ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture最新文献_第2页

Global Crude Oil Market Shocks and Global Commodity Prices 全球原油市场冲击与全球商品价格

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12143

M. Melichar, Bebonchu Atems

引用次数: 12

Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest 亚马逊雨林的最佳环境目标

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25636

J. Assunção, R. Mcmillan, Joshua Murphy, Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues

{"title":"Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest","authors":"J. Assunção, R. Mcmillan, Joshua Murphy, Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues","doi":"10.3386/W25636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25636","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper sets out a data-driven approach for targeting environmental policies optimally in order to combat deforestation. We focus on the Amazon, the world’s most extensive rainforest, where Brazil’s federal government issued a ‘Priority List’ of municipalities in 2008 – a blacklist to be targeted with more intense environmental monitoring and enforcement. First, we estimate the causal impact of the Priority List on deforestation (along with other relevant treatment effects) using ‘changes-in-changes’ (Athey and Imbens, 2006), finding that it reduced deforestation by 43 percent and cut emissions by almost 50 million tons of carbon. Second, we develop a novel framework for computing targeted optimal blacklists that draws on our treatment effect estimates, assigning municipalities to a counterfactual list that minimizes total deforestation subject to realistic resource constraints. We show that the ex-post optimal list would result in carbon emissions over 10 percent lower than the actual list, amounting to savings of more than $1.2 billion (34% of the total value of the Priority List), with emissions over 23 percent lower on average than a randomly selected list. The approach we propose is relevant both for assessing targeted counterfactual policies to reduce deforestation and for quantifying the impacts of policy targeting more generally.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128915875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 33

Importing Inputs for Climate Change Mitigation: The Case of Agricultural Productivity 为减缓气候变化进口投入物:以农业生产力为例

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3329528

R. García-Verdú, Alexis Meyer‐Cirkel, Akira Sasahara, Hans Weisfeld

引用次数: 8

Convergence of European Natural Gas Prices 欧洲天然气价格趋同

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2018-12-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3297088

A. Bastianin, M. Galeotti, Michele Polo

{"title":"Convergence of European Natural Gas Prices","authors":"A. Bastianin, M. Galeotti, Michele Polo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3297088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3297088","url":null,"abstract":"Over the period 2015-2050 the consumption of natural gas of European OECD countries is expected to grow more than the consumption of any other energy source. Although these countries are interconnected and in most cases share a common currency, their wholesale national gas markets are highly heterogeneous. We study the determinants of cross-country convergence of natural gas prices for industrial consumers in fourteen European countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the notions of pairwise, relative and convergence. We show that there is evidence of pairwise price convergence and that some key characteristics of gas markets, such as the maturity of trading hubs and the degree of interconnection, are positively associated with the existence of a convergence process. This result carries over to the notion of sigma-convergence and is robust to a number of changes in the implementation of the statistical tests. The analysis of relative convergence points to the existence of price-growth convergence, while price-level convergence is not supported by the data. Lastly, we assess the the short-run implications of price convergence focusing on the speed of reversion to equilibrium after a system-wide shocks hits the cointegrating relation.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122050172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 31

Are Published Oil Price Forecasts Efficient? 公布的油价预测是否有效?

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2018-10-08 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12138

H. Moghaddam, Jalal Dehnavi, F. Wirl

引用次数: 2

The Globalisation‐Regionalisation Debate in International Crude Oil Markets: Old Wine in New Bottles 国际原油市场的全球化-区域化辩论:新瓶装旧酒

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12136

A. B. Dar

引用次数: 3

Global Warming and Socioeconomic Activities: Impact of Labor Productivity 全球变暖与社会经济活动:劳动生产率的影响

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2018-07-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3219603

Ken’ichi Matsumoto

{"title":"Global Warming and Socioeconomic Activities: Impact of Labor Productivity","authors":"Ken’ichi Matsumoto","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3219603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3219603","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change (global warming) has various impacts on human society and economic activities. One of the important aspects of global warming impacts is labor productivity through temperature increases. Higher temperature negatively affects the efficiency at work. In addition, the impact can vary by region because of differences in the economic structure and the climate conditions. The purpose of this study is to evaluate global warming impact on future economic activities through changes in labor productivity. To evaluate the global warming impact on future economic activities, we used a computable general equilibrium model considering the relationship between temperature and labor productivity. To calculate the future temperature, we used the MAGICC6 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change version 6). For the future scenarios, we used business-as-usual (BaU) and 2°C scenarios. In the global level, gross domestic product (GDP) was 0.19-0.32% smaller for the BaU scenario when the global warming impact was considered, while the impact on GDP was smaller for the 2°C scenario (around 0.02%). However, the impact differs by region. For primary energy supply, the total supply was 0.33-0.63% smaller for the BaU scenario when the global warming impact was considered, while the impact was slight for the 2 °C scenario (0.01-0.02%). Consequently, CO2 emissions were also affected. In the BaU scenario, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industrial process were 0.34-1.18% smaller when the global warming impact was considered. These results suggest that larger the temperature increases, the larger the impact. However, although the degree was not large, it is indicated that the socioeconomic impacts to achieve the 2 °C target were smaller than previously believed.","PeriodicalId":403142,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128313725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investment Effects of Pricing Schemes for Non-Convex Markets 非凸市场定价方案的投资效应

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2018-06-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3198423

J. Mays, D. Morton, R. O'Neill

引用次数: 15

An Econometric Analysis of the Solar Auctions in India 印度太阳能拍卖的计量经济学分析

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2018-05-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3713685

S. Bhasker

引用次数: 0

The Risk of Skewness and Kurtosis in Oil Market and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns 石油市场偏峰度风险与股票收益横截面

ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Agriculture Pub Date : 2018-04-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3168191

Nima Ebrahimi, Craig Pirrong

引用次数: 1