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Climate Change and Crop Diversification: Evidence from Bangladesh 气候变化和作物多样化:来自孟加拉国的证据
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2021-07-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3884599
Masanori Matsuura
{"title":"Climate Change and Crop Diversification: Evidence from Bangladesh","authors":"Masanori Matsuura","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3884599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3884599","url":null,"abstract":"Climate shocks in Bangladesh have become much more variable as a result of global climate change. Using national representative panel data in three waves in Bangladesh, I find that farmers tend to diversify their crops in response to climate shocks. Farmers are more likely to diversify their crops in response to aggregate and idiosyncratic climate shocks simultaneously.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121655741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Is Oil-Indexation Still Relevant for Pricing Natural Gas? 石油指数化仍然适用于天然气定价吗?
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3709139
Adila Mchich, H. Till
{"title":"Is Oil-Indexation Still Relevant for Pricing Natural Gas?","authors":"Adila Mchich, H. Till","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3709139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3709139","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines whether oil-indexation is still relevant for pricing natural gas. The authors note that over the years, the gas industry has used oil-indexed long-term contracts that have usually been 20 to 25 years in most parts of the world. But oil-indexation is increasingly losing its economic attractiveness.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116642382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Information in the Term Structure of WTI Crude Oil Futures WTI原油期货期限结构信息
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2020-02-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3547395
Don Bredin, Conall O'Sullivan, Simon E. F. Spencer
{"title":"Information in the Term Structure of WTI Crude Oil Futures","authors":"Don Bredin, Conall O'Sullivan, Simon E. F. Spencer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3547395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3547395","url":null,"abstract":"Nelson-Siegel factors extracted from the term structure of WTI oil futures predict subsequent WTI holding period returns both in-sample and out-of-sample. This predictability is not diminished by augmenting with macroeconomic indicators or oil market specific predictors. The term structure based predictability is distinct from the predictability in macroe- conomic fundamentals. However, controlling for information in the term structure renders oil market specific fundamentals insignificant in predict- ing holding period returns, with the exception of lagged spot returns. We also find that the most significant predictor of holding period returns is a time-varying decay factor in the term structure model.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127567010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic Panel Modelling of Electricity Consumption and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 西非国家经济共同体(ECOWAS)电力消费动态面板模型
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12150
Nasiru Inuwa Kanuri, Sagir Adamu, A. Saidu, Muhammad Bello Sani
{"title":"Dynamic Panel Modelling of Electricity Consumption and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)","authors":"Nasiru Inuwa Kanuri, Sagir Adamu, A. Saidu, Muhammad Bello Sani","doi":"10.1111/opec.12150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12150","url":null,"abstract":"The effect of electricity consumption on economic growth of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Member Countries has been examined during the period 2007–2016. The study applied both static and dynamic panel models in the form of Fixed‐Effect, Random‐Effect, Difference GMM and System GMM. The results revealed that electricity consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth for both static and dynamic panel models. Capital has also been found to have impacted positively and significantly on economic growth in both models. Similarly, labour showed a positive and significant impact on economic growth system GMM model only. Since the study supports electricity consumption led‐growth hypothesis, therefore, it is recommended that ECOWAS countries should explore other alternative sources of electricity generation in order to ensure sufficient and reliable supply of electricity. This can be achieved at individual country level by utilising the potentials of renewable endowments such as biomass, biofuels and solar energy available to each country. Equally, the regional efforts to establish West African Power Pool (WAPP) and West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP) in order to increase the supply as well as grid reliability should be strengthened.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"118 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123240846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Biofuel Mandating and the Green Paradox 生物燃料强制与绿色悖论
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2019-11-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2799227
S. J. Okullo, F. Reynès, M. Hofkes
{"title":"Biofuel Mandating and the Green Paradox","authors":"S. J. Okullo, F. Reynès, M. Hofkes","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2799227","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2799227","url":null,"abstract":"The theory on the green paradox has focused primarily on the consumption of a clean substitute produced using a static technology. In reality, we observe the gradual accumulation of the clean substitute’s capacity, suggesting that supply decisions for the clean substitute and finite carbon resource should both be treated as dynamic. This paper shows that when climate policy is preannounced, and with simultaneous consumption of a finite carbon resource and a clean substitute, myopia in the supply of the latter leads to the green paradox. When clean substitute producers can accumulate capacity and are forward looking, the green paradox may or may not arise, however. In this setting, its occurrence depends on both the size of the discount rate and the remaining stock of carbon resource. These and other drivers of the green paradox are investigated in a multi-producer game-theoretic model calibrated to real-world global oil market data. The timing of mandating policy is shown to be the single most important variable for mitigating the green paradox. Moreover, for EU-2020 and US-2022 style biofuel mandating targets, a rather robust 0.3% decline in production is observed during the premandate phase, suggesting that concerns over the green paradox may be seriously overstated.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132962102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
The Triangular Nexus Causality Among Economic Growth, Trade, FDI and Oil Price: Time Series Analyses of Nigeria 经济增长、贸易、FDI与油价的三角关系因果关系:尼日利亚的时间序列分析
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2019-08-14 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12165
E. Udemba
{"title":"The Triangular Nexus Causality Among Economic Growth, Trade, FDI and Oil Price: Time Series Analyses of Nigeria","authors":"E. Udemba","doi":"10.1111/opec.12165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12165","url":null,"abstract":"The central objective of this work was to test and determine the causality between the selected economic indicators such as trade, FDI, Oil Price and GDP in Nigeria and make a recommendation for a timely policy framework for the betterment of the Nigerian economy. Using Nigerian annual data of 1970–2018 with the application of Granger causality test, we found a unidirectional causality that runs from Oil Price to both FDI and trade and from FDI to trade. There was no causal effect transmitting from either trade to Oil Price or trade to FDI. Also, there was no transmission of causality from GDP growth to any of the selected indicators. Our findings expose the heavy influence of oil via price on the economic performance of Nigeria. This could justify the claim that there is a positive relationship between Oil Price and growth. Hence, supporting the findings that FDI is attracted by the availability of oil and the FDI will turn around influenced the rate of trade via trade openness. This will create avenue for a virtuous economic growth circle if policy implication is managed well.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"101 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132509995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Agriculture Development in the Border and Non-Border Districts of Punjab: A Comparative Analysis 旁遮普边区与非边区农业发展的比较分析
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2019-08-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3436607
Dr Kamini Khanna
{"title":"Agriculture Development in the Border and Non-Border Districts of Punjab: A Comparative Analysis","authors":"Dr Kamini Khanna","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3436607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3436607","url":null,"abstract":"Agriculture development is regarded as a prerequisite for rapid transformation of an economy. Some regions on account of their location disadvantages face some inherent problem regarding development. The present study is an effort to compare the agriculture development in the border and non border districts of Punjab. The study compares the agriculture development in terms of input, output, technological changes and money other parameters. The study is comprehensive in nature and for a period of 1976-2002; which is further divided into three phases i.e. first phase from 1976 to 1984; second phase from 1985-1993 and the third phase from 1994-2002. The study revealed that the border factor does not seem to have large influence on agricultural development. The study revealed that the geographical terror appears to be more determining factor behind agriculture development in the state rather the border factor.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127871978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An analytical study of the efficiency of agricultural investment in Syria 叙利亚农业投资效率分析研究
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2019-07-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3530491
Mohannad Alobid, Szűcs István, M. Zeed, Yasien Alobied
{"title":"An analytical study of the efficiency of agricultural investment in Syria","authors":"Mohannad Alobid, Szűcs István, M. Zeed, Yasien Alobied","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3530491","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3530491","url":null,"abstract":"Investment is considered an essential means for agricultural development, where the success of<br>agricultural development in their ability to enlargement the agricultural investment. The research<br>focuses on the study of GDP, Agricultural GDP, Total investment and Agricultural investment during the period 2004-2016 ''before and after the crisis in Syria''. Via using descriptive economic analysis and econometric analysis tools. The study found some of the most important results: By studying GDP development, Agricultural GDP development, Total investment, and agricultural investment, the results show that there was an increase on that analysis in the period between 2004-2011 and then began to decline from 2011 within the starting point of the crisis. Through calculating some economic indicators to measure the efficiency of agricultural investment we can say that between 2004 until 2011 there was efficiency on the investment of agriculture after that the deterioration began from 2011 until now.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133512056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Interfuel Substitution: Evidence from the Markov Switching Minflex Laurent Demand System with BEKK Errors 燃料间替代:来自具有BEKK误差的马尔可夫切换Minflex - Laurent需求系统的证据
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2019-06-28 DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.6.ASER
Apostolos Serletis, Libo Xu
{"title":"Interfuel Substitution: Evidence from the Markov Switching Minflex Laurent Demand System with BEKK Errors","authors":"Apostolos Serletis, Libo Xu","doi":"10.5547/01956574.40.6.ASER","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.40.6.ASER","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate interfuel substitution in the United States using the minflex Laurent demand system and a century of data (from 1919 to 2012). We relax the assumption of constant parameters in the demand system, and also relax the homoskedasticity assumption, instead assuming that the covariance matrix of the errors is time-varying. Our results are consistent with theoretical regularity and indicate that the Morishima elasticities of substitution are always positive for all pairs of the energy goods (suggesting substitutability), but exhibit large swings across two regimes, generally being higher in the high demand volatility regime before the 1950s.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125679418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Data Documentation for the German Electricity Market Used for the Calibration of the GATE Model - NDP 2025 (Version 2015) 用于GATE模型校准的德国电力市场数据文件- NDP 2025(2015版)
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3365830
M. Ambrosius, Veronika Grimm, Bastian Rückel, C. Sölch, Gregor Zöttl
{"title":"Data Documentation for the German Electricity Market Used for the Calibration of the GATE Model - NDP 2025 (Version 2015)","authors":"M. Ambrosius, Veronika Grimm, Bastian Rückel, C. Sölch, Gregor Zöttl","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3365830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3365830","url":null,"abstract":"In this data documentation, we provide detailed information on the data that is used in order to calibrate the GATE model. Since we are looking at the hypothetical German electricity market in 2035 and the resulting investment incentives, we have to select all exogenous parameters based on future forecasts for this period. We consider the German market area since excellent data are available from the political processes that accompany the network expansion planning procedure. In order to ensure a high degree of consistency of the exogenous parameters - and in order to allow comparisons with other forecasts for that market area - we predominantly use input parameters from the Network Development Plan Electricity (NDP) which is the official basis for network expansion planning in Germany. Hereby, we mainly rely on the NDP 2025, where network expansion required until 2025 is determined, in its 2015 version.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115431599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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