央行如何在不迅速收缩资产负债表的情况下退出量化宽松政策?

IF 2 Q2 ECONOMICS
Atsushi Tanaka
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引用次数: 1

摘要

对于工业化国家的主要中央银行来说,一个重要的问题是如何设计可取的策略来退出量化宽松(QE)。在退出时,如果央行需要迅速减少其资产负债表扩张所产生的流动性,发行新的有息负债将比通过出售现有资产来迅速缩小资产负债表更为可取,这既是为了稳定这些资产市场,也是为了能够防止资本损失在摊销成本会计下反映在资产负债表上。鉴于在量化宽松时期积累的现有资产利息回报较低,而在量化紧缩时期将要发行的新负债利息支出较高,央行可能会出现亏损,从而威胁到其偿付能力,这可能迫使银行将货币基础扩大到与央行理想的价格稳定路径相一致的水平之上。本文考虑央行通过发行债务退出QE,并通过构建一个简单的动态优化模型来检验在保持偿付能力的情况下央行的最优退出策略。然后将该模型应用于日本央行(Bank of Japan)和美联储(fed),以检验它们可能的退出。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How can a central bank exit quantitative easing without rapidly shrinking its balance sheet?

An important question for the major central banks of the industrialized world is how to design desirable strategies to exit quantitative easing (QE). At the exit, if a central bank needs to reduce rapidly the liquidity created by its balance sheet expansion, issuing new interest-bearing liabilities would be preferable to rapidly shrinking the balance sheet by selling existing assets, both for the stability of those assets' markets and to be able to keep capital losses from being reflected in the balance sheet under amortized-cost accounting. Given that existing assets accumulated during the quantitative easing period have low interest returns, and new liabilities to be issued in the quantitative tightening period would have high interest payouts, the central bank may run a loss that may threaten its solvency, which may force the bank to expand the monetary base above the level that is consistent with the central bank's ideal price stability path. This study considers a central bank that exits QE by issuing liabilities and examines an optimal exit strategy while maintaining the solvency by constructing a simple dynamic optimization model. The model is then applied to the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve to examine their possible exits.

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来源期刊
Central Bank Review
Central Bank Review ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
审稿时长
69 days
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