Central Bank Review最新文献

The nonlinear nexuses between monetary policy, household indebtedness, and household consumption: Evidence from Korea

IF 2

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100190

Jounghyeon Kim

{"title":"The nonlinear nexuses between monetary policy, household indebtedness, and household consumption: Evidence from Korea","authors":"Jounghyeon Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100190","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100190","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Household indebtedness in Korea has surged persistently during 2003-2022. Low interest rates, coupled with escalating housing prices, are the key drivers of growing household debt. In this context, monetary tightening may play an opposite role to conventional monetary policy. Moreover, inordinate indebtedness likely acts as a deterrent to household consumption. Using threshold regression, this study explores the nonlinear nexus between monetary policy and household debt, as well as the nexus between household consumption and debt in Korea. The results reveal that an increase in the monetary policy rate boosts household debt in a regime with values beyond the threshold of the nominal (real) housing sales price index approximately 61.3 and 63.9 (80.7) for regressions on the regime-specific nominal and real policy rates, respectively. This implies that monetary tightening can enhance household debt due to high housing price expectations. Furthermore, an increase in household indebtedness suppresses household consumption when the household debt-to-annual GDP ratio is above the thresholds of approximately 84% and 82% for regressions on household debt growth and household debt-to-GDP ratio growth, respectively. These findings suggest that, under low interest rates, in the face of high housing prices and “excessive” household indebtedness, monetary tightening and debt expansion are unviable courses of action for resolving growing household indebtedness and declining household consumption. Therefore, when regulating the policy rate to control household debt and spending effectively, it is crucial to maintain housing prices and household indebtedness at desirable levels. In tandem with this, additional policy instruments such as macroprudential and housing-related fiscal regulations may also be needed to attain financial stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"25 1","pages":"Article 100190"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of temperature and precipitation on wheat production in Türkiye

IF 2

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100191

Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan, Saide Simin Bayraktar

{"title":"The impact of temperature and precipitation on wheat production in Türkiye","authors":"Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan, Saide Simin Bayraktar","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2025.100191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It is now a well-known fact that climate is changing globally at an unprecedented rate and agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to this change. Considered as a significant threat for food security, climate change and its impact on agricultural practices are among the most prominent topics in the recent economic literature. Given its significant contribution to employment, exports and national income, agricultural production-climate change relation is considerably crucial for the Turkish economy. In this paper, we investigate the impact of climate change on wheat production at the province-level with a unique, up-to-date and comprehensive dataset that is constructed by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) under the Early Warning System Project (EWSP). In the corresponding models, climate change is initially considered in a conventional way via temperature and precipitation measures, later considered with new alternative composite climate indicators. The estimation results obtained from models with two different alternative climate measures are comparable and similar: Climate change has a statistically significant adverse impact on wheat production. Combining model estimation results with the climate scenarios, the impact of hotter springs and summers on wheat production for different time spans has been put forward. The impact is found to be increasing over time, regardless severity of the climate scenarios. We believe that our understanding regarding climate change-agricultural production relation will improve with the advancements of the data set, and this will support the development of more efficient policy recommendations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"25 1","pages":"Article 100191"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143402683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How did credit guarantee fund supports affect the bank-loan network in Türkiye?

IF 2

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100182

Ayça Topalog̃lu-Bozkurt , Süheyla Özyıldırım

引用次数: 0

User adoption of digital currency: A systematic review and future agenda using TCCM approach

IF 2

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100183

Vikrant Singh, Mayank Yadav

引用次数: 0

Uneven effects of monetary policy: Sectoral disparities in credit card spending 货币政策的不均衡效应：信用卡消费的部门差异

IF 2

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100181

Hakan Yilmazkuday

{"title":"Uneven effects of monetary policy: Sectoral disparities in credit card spending","authors":"Hakan Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100181","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100181","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on the credit card spending on different sectors. The investigation is based on a structural vector autoregression model, where sector-specific real credit card spending data (adjusted for inflation) representing an overall country, Türkiye, are used. The empirical results (in the long run) suggest that a positive shock to the monetary policy rate reduces real credit card spending in cars, health, insurance, and shopping in a statistically significant way, whereas it increases real credit card spending on airlines and travel. Monetary policy shocks contribute to the volatility of credit card spending by up to 36% for insurance, 26% for markets and shopping centers, and 22% for travel sectors, whereas this contribution is only about 3% for contractor services and about 4% for car rentals, jewelry, and casino sectors. It is implied that there are uneven effects of monetary policy across sector-specific credit card spendings. These results are robust to the consideration of changes in unemployment rate, inflation rate, nominal effective exchange rate, and the number of credit card transactions as well as alternative model specifications with different numbers of lags, different variables, and different estimation strategies. Important suggestions follow for monetary, fiscal, and macroprudential policies to mitigate the uneven effects of monetary policy across sectors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"24 4","pages":"Article 100181"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Domestic inflation decomposition in a small open economy: Evidence from import price dynamics in Kazakhstan 小型开放经济体的国内通胀分解：哈萨克斯坦进口价格动态的证据

IF 2

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100179

Zhandos Ybrayev, Bauyrzhan Shamar, Kamilla Mamatova

{"title":"Domestic inflation decomposition in a small open economy: Evidence from import price dynamics in Kazakhstan","authors":"Zhandos Ybrayev, Bauyrzhan Shamar, Kamilla Mamatova","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100179","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100179","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically analyzes the key drivers of inflation in Kazakhstan by differentiating between demand and supply-driven factors contributing to headline inflation. Given that Kazakhstan is highly sensitive to adverse external fluctuations (due to its economic structure), our empirical strategy investigates asymmetric dynamics of prices of goods with high versus low degree of import share. Hence, we develop a methodology to determine the level of “importability” in certain consumption products, which serves as a proxy of vulnerability to external macroeconomic shocks. The results confirm our hypothesis that products with different degree of import content respond differently to major macroeconomic shocks. Consequently, we conclude that headline inflation in Kazakhstan is primarily impacted by supply-side factors, such as the direct transmission of exchange rate changes to prices of products with higher import shares (exchange rate pass-through) and a large component of inflation inertia. Differentiating and properly identifying inflation dynamics of the high-import-content and low-import-content goods have important implications for optimal monetary policy conduct in developing economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"24 4","pages":"Article 100179"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Potential impact of introducing a neutral positive countercyclical capital buffer in EU countries 欧盟国家引入中性正向反周期资本缓冲的潜在影响

IF 2

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100180

Paweł Smaga

引用次数: 0

Bank loan maturity and corporate investment 银行贷款到期和企业投资

IF 2

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100178

İbrahim Yarba, Burak Deniz

引用次数: 0

Singular spectrum analysis to estimate core inflation in Brazil 用奇异谱分析估算巴西核心通货膨胀率

IF 2

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100177

Matheus Fellipe de Oliveira Santos, Rafael Morais de Souza, Wilson Luiz Rotatori Corrêa

引用次数: 0

The importance of external shocks and global monetary conditions for a small-open economy: The case of Türkiye 外部冲击和全球货币条件对小型开放经济体的重要性：土耳其案例

IF 2

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100170

Gülnihal Tüzün

{"title":"The importance of external shocks and global monetary conditions for a small-open economy: The case of Türkiye","authors":"Gülnihal Tüzün","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100170","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100170","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The channels driving the international macroeconomic and financial shock transmission is important for policy makers for the evaluation of the macroeconomic models and the appropriate policy design. The interdependencies between countries have a significant role on the international spillovers of macroeconomic shocks on the emerging market economies. The purpose of this study is to assess how do the domestic and foreign shocks affect the fundamental macroeconomic variables of a small-open economy, and in particular Türkiye. The domestic supply, demand and monetary policy shocks and their global counterparts are estimated by employing a Bayesian Structural VAR model identified with sign and zero restrictions. After a US monetary tightening shock, the results demonstrate an appreciation of the US Dollar against Turkish lira, a rise in the domestic consumer price level, a contractionary monetary policy response accompanied by a fall in the real output level. This reaction is a strong evidence of the existence of a global interest rate contagion present in the international macroeconomics literature.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"24 3","pages":"Article 100170"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1303070124000246/pdfft?md5=3266e3072f94b233fc61aa01aadbceb6&pid=1-s2.0-S1303070124000246-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142006375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0