的影响

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.12.001

Bilal Çayır

{"title":"The impacts of international capital flows on household credits","authors":"Bilal Çayır","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates the association between international capital flows (foreign direct investment and portfolio investments) and household credits using quarterly data for Turkey from 2005 to 2020. The Turkish financial market is a suitable sample due to Turkey's highly open economic structure to global markets and because of the country's strong demand dynamics. This study also employs a set of control variables in line with the existing literature and country-specific dynamics that might be related with household credit growth. Empirical findings show that (1) there is a unidirectional causal linkage from FDI and interest rates to household credits, (2) FDI and portfolio investments positively affect household credits in the long-run, (3) short-term results suggest a negative relationship between FDI and credit growth and (4), based on the results from the error correction model, a deviation in the household credit market is stabilized by 23.6% each quarter in order to achieve long-run equilibrium. The overall results of this study suggest that encouraging FDI inflows and thus accelerating the technological transformation of domestic markets may contribute to the development of the household credit market and indirectly to the welfare of households in Turkey.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"21 4","pages":"Pages 131-140"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070121000317/pdfft?md5=2d710c66191bed4810042ee27a4aeed4&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070121000317-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79654793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Heterogeneous provincial prices and monetary policy in South Africa: A wavelet-based quantile regression analysis 南非异质性省级价格与货币政策:基于小波的分位数回归分析

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.06.001

Abdul-Aziz Iddrisu , Imhotep Paul Alagidede

引用次数: 2

Domestic demand and exports: Evidence from Turkish firms 国内需求和出口:来自土耳其公司的证据

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.07.001

Selçuk Gül

引用次数: 0

Card spending dynamics in Turkey during the COVID-19 pandemic 2019冠状病毒病大流行期间土耳其的信用卡消费动态

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.07.002

Zeynep Kantur , Gülserim Özcan

{"title":"Card spending dynamics in Turkey during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Zeynep Kantur , Gülserim Özcan","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper provides an extensive analysis of card spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey by using weekly aggregated and sectoral credit and debit card spending data from March 2014 to December 2020. At an aggregated level, we show that aggregate demand decreases significantly at the early stages of COVID-19 and seems to reinstate its pre-COVID trend. However, when we include the pre-existing conditions of Turkey, the 2018 currency crisis, we observe that the recovery in demand is not that strong. To highlight the underlying reasons for structural change in aggregate demand, we estimate the model with <em>stringency index</em> and <em>unemployment-related search index</em>. The estimated model indicates that containment measures and restrictions and fear of job/income loss mainly explain the overall impact of COVID-19 on aggregate demand. We also examined sectoral data to understand aggregate demand dynamics better. Only stable and delayable sector groups have reached a trend above their pre-pandemic trajectories. However, the social and work-related sectors are far from their respective pre-pandemic trend.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"21 3","pages":"Pages 71-86"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.07.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86532646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Okun’s law under the demographic dynamics of the Turkish labor market 奥肯定律在土耳其劳动力市场的人口动态下

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.002

Evren Erdoğan Coşar, Ayşe Arzu Yavuz

{"title":"Okun’s law under the demographic dynamics of the Turkish labor market","authors":"Evren Erdoğan Coşar, Ayşe Arzu Yavuz","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the asymmetric relationships between demographic characteristics of labor market variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Turkish economy. Both expansions and recessions are considered in a Markov Switching (MS) model, using quarterly data between 1989 and 2019. Okun’s coefficients are estimated for the different age groups, genders and education levels. The results reveal that men are more likely to lose their jobs during recessions in Turkey whereas unemployment rates for 25-39 year-olds and those with at least university degrees are the least affected groups. There is also asymmetry within and between states across the demographic groups due to GDP phases. The study also investigates the gender dynamics of labor force participation rates (LFPR) as a fundamental determinant of unemployment rate. According to the MS models, LFPR responds significantly and positively to GDP expansions for men whereas it is significant and negative for women. That is, as economic activity begins to recover after a recession, Turkish women leave the labor force as secondary income earners.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"Pages 59-69"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74376106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2